In play Betting Diary Challenge 2022

[Dallas]

Kai: thanks about the software. What’s trading price action? Do you mean simply following the trend?

Finished trading for the day. Nice profitable opportunities this evening at Marseille, Inter, Porto, Real Madrid. Nice profit for the day overall, without any software in sight, and only max 5-10 min of match watching overall.

I made a huge profit today without using any money, no match watching, and no posting

[footysystems]

Kai: thanks about the software. What’s trading price action? Do you mean simply following the trend?

Finished trading for the day. Nice profitable opportunities this evening at Marseille, Inter, Porto, Real Madrid. Nice profit for the day overall, without any software in sight, and only max 5-10 min of match watching overall.

I made a huge profit today without using any money, no match watching, and no posting

Funny you should say that Dallas so did I went to work and worked a 12 hour shift

[On_The_Edge]

Many narrow minded sceptics on the forum who think only they can be profitable and nobody else with another way of thinking.

Mock me all you want. Doesn’t make any difference to my approach, strategy , and profits.

[Trader Pat]

Even though we make a living from losers, some people seem to be trying to help so you can either take the comments on board or take them on the chin.

I’ll see if I’ll also be taking profits from losers . I already took some today.

I wouldn't get carried away just yet. Backing odds on and laying odds against isn't a recipe for success long-term. I can see the logic with the Porto trade but the rest of them seemed a bit hopeful from a trading point of view especially as you weren't watching the games. You say that's the point of the challenge but anyone who trades football for a living or those who make a decent second income from it will tell you that watching the game you're trading is paramount.

To be honest I kind of tuned out after you said Man City should have been priced at 2 for a home game against Chelsea. Think that proves you're ability to judge value still has a ways to go.

Good luck though.

[footysystems]

Many narrow minded sceptics on the forum who think only they can be profitable and nobody else with another way of thinking.

Mock me all you want. Doesn’t make any difference to my approach, strategy , and profits.

It's not narrow mindedness it's real life. You have to be way ahead of the crowd to make any money off football...

[On_The_Edge]

Even though we make a living from losers, some people seem to be trying to help so you can either take the comments on board or take them on the chin.

I’ll see if I’ll also be taking profits from losers . I already took some today.

I wouldn't get carried away just yet. Backing odds on and laying odds against isn't a recipe for success long-term. I can see the logic with the Porto trade...

To be honest I kind of tuned out after you said Man City should have been priced at 2 for a home game against Chelsea. Think that proves you're ability to judge value still has a ways to go.

Good luck though.

In your opinion what would have been fair odds for Man City ?

Because to me , out of 10 games, I’d expect Man City to win 4- 5 against Chelsea, maybe 6 at a stretch.

But I admit. I am not too knowledgeable about premier league, I never liked watching it. I prefer continental football - Ligue 1, La Liga, Turkish super lig, etc.

I try to look for prices that appear way out of line. And come up with my own prices in mind based on experience. It’s my opinion that the market tends to overvalue or under value some teams consistently.

But not always. Some bets I take where I believe the price is off, but not by much.

Like with Inter game earlier. I had reason to believe that Inter were a bit too low before the match already. But there was no certainty for me there. I took a look at SofaScore, the odds and decided to lay Inter at 2.54 after half time. This was more on the speculative side indeed, but I am convinced value was there.

[jamesedwards]

Many narrow minded sceptics on the forum who think only they can be profitable and nobody else with another way of thinking.

Mock me all you want. Doesn’t make any difference to my approach, strategy , and profits.

To make a profit trading football (or pretty much any sport) on Betfair you need an edge that is big enough to more than cover the spread and commission.

Examples of an edge are:
> faster speed than the majority of the market (system/software/low latency video)
> better knowledge than the majority of the market (data, injury/team news, inside info etc).
> an ability to read the market and predict future price movement.

Betting on selections because they 'feel' good value is not an edge. You are betting against a market of traders with faster speed, better knowledge and better market reading ability than you.

In the long term you will lose unless you identify an edge and work to make it as big as you can.

[footysystems]

Many narrow minded sceptics on the forum who think only they can be profitable and nobody else with another way of thinking.

Mock me all you want. Doesn’t make any difference to my approach, strategy , and profits.

