How to determine what is value?

[Ryanolifelix]

how to determine value?

if a favourite is shortening and the 2nd is drifting.

Where's the point of determing if it's passed its value or the opposite as in reached better value for either back or lay?

just say the odds are 5 and that's where the majority of traded money has been. Let's say it starts to shorten... how do we determine what is the value to the layers?

is horse form an area of calculating this? Or is determining the value set purely from the odds have moved from and to?

Thanks. Ryan.

[wearthefoxhat]

how to determine value?

if a favourite is shortening and the 2nd is drifting.

Where's the point of determing if it's passed its value or the opposite as in reached better value for either back or lay?

just say the odds are 5 and that's where the majority of traded money has been. Let's say it starts to shorten... how do we determine what is the value to the layers?

is horse form an area of calculating this? Or is determining the value set purely from the odds have moved from and to?

Thanks. Ryan.

I sometimes go off on a tangent, but here's my thoughts on it FWIW.

Value in it's purest form, is subjective. With either B2L or L2B trades it's important to find a starting point. The starting point will likely come from some research from previous data and the market it applies to. There's no easy, quick fit answer, but there's no harm in trying to find one.

With B2L types, there has to some evidence of a likelihood to steam or something else close in market likely to drift. The D.O.B. types are likely to steam along with strongly tipped types that everyone will want to back.

With L2B types, ideally, you need to find ones that are likely to lose or run a poor race, but the market has overestimated it's chance of winning.

The area of value in straight betting/laying is another subject in it's own right. My view on it that, is you need to evaluate the variables/attributes within the race itself on each runner. By forming the whole picture, a view on a runner to back or lay will then be dependant on comparing your converted tissue price, against the current market price.

[Tetras]

My answer would depend if you're asking from a trading POV (purely numbers) or a betting one. If you're trading then the truth is I don't know, I guess and with the time I guess better.

You can make a judgement in any race though, as how to realistic the movement is, relative to the market.

With the betting, there's lots of factors that change the perception of value, it can just be that the jockey is having a good run, or it has started to rain.