Lay - Trainers

[MobiusGrey]

It was an old spreadsheet created about 11 years ago. If interested take a look. Its' design is essentially based on 3 inputs, the spreadsheet does the rest. The "hardwork" is to find the sort of information you need to input to get the best results. As said, credit to Michael Wilding for the original workings.


VRRLite.xlsx

Oooof this is good. Ok, this is obviously premature, I've only just had a play with around with it but I've tried to come up with my own rating system to use. I've tried to price up the 19:45 and I'm just putting this out there to see if I can nail it first try. The winner will come from:

Broctune Red
Military Decoration
Abnaa

[wearthefoxhat]

It was an old spreadsheet created about 11 years ago. If interested take a look. Its' design is essentially based on 3 inputs, the spreadsheet does the rest. The "hardwork" is to find the sort of information you need to input to get the best results. As said, credit to Michael Wilding for the original workings.


VRRLite.xlsx

Oooof this is good. Ok, this is obviously premature, I've only just had a play with around with it but I've tried to come up with my own rating system to use. I've tried to price up the 19:45 and I'm just putting this out there to see if I can nail it first try. The winner will come from:

Broctune Red
Military Decoration
Abnaa

Good Luck.

That's the way I moved forward with it. ie: use of my own ratings, supplemented by a combination of 2 others. Then it's up to you if you back, lay, dutch, B2L, L2B....(or all at once)

I added my own tissue price/value price approach afterwards, for an extra twist.

[MobiusGrey]

Oooof this is good. Ok, this is obviously premature, I've only just had a play with around with it but I've tried to come up with my own rating system to use. I've tried to price up the 19:45 and I'm just putting this out there to see if I can nail it first try. The winner will come from:

Broctune Red
Military Decoration
Abnaa

A 1,2

Abnaa went off at around 9.0 too

Ok thank you for this Wearthefoxhat, this is a game changer for me. This is exactly what this forum for.

[wearthefoxhat]

Oooof this is good. Ok, this is obviously premature, I've only just had a play with around with it but I've tried to come up with my own rating system to use. I've tried to price up the 19:45 and I'm just putting this out there to see if I can nail it first try. The winner will come from:

Broctune Red
Military Decoration
Abnaa

A 1,2

Abnaa went off at around 9.0 too

Ok thank you for this Wearthefoxhat, this is a game changer for me. This is exactly what this forum for.

Good shout!

You're welcome.

[MobiusGrey]

If I'm looking at coming up with a laying the false/weak favourite type approach, does it matter when I lay the favourite? For example if I price up a market at 10am, identify a favourite I want to lay and take the lay odds on offer and it drifts out so that by the off it's now the 2nd favourite have I just achieved greater value or am I now no longer laying 'the favourite'. The reason I ask is I believe around only 30% of favourites win but in the example above I'm no longer laying the favourite, I'm laying the 2nd favourite at post time.

I have a feeling I've probably answered my own question, if a runner is priced up as a favourite at 10am I don't think it should be and lay it, that's value regardless of whether it's the favourite at post.

[wearthefoxhat]

If I'm looking at coming up with a laying the false/weak favourite type approach, does it matter when I lay the favourite? For example if I price up a market at 10am, identify a favourite I want to lay and take the lay odds on offer and it drifts out so that by the off it's now the 2nd favourite have I just achieved greater value or am I now no longer laying 'the favourite'. The reason I ask is I believe around only 30% of favourites win but in the example above I'm no longer laying the favourite, I'm laying the 2nd favourite at post time.

I have a feeling I've probably answered my own question, if a runner is priced up as a favourite at 10am I don't think it should be and lay it, that's value regardless of whether it's the favourite at post.

I believe you've got to have some idea of what the price of the horse should be. If your ratings indicate a "false favourite" and the current price is 3/1, you have to forecast the price in some way, be it by comparing a reliable betting forecast or evaluating your own tissue price. If the 3/1 is too short by comparison, then Lay at that price. I'd more than likely peg lay at 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 to try and gain better lay value.

If the price then drifts and a new market leader emerges, I then have the option to trade out pre-off. It's important to have confidence in your original ratings and the assessment or a poor/false favourite to begin with.

[MobiusGrey]

I believe you've got to have some idea of what the price of the horse should be. If your ratings indicate a "false favourite" and the current price is 3/1, you have to forecast the price in some way, be it by comparing a reliable betting forecast or evaluating your own tissue price. If the 3/1 is too short by comparison, then Lay at that price. I'd more than likely peg lay at 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 to try and gain better lay value.

If the price then drifts and a new market leader emerges, I then have the option to trade out pre-off. It's important to have confidence in your original ratings and the assessment or a poor/false favourite to begin with.

Ok this makes sense. I'm a little unsure of the maths though. If I have a 4 runner race would I start with each horse at 4/1, I then run the VRR spreadsheet with my ratings, let's say

horse 1 = 100
horse 2 =80
horse 3 = 60
horse 4 =50

How do I get from 4/1 to the correct prices based on my ratings?

[napshnap]

I believe you've got to have some idea of what the price of the horse should be. If your ratings indicate a "false favourite" and the current price is 3/1, you have to forecast the price in some way, be it by comparing a reliable betting forecast or evaluating your own tissue price. If the 3/1 is too short by comparison, then Lay at that price. I'd more than likely peg lay at 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 to try and gain better lay value.

If the price then drifts and a new market leader emerges, I then have the option to trade out pre-off. It's important to have confidence in your original ratings and the assessment or a poor/false favourite to begin with.

Ok this makes sense. I'm a little unsure of the maths though. If I have a 4 runner race would I start with each horse at 4/1, I then run the VRR spreadsheet with my ratings, let's say

horse 1 = 100
horse 2 =80
horse 3 = 60
horse 4 =50

How do I get from 4/1 to the correct prices based on my ratings?

viewtopic.php?p=275183#p275183

[MobiusGrey]

viewtopic.php?p=275183#p275183

Thank you

[wearthefoxhat]

I believe you've got to have some idea of what the price of the horse should be. If your ratings indicate a "false favourite" and the current price is 3/1, you have to forecast the price in some way, be it by comparing a reliable betting forecast or evaluating your own tissue price. If the 3/1 is too short by comparison, then Lay at that price. I'd more than likely peg lay at 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 to try and gain better lay value.

If the price then drifts and a new market leader emerges, I then have the option to trade out pre-off. It's important to have confidence in your original ratings and the assessment or a poor/false favourite to begin with.

Ok this makes sense. I'm a little unsure of the maths though. If I have a 4 runner race would I start with each horse at 4/1, I then run the VRR spreadsheet with my ratings, let's say

horse 1 = 100
horse 2 =80
horse 3 = 60
horse 4 =50

How do I get from 4/1 to the correct prices based on my ratings?

The VRR spreadsheet should be set up to calculate a set of/combination of ratings to produce the ratings/rankings, separately. This alone has no bearing on the market or tissue price calculation.

Newc 3.10

VRR.png

Building the tissue price, starting off with the number of runners in the race, works separately in the sheet and spits out a calculation after taking into account the ranking of each rating in the similar way these guys do with their betting tissue tool.

https://www.informracing.com/betting-tissue-tool-1/

Tissue.png

I added in a value index that then compares the current market with my own tissue prices to define value/or not value. In the example given, Be Proud is poorly rated, held up, poor value and an ideal L2B type. It hasn't moved much so far, but reckon it will near the off.

Graph.png

Sorry if it sounds a little vague, but there's enough info there to try out something in excel.

[MobiusGrey]

Nope, this is great thank you, don't worry about being vague. I think between this and Napshnap's link I should be able to put something together in excel, might take me a few days as my maths leaves a lot to be desired but I can definitely see what I need to do now.

[napshnap]

viewtopic.php?p=275183#p275183

Thank you

Think I was too hasty. It looks like you guys are talking about something a lil different from simple "odds calculation"... But anyway if you want to calc odds from some rating it may help.

[MobiusGrey]

Newc 3.10

VRR.png

Glad my ratings look similar, feels as though I'm at least on the right track

[wearthefoxhat]

Newc 3.10

VRR.png

Glad my ratings look similar, feels as though I'm at least on the right track

Got caught on that L2B trade. Market was right, with a late move and it won as well. (Spoof was probably the one to focus on - hindsight)

[wearthefoxhat]

viewtopic.php?p=275183#p275183

Thank you

Think I was too hasty. It looks like you guys are talking about something a lil different from simple "odds calculation"... But anyway if you want to calc odds from some rating it may help.

It's all good. Just using a different spreadsheet to look at things differently.