I have a question.
If I place an order on an event occurring at 20s. ( Any event this is hypothetical) for €1
It steams to 10s. So therefore I remove my liability and I've a free bet worth €10.
It then reverts to 20s again. I place another order for €1 @ 20s. Have I created a value trade at 20s that pays out €29?
Hypothetical Question re Value.
That depends on its true chances but in all probabilities, if it traded between 10 and 20, yes, 29 is very likely to be value. However, if its true chances were above 20 you'd be better off sticking with the free bet.Padawanbewbie wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:41 pmI have a question.
If I place an order on an event occurring at 20s. ( Any event this is hypothetical) for €1
It steams to 10s. So therefore I remove my liability and I've a free bet worth €10.
It then reverts to 20s again. I place another order for €1 @ 20s. Have I created a value trade at 20s that pays out €29?
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10605
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Backing for £1 at 20 and laying at 10 is a profitable trade. You've made £1 across the card no matter which wins, or you have a free £10 bet on the horse you traded.
But taking that £1 and spending it on a back bet at 20s might or might not be value. If the horse still looked good then it might be good value but if it's running around in the car park it obvioulsy isn't.
But taking that £1 and spending it on a back bet at 20s might or might not be value. If the horse still looked good then it might be good value but if it's running around in the car park it obvioulsy isn't.
-
Padawanbewbie
- Posts: 46
- Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:39 am
I'm thinking of it in terms of lots and lots of trades through a tennis match where the price spikes up and down through the match. I'd be hoping the volume and value would outweigh the variance.
Just some thoughts
Just some thoughts
The decision at the point to fully hedge the profit or let the trade run as a value bet shouldn't make any difference in the long-term. The important part is the actual trade from A to B.
If the sample size is large enough over thousands of markets it should even out either way, so you would net the same result with more variance getting there.
I remember a trading course that focused on "free bets" instead of hedging as if it was some magic trick, in the long run doesn't add any value and is more likely to mess with psychology
If the sample size is large enough over thousands of markets it should even out either way, so you would net the same result with more variance getting there.
I remember a trading course that focused on "free bets" instead of hedging as if it was some magic trick, in the long run doesn't add any value and is more likely to mess with psychology