Trading What I see !?
So January's PnL... Do I turn to paper trading or not...? Drawdown of -£150 hi to lo, that's about 50% larger than the largest drawdown in my 6month backtest sample.
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ShaunWhite
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I'd have switched back to min stakes at the green arrow, or a just after at +50 if I was feeling flush. The warning sign being a lower low than the trend of lows (purple). Then maybe just gone to sim only mode at +25ish. I tried not to hindsight by revealing the chart from the left with my hand over it
One thing that seems to seperate the more/less experienced is that with more experience you respond more quickly and/or alter your stakes more often. 'Hope' doesn't pay the bills so the first time you get concerned that you're leaking money you play the safe/long game and cool off, and it joins the others on min stakes or sim only to be monitored for improvement. And if you see improvement in a meaningful way you can start to build the stakes again.
People think auto trading (aka data) is cut and dried but it takes similar interpretation to manual trading in a way. Change too often and you do nothing but chase ghosts but change too slowly and you have bigger losses that erode any progress you might have made. The fact you're even asking if you should pause this means the money isn't big enough to matter yet, add two zeros and it looks dreadful. You'd have been saying you thought +5 grand was a good month, but now explaining to your missus how you lost 12½ grand in a fortnight
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wearthefoxhat
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Just a reminder, (to myself) as well.
The biggest edge we all have is choosing when/what to bet/trade. The old F.O.M.O. starts to kick in when there are so many markets to exploit and everyone else looks as though they're hoovering up all the cash.
The biggest edge we all have is choosing when/what to bet/trade. The old F.O.M.O. starts to kick in when there are so many markets to exploit and everyone else looks as though they're hoovering up all the cash.
Interesting, so I thought the whole point of automation was to remove the emotion, yet deciding when to scale/switch off brings in emotion, unless you can follow exactly a very strict rule yourself. Using TA like above maybe a way if you can stick to it, although determining when the trend has resumed is fraught with danger, auto PnL can flat line for quite a whileShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:07 amI'd have switched back to min stakes at the green arrow, or a just after at +50 if I was feeling flush. The warning sign being a lower low than the trend of lows (purple). Then maybe just gone to sim only mode at +25ish. I tried not to hindsight by revealing the chart from the left with my hand over it
One thing that seems to seperate the more/less experienced is that with more experience you respond more quickly and/or alter your stakes more often. 'Hope' doesn't pay the bills so the first time you get concerned that you're leaking money you play the safe/long game and cool off, and it joins the others on min stakes or sim only to be monitored for improvement. And if you see improvement in a meaningful way you can start to build the stakes again.
People think auto trading (aka data) is cut and dried but it takes similar interpretation to manual trading in a way. Change too often and you do nothing but chase ghosts but change too slowly and you have bigger losses that erode any progress you might have made. The fact you're even asking if you should pause this means the money isn't big enough to matter yet, add two zeros and it looks dreadful. You'd have been saying you thought +5 grand was a good month, but now explaining to your missus how you lost 12½ grand in a fortnight
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ShaunWhite
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I've always said that autotrading has all the same emotions as manual trading but just experienced in bullet time. With auto you have time to be considered but its a slow painful consideration, manual trading is a more fast paced but at least you have the chance to feel like a hero 10 mins after a disaster rather than in 6 months time.
And regarding strategy change or strategy death, there's no hard and fast rules. As you know I worked around quants for over a decade and saw how some did better than others even though theoretically they were all working with the same maths. That's because quant trading isn't just about the maths it's about the interpretation of it and that's true in all data science. That improves with experience but undoubtedly some people are just better than others at aquiring that indefinable 'feel'.
Looks like you've pretty much exhausted it. Doesn't mean to say that because you can program and collect loads of data and use Flumine, Python, C# etc that you are going to come up with a winning strategy. Your 'edge' isn't having those skills. It's about coming up with suitable ideas/strategies/models in the first place. Remember PW's Oak tree video.
I suggest you start and delve into BetAngel Servants. Majority of them are the basis of sensible strategies/ideas. All you've got to do is develop one to be consistently profitable
Last edited by Cardano on Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
With all respect to Bet Angel Servants devs, it will be a "downgrade" comparing to the good selfwriten bot. I dont know, maybe you are saying this with some kind of philosophy of "minimalism" or "enlightenment".
Last thing Goat wants to lose is an advantage over others!
You obviously missed my point.napshnap wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:42 pmWith all respect to Bet Angel Servants devs, it will be a "downgrade" comparing to the good selfwriten bot. I dont know, maybe you are saying this with some kind of philosophy of "minimalism" or "enlightenment".
Last thing Goat wants to lose is an advantage over others!
I didn't suggest he gave up his skill set - his problem is he hasn't got the right strategy.
In fact I'm suggesting that he looks at Servants to increase his strategy skillset.
Didn't you say that some of your losses were relatively huge one-timers? I seem to remember you lost something like £50 in one shot? If that's the case, isn't there something you could do to cut those out? Whether it be a condition on the amount of money in the market, the time of day, etc? Apologies if I misremembered the prior happenings.
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ShaunWhite
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With respect to goat he's only been doing the dogs for about 3 months part-time, and he's close to net breakeven over the month which was for him maybe 500+ markets. That's not easy. I think giving up at the first sign of difficulty and starting from scratch again would be a mistake.
He just needs to find a little more patience, be encouraged by getting to net breakeven, and having now accumulated a decent log of actual bets he should spend some time learning what they tell him. That should find him another percent or two which would turn this into a nice little side income. This is just the stage in the whole process where he needs to analyse and carefully refine not a reason to give up on it.
Thanks Shaun, yes im actually running some analysis on better staking based on your comments yesterday on how you would have scaled back.. I m dubious on it, but we'll see what some testing tells me....ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:41 amWith respect to goat he's only been doing the dogs for about 3 months part-time, and he's close to net breakeven over the month which was for him maybe 500+ markets. That's not easy. I think giving up at the first sign of difficulty and starting from scratch again would be a mistake.
He just needs to find a little more patience, be encouraged by getting to net breakeven, and having now accumulated a decent log of actual bets he should spend some time learning what they tell him. That should find him another percent or two which would turn this into a nice little side income. This is just the stage in the whole process where he needs to analyse and carefully refine not a reason to give up on it.