True odds calculation

[firlandsfarm]

And also , if by TRUE' you mean the actual winning odds after the race is over , you fall into the GAMBLERS FALLACY trap !.

decomez6, after the race is run the winner has a probability of 1 and the probability of all other runners is 0! Now that would be a fallacy!

I agree with the other items in your long list and would add "weather" and "is the horse up for it"!

[decomez6]

And also , if by TRUE' you mean the actual winning odds after the race is over , you fall into the GAMBLERS FALLACY trap !.

decomez6, after the race is run the winner has a probability of 1 and the probability of all other runners is 0! Now that would be a fallacy!

I agree with the other items in your long list and would add "weather" and "is the horse up for it"!

if the winner was not the favourite before the start of the race , i bet you will go for the loosing favourite in the next race , whenever its due to run next , that s the fallacy compouded.

[decomez6]

One aspect of seeking the holy grail of true odds (probability) hasn't been discussed and I don't have the solution, I'm just laying it on the table. Having gathered all the information together either as exclusive facts or bundled into 'ratings' you then have to convert that information into probabilities (odds). I have been searching for years to find the formula for that final step. I don't think there is one! So it all comes down to the interpretation of the data, not the data itself. You can piece together the best, most informative, most relevant set of data and screw it up at the last step!

Really? What's so hard to gather data, then "streamline what you feel has a greater preponderance and weight it accordingly." (like wearthefoxhat suggests) then sum weights for each runner and finally calc odds from it?
Obviously the trickiest and most time consuming part of that "not so hard process" is the 2nd part, but the last one is a simple math.

I'm not saying that this will be "true odds" but at least it will be your odds, your starting point for experimentation!

Yeah, I'd say that sums it up.

Not saying the following is the answer, but there are some interesting aspects to it that can be converted to excel.

https://www.informracing.com/betting-tissue-tool-1/

now add the new kid on the block and all the new data ! TPD ratings ...thats the real fox magic

[goat68]

All markets are driven by supply and demand.

There's not much difference between opinion and supply and demand ... supply and demand is the application of opinion.

Not much difference granted but a difference. Option alone only works as a constraint where the hive all have the same stake/effect. It would only take 1 rogue option with deep pockets to affect supply and demand which is what actually moves prices.

Besides, supply and demand is easier to use in an equation than 'opinion'

I struggle with understanding Supply and Demand in a Sports market, take this graph:

Screenshot 2021-12-30 at 15.52.46.png

I can see "Demand" basically equates to "Backers" and "Supply" to "Layers", as at a high Demand(would like to Back) price there is very little Supply(would like to Lay), and similarly at a high Supply(would like to lay) price there is very little Demand(would like to Back). So naturally the price sits where the "would like to Back" == "would like to Lay". This gives you no idea on where the price might "move" to, but if you can measure for example when Demand(would like to Back) is greater than Supply(would like to Lay), then you know at least briefly the market will balance by moving lower in price.

I must have spent 6months+ earlier in then year trying to create a bot to make something from pure technicals for this but failed...
Hence, i've now moved to modelling opinion, and market reaction.

[goat68]

Also a market early on can easily sit at say DEMAND"Would like to Back" at 11.5, and SUPPLY"Would like to Lay" at 8.2, with a big gap in the middle...
therefore none the wiser !!

[goat68]

You've still got to "Anticipate" price movement some how...?
Please someone try and explain to me how measuring technically supply and demand is possible, and how in any way that "anticipates" price movement?

[Tetras]

There's not much difference between opinion and supply and demand ... supply and demand is the application of opinion.

Not much difference granted but a difference. Option alone only works as a constraint where the hive all have the same stake/effect. It would only take 1 rogue option with deep pockets to affect supply and demand which is what actually moves prices.

Besides, supply and demand is easier to use in an equation than 'opinion'

I struggle with understanding Supply and Demand in a Sports market, take this graph:
Screenshot 2021-12-30 at 15.52.46.png
I can see "Demand" basically equates to "Backers" and "Supply" to "Layers", as at a high Demand(would like to Back) price there is very little Supply(would like to Lay), and similarly at a high Supply(would like to lay) price there is very little Demand(would like to Back). So naturally the price sits where the "would like to Back" == "would like to Lay". This gives you no idea on where the price might "move" to, but if you can measure for example when Demand(would like to Back) is greater than Supply(would like to Lay), then you know at least briefly the market will balance by moving lower in price.

I must have spent 6months+ earlier in then year trying to create a bot to make something from pure technicals for this but failed...
Hence, i've now moved to modelling opinion, and market reaction.

My understanding of it is that the price always moves to the point that nobody is interested. Layers mean it's (perceived to be) priced too low, backers mean it's (perceived to be) priced too high. When there's no interest then it will often drift just because of the book %, the same as it does when there's a lot of interest in the fav. The demand and supply is the appetite for risk, based on the perceived value. If the activity indicates opinion then less activity is more likely to find value, so if you're involved when everybody else is, it's probably too late to find any value (but a good time to be scalping).

[goat68]

Also a market early on can easily sit at say DEMAND"Would like to Back" at 11.5, and SUPPLY"Would like to Lay" at 8.2, with a big gap in the middle...
therefore none the wiser !!

although just thinking about that that's not right, as someone "demanding" to Back at 11.5 is reliant on the "supply" of someone wanting to Lay at 11.5

[goat68]

you can see why it drove me mad for 6 months !!

[decomez6]

[/quote][/quote]

So naturally the price sits where the "would like to Back" == "would like to Lay". This gives you no idea on where the price might "move" to, but if you can measure for example when Demand(would like to Back) is greater than Supply(would like to Lay), then you know at least briefly the market will balance by moving lower in price.
I must have spent 6months+ earlier in then year trying to create a bot to make something from pure technicals for this but failed...
Hence, i've now moved to modelling opinion, and market reaction.

a bot that knows exactly how many total number ticks are on the lay book v/s the back book below or above your entry point , should give you a pivot point when both sides have equal amounts of the latter.
i made a bot doing exactly that , all using BA , a lot of indexing but do-able .
in my opinion the problem i see = XMATCHING..... the invisible hand of `fairness`. things dont work as expected , thus increasing the random nature of the market .

[ShaunWhite]

you can see why it drove me mad for 6 months !!

You're over complicating it, or rather the sports market terminology is over complicating it.
Back= Sell.
Lay = Buy.
Supply = Offers.
Demand = Takers.

And as an aside the commodity being traded is a futures contract on an asset (horse) that will be priced at 1 or 0 at the time the contract expires (market closes).

That's all there is to it. Could be a horse or it could be pork bellies.

[goat68]

you can see why it drove me mad for 6 months !!

You're over complicating it, or rather the sports market terminology is over complicating it.
Back= Sell.
Lay = Buy.
Supply = Offers.
Demand = Takers.

And as an aside the commodity being traded is a futures contract on an asset (horse) that will be priced at 1 or 0 at the time the contract expires (market closes).

That's all there is to it. Could be a horse or it could be pork bellies.

right, so I can't see how that alone helps with trading, you've still have to make your own assessment of opinion, be it form, order flow, .....?

[ShaunWhite]

Re what the other guys have said.... Potentially the most interesting thread for ages.

[goat68]

Ie. you need to anticipate somehow future Demand(takers) ??

[goat68]

the old conundrum, historical (demand/takers) or historical(supply/offers), are no predictor of the future, especially when big future orders or XMatching come into it ?