Have the markets changed now we're going into flat season?

[Brovashift]

Hi all,

Just a quick one; have the markets change over the last few weeks, since Cheltenham really, now we're heading into the flat season?
I have been having a nightmare after Cheltenham, as In I am struggling to read the market sometimes, and/or I keep getting nailed by 'whoever' dropping massive "violent" slugs on the opposite side and pushing me into the red. If I am patient sometimes it comes back, but quite often now everyone seems to pile in behind the slug in like a massive conga, which if I am not quick enough can turn into some ugly losses.

I only started trading the racing last summer and feel I had a handle on some basics by Ascot. Then hurdle season started, which threw me and took me at least 6 weeks before I felt some level of confidence. And I was trading fine up until Cheltenham, increasing my stakes and building confidence. After Cheltenham I seem to have lost my mojo.
I started today feeling confident and focused after a shit day yesterday, and caught I nice move in the first race at Warwick, thought today was gona be a good day where I find my feet again. But just been abused by 2 slugs in two consecutive races and had to turn off BA. Feeling depressed! lol

Any thoughts and insights appreciated

TIA

[Tetras]

The cards are full of low quality races with small fields and packed races lately, like Sunday in particular, I think it had 5 meetings. That makes huge slugs a lot more likely because the money arrives late due to clashes and how low quality races are inconsistent. Maidens/novices are always dodgy and when they have less than 30-50,000 matched 5 minutes out they're anyone's game.

[ShaunWhite]

Thin markets and a new crop of unexposed horses who's prices are driven more by speculation and rumour than form.

[49ers]

Hi there,

During the winter and around this time of year there are a lot of poor quality races that have low liquidity and horses with little to no or poor form just thrown together to form a race (Not that form is always a reliable indicator) which mean it can be difficult to get a grasp on what the real odds of a runner should be.

This means that the markets are more easily manipulated and if no-one really has a grasp on