To make a profit trading football (or pretty much any sport) on Betfair you need an edge that is big enough to more than cover the spread and commission.

Examples of an edge are:
> faster speed than the majority of the market (system/software/low latency video)
> better knowledge than the majority of the market (data, injury/team news, inside info etc).
> an ability to read the market and predict future price movement.

Betting on selections because they 'feel' good value is not an edge. You are betting against a market of traders with faster speed, better knowledge and better market reading ability than you.

In the long term you will lose unless you identify and work on your edge.

Hit the nail on the head James

[On_The_Edge]

Many narrow minded sceptics on the forum who think only they can be profitable and nobody else with another way of thinking.

Mock me all you want. Doesn’t make any difference to my approach, strategy , and profits.

To make a profit trading football (or pretty much any sport) on Betfair you need an edge that is big enough to more than cover the spread and commission.

Examples of an edge are:
> faster speed than the majority of the market (system/software/low latency video)
> better knowledge than the majority of the market (data, injury/team news, inside info etc).
> an ability to read the market and predict future price movement.

Betting on selections because they 'feel' good value is not an edge. You are betting against a market of traders with faster speed, better knowledge and better market reading ability than you.

In the long term you will lose unless you identify an edge and work to make it as big as you can.

I’m not simply bettIng on selections that feel good. I have predetermined prices in mind. And for that reason I avoid most matches. Because in most matches for me it’s not obvious what the price should be.

[arch4672]

anyone who trades football for a living or those who make a decent second income from it will tell you that watching the game you're trading is paramount.

I don't think that's true. I don't watch matches and make a steady amount of money from football and know of people who do not watch matches and make a living from it.

[footysystems]

anyone who trades football for a living or those who make a decent second income from it will tell you that watching the game you're trading is paramount.

I don't think that's true. I don't watch matches and make a steady amount of money from football and know of people who do not watch matches and make a living from it.

They are doing very well then because the markets are so efficient and there is very little value. Personally you need a very strong edge to make it pay... But would be very open to examples ?

[Trader Pat]

In your opinion what would have been fair odds for Man City ?

Because to me , out of 10 games, I’d expect Man City to win 4- 5 against Chelsea, maybe 6 at a stretch.

I try to look for prices that appear way out of line. And come up with my own prices in mind based on experience. It’s my opinion that the market tends to overvalue or under value some teams consistently.

But not always. Some bets I take where I believe the price is off, but not by much.

Like with Inter game earlier. I had reason to believe that Inter were a bit too low before the match already. But there was no certainty for me there. I took a look at SofaScore, the odds and decided to lay Inter at 2.54 after half time. This was more on the speculative side indeed, but I am convinced value was there.

For me the odds City at kick off were about right, think they went off around 1.64. I wouldn't have backed them at that price but like I said earlier that doesn't mean its value to lay them either. The last time City were priced at or near evens for a Premier League home game was against Liverpool last season when they were 5 points behind them. In yesterdays game before kick off they were 10 points ahead of second placed Chelsea.

Similiar situation for me with Inter. I wouldn't have backed them at 2.24ish against Atalanta but I wouldn't have laid them either. Atalanta have a lot of injuries and they had a lot of kids on the bench compared to Inter who were able to bring on Martinez, Dumfries and Correa.

[Kai]

Kai: thanks about the software. What’s trading price action? Do you mean simply following the trend?

You could have just Googled it tbh : https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-action.asp

Better suited to your other preoff thread Although inplay markets can be volatile as well

[jamesedwards]

I’m not simply bettIng on selections that feel good. I have predetermined prices in mind. And for that reason I avoid most matches. Because in most matches for me it’s not obvious what the price should be.

Multi-billion pound bookmakers with teams of statisticians, in-depth market knowledge, and banks of computing power need a >105% overround to lay against to beat the market and make money. What makes you think you are so much better than them that you can be profitable laying into a sub-100% overround with 2% commission? What's your edge?

[Trader Pat]

anyone who trades football for a living or those who make a decent second income from it will tell you that watching the game you're trading is paramount.

I don't think that's true. I don't watch matches and make a steady amount of money from football and know of people who do not watch matches and make a living from it.

I do ok from trading games I don't watch but to take it to the next level I think you need to be watching as many games you trade as possible.

Only so much stats can tell you.