Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Goat, are you sure you even need to hedge/close your bets? Check it, maybe it'll be more profitable and generate more commission.

hi thanks, I have tested that, and it's definitely seems -EV not hedging

So the strategy is shit then?

Get your point, i'm not stupid.
Ok, so saying -EV not hedging "hopefully" is not accurate.
In the long term I would hope doing no-hedge on this strategy would be +EV, but over my 6month sample period it shows negative overall profit, however the variance is large:
Number of markets = 4253
Number of selections = 23781
Number of Backs = 12364
Number of Lays = 11417
Strike Rate = 51 %
Wins = 2183
Losses = 2070
Av Win = 22.09
Av Loss = -23.67
Av Win:Loss Ratio = 0.93
Biggest Win = 110.98
Biggest Loss = -110.59
Highest Hi = 842.47
Lowest Lo = -2388.38
Biggest Drawdown = -3230.85
Total profit = -760.16
Turn Over % = -0.35 %
Commission = 964.63 (-126.90 %)

[goat68]

Goat, are you sure you even need to hedge/close your bets? Check it, maybe it'll be more profitable and generate more commission.

hi thanks, I have tested that, and it's definitely seems -EV not hedging

So the strategy is shit then?

i'm trying my best, this ain't easy, but I suspect you knew that

[goat68]

Goat, are you sure you even need to hedge/close your bets? Check it, maybe it'll be more profitable and generate more commission.

hi thanks, I have tested that, and it's definitely seems -EV not hedging

So the strategy is shit then?

The strategy does beat BSP.

[napshnap]

Yeah, it's not necessary that if the pure betting strategy is shit then trading strategy should be also shit. I have at least one daily systematic profitable trading strategy that could generate huge loss if used for pure betting.

Goat, do you hedge by SP?

[goat68]

Updated Dog bot now running, bet placement looking a lot better, happy to let it churn for the month now, fingers crossed!
In the meantime i'm looking at new ideas on a new strategy for greyhounds.

[goat68]

I've paused current dog bot, as not confident in its performance at the moment. Going to monitor it's performance via backtest over this month.
In the mean time working on a new dog strategy.

[goat68]

What the......?!

Screenshot 2022-02-19 at 15.10.53.png

[Euler]

Bot gone mad or race failed to get suspended?

[ShaunWhite]

race failed to get suspended?

Probaby, it was the 15:11 and it suspended at 15:13:07 but didn't close until 15:27:23, presumably while they handled the voiding. If it wasn't that then there'll be questions to answer because it won. I love the optimism of people who back dogs after the traps have opened.

[goat68]

race failed to get suspended?

Probaby, it was the 15:11 and it suspended at 15:13:07 but didn't close until 15:27:23, presumably while they handled the voiding. If it wasn't that then there'll be questions to answer because it won. I love the optimism of people who back dogs after the traps have opened.

Yeah looks like it, it was the 14:52, I was on the other side unfortunately, and more annoyingly my Back bet "hedge" at take SP got "Lapsed", presumably because there was no SP !!
But anyway 0EV, and made more back on another failed hedge later in the afternoon

[goat68]

Bot had a good day so far +£52 actual, but that's high due to positive wonky hedges, "neutral" hedge profit only +£12.

[goat68]

This weeks new bots profit "neutral" hedge PnL.
AUS Horse bot only being going a couple of days, but new dog bot looking good:

Screenshot 2022-02-19 at 19.44.54.png

[goat68]

Monmore 20:03 failed to Suspend as well, come on Betfair get your act together!

[ANGELS15]

Monmore 20:03 failed to Suspend as well, come on Betfair get your act together!

When this happens do Betfair still void all transactions?

[ShaunWhite]

Monmore 20:03 failed to Suspend as well, come on Betfair get your act together!

When this happens do Betfair still void all transactions?

They usually just void the bets after the traps opened, but sometimes all of them.