Trading What I see !?

[PapaShango]

Looks like the bitcoin graph, goat.

I have ran some analysis on your graph and you appear to have avoided the dreaded death cross. It looks quite clear to me, that the goat dogebot, is going to the moon !

[goat68]

Looks like the bitcoin graph, goat.

I have ran some analysis on your graph and you appear to have avoided the dreaded death cross. It looks quite clear to me, that the goat dogebot, is going to the moon !

Thank you for the analysis, much appreciated, good to know i'm off to the moon

[wearthefoxhat]

Just to add something that is relevant in poker that is just as important in trading....

strat.png

[goat68]

Just to add something that is relevant in poker that is just as important in trading....


strat.png

thanks! trying to workout which side of the fence I am!

Really con't figure reason for current drawdown, so I suppose that make me a Winner

[ShaunWhite]

Just to add something that is relevant in poker that is just as important in trading....

V true.
And it's not just poker it's the standard scientific approach : To paraphrase Richard Feynman 'try to find evidence that you're wrong rather than confirmation that you're right' and it generally its about the difference between falsifiable and unfalsifiable beliefs and confirmation bias.

[goat68]

Just to add something that is relevant in poker that is just as important in trading....

V true.
And it's not just poker it's the standard scientific approach : To paraphrase Richard Feynman 'try to find evidence that you're wrong rather than confirmation that you're right' and it generally its about the difference between falsifiable and unfalsifiable beliefs and confirmation bias.

So as I can't find evidence that I am wrong, that's good yes?

[foxwood]

So as I can't find evidence that I am wrong, that's good yes?

Or your confirmation bias is stopping you thinking outside the box as to why you may be wrong.

Your latest pl shows something odd and very regular started on about the 18th or thereabouts - the behaviour is very different. Even though it is a small sample it is like 2 different sets of data joined together - which may still be a long term repeating pattern !

Did your theory expect that to happen - if not something has changed in the markets - or you' may be just plain wrong. If it was expected then don't panic.

[goat68]

So as I can't find evidence that I am wrong, that's good yes?

Or your confirmation bias is stopping you thinking outside the box as to why you may be wrong.

Your latest pl shows something odd and very regular started on about the 18th or thereabouts - the behaviour is very different. Even though it is a small sample it is like 2 different sets of data joined together - which may still be a long term repeating pattern !

Did your theory expect that to happen - if not something has changed in the markets - or you' may be just plain wrong. If it was expected then don't panic.

So backtest analytics shows a max drawdown of about -£100, but of course there's a certain amount of variance on that, so the January drawdown of about -£150 is not beyond likely probability, also factoring in seasonal variation may have an influence. However I have no data from last January.
The change from 18th is quite noticeable yes. My edge is based on one setup, working in either direction, so two strategies. It's possible the "edge" is based on trading against a set of market participants who have removed/changed their methods such that my "edge" has disappeared, however a 10day period is statistically small to make that judgement.

The markets evolve so I might be unlucky that the people i'm taking money off have decided to change and keep it!!

[goat68]

This is the risk in this game, you backtest and create a strategy that appears to work over the last 6months, for it all to change going forward...

[goat68]

As Shaun point out, the "red" line is the important one, I can have variance on the blue line due to hedging variance

[goat68]

I'm sure it will turn north again soon...

Screenshot 2022-01-29 at 20.21.47.png

[ruthlessimon]

I'm sure it will turn north again soon...

What was the max drawdown during the backtest? Also how many bets?

[Anbell]

I'm sure it will turn north again soon...
Screenshot 2022-01-29 at 20.21.47.png

It's best not to be sure about anything in this biz.

[wearthefoxhat]

Just to add something that is relevant in poker that is just as important in trading....

V true.
And it's not just poker it's the standard scientific approach : To paraphrase Richard Feynman 'try to find evidence that you're wrong rather than confirmation that you're right' and it generally its about the difference between falsifiable and unfalsifiable beliefs and confirmation bias.

So as I can't find evidence that I am wrong, that's good yes?

That's a good sign for sure. Of course it's ongoing using an "assess-plan-do-review" approach.

APDR.png

Also to avoid;

"It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows." Epictetus

[ShaunWhite]

also factoring in seasonal variation may have an influence.

Dog racing doesn't really have much seasonality, Pups are born all year round whereas foals tend to be born in early spring, any later and it's disadvantageous because all horses have an official birthday of 1st Jan. There isn't really a time when you get a new crop of dogs as you do with horses, or a time when the code changes like from NH to Flat.