Trading Soccer ( strategy)

[hadorti]

Hello

I have seen alot many topic about strategy for Soccer or horse racing.

But my question is there must bee a way that you can guernte that you can make a profit in a event.

for exampel in soccer you have Lay the draw. in that case you have only the draw that can make you lose. thene you have corect score market you can Back for exampel the 0-0
or the 1-1 . now you have coverd the draw.

mybee i have missed somwthing but for sure you understand what i mean, you can cover your losing are in other market in the same event.

dose anyone have some idea or atleast could sitt for a minut and think about it!

iam 100% sure that there is something overthere,

ihope you understand and sorry for my poor english.

[seale]

I had a similar idea, with laying the draw and backing 0-0.

I was hedged at the start of the match, and was planning to trade out as soon as a goal was scored.

On doing the calcs you pretty much always break even (with a tiny loss/profit....more often a tiny loss!).

The markets are a lot more efficient than you think.

[hadorti]

Thanke you seale.

but there must bee something better right?

i have checkt something it is not new but at least i didt know about

Back the under 2.5 goal and headge out after 10 min. and we are talking about small profit.

do you onther good stratgy? or tips?

[Euler]

There is money to be made by trading before the off on football, this gives you lots of things you can try in-play at little risk. Inplay if you back or lay at any price it still needs to be value in some form or another to pay in the long term so make sure you know that. Don't feel that any generic 'back this lay that strategy' will work in the longer term without any form of judgement, as it won't.

[seale]

As above.

Back the under 2.5 then lay when the odds fall is great, but as soon as there is an early goal it will wipe out your profits.

You need to do research before hand to find games where there is a low likelihood of an early goal.

....and also where the odds don't reflect this low likelihood.

[Iron]

Do you need to be watching the match to ensure that you get value, or can it be done just be looking at the charts?

Jeff

Inplay if you back or lay at any price it still needs to be value in some form or another to pay in the long term so make sure you know that.

[LeTiss]

You don't always need strategies for football, you do get some very nice pre-match swings

Victoria Branesti
3.05 into 1.69!

Capture.JPG

[hadorti]

There is money to be made by trading before the off on football, this gives you lots of things you can try in-play at little risk. Inplay if you back or lay at any price it still needs to be value in some form or another to pay in the long term so make sure you know that. Don't feel that any generic 'back this lay that strategy' will work in the longer term without any form of judgement, as it won't.

i did not understod you realy, do you mean like doing my stratgy before the game start? i can understand that ofcource there is some early goals that come but there is a lower precentege.

supose you lay the 0-0 there is many game that end with draw but not like 0-0.

[Martybhoy99]

I've looked at Lay 0-0 as there is around a 12% chance that this outcome would be true (in most leagues). However, the market already understands that hence the high liability if you wish to pursue this. If there isn't a goal in 30 minutes (and the market expects one) you could be heading quite rapidly toward your liability and it is difficult to get out (unless you have nerves of steel or your not bothered and not interesting in trading - i.e. you are betting on an outcome)

I Lay the Draw and trade the odds. So, I am NEVER in for the 90 minutes. I do not care that I could have won X more if I just held on...I am in profit and I am out. On to the next game.

As with any trading (horses/tennis/FX/Stocks/Oil) you need an ENTRY strategy (in football, the correctly researched Match at acceptable odds) and an EXIT strategy (whether in Profit or Not). Simples.

The normal difficulties is that most people apply a Method/System/Strategy to any match (one size does not fit all) and cannot get out when the outcome is going against them, always holding out hoping the next goal will save them.

If your interested in Trading then an Entry and Exit Strategy is required (that suits YOUR trading style), sound Money Management (to stem your losses - you WILL lose at times) and an understanding of Psychology (specifically around yourself and how you behave/think when trading).

Good luck

[superfrank]

There is no holy grail. You need an edge, whatever that is, and then discipline and a big enough sample size for that edge to play out.

In the Champions League final I layed Manure about 5 mins in after they had started brightly and their price had contracted. I reasoned that Barca would settle and that the price would drift. Barca did settle and then as a bonus scored first and I traded out for a good profit.

My edge was that I considered the price contraction an overreaction (in trading out I also left money in the market and waited to get matched by those panicking out of back positions, again catching an overreaction).

I accepted the risk that Barca would concede the first goal.

If I did the same sort of thing in 1,000 matches I'm confident I would come out well ahead.

[Iron]

In the Champions League final I layed Manure

Steady!!!

I think you meant to write 'the great Manchester United'...

My edge was that I considered the price contraction an overreaction

But what evidence do you have that it was an over-reaction?

Your may have been right, but how do you know it wasn't just a gut feeling?

Jeff

[superfrank]

But what evidence do you have that it was an over-reaction?

Your may have been right, but how do you know it wasn't just a gut feeling?

Jeff

Intuition I suppose. If Man U had gone to create chance after chance, or scored first, then my intuition would have been wrong on that occasion.

People consistently underestimate things like intuition, feel and confidence in trading - they sounds like silly concepts, but they're not.

[Iron]

I'm in two minds about intuition when trading.

With intuition, there is a risk that you will see what you want to see (ie you'd be gambling, which is a losing proposition long-term). Also, when you trade intuitively, what basis in fact do you have for believing that you've outwitted an extremely efficient market?

That said, I believe that the human unconscious is extremely powerful, and enables us to instinctively know when something does or doesn't feel right.

I think the main thing is to remain disciplined, and not to steer too far from the beaten track. What do you guys think?

But I agree 100% about confidence (although there's such a thing as over-confidence!).

Jeff

People consistently underestimate things like intuition, feel and confidence in trading - they sounds like silly concepts, but they're not.

[mcfc1981]

take your laptop to the match job done.

[Iron]

I'm not sure that gives you much of an advantage over people sat at home watching the game on TV.

If the Betfair odds say that the home team has a (say) 1 in 2 chance of winning, you still need to be able to out-analyse an extremely efficient market to gain an edge, which is no mean feat...

Jeff

take your laptop to the match job done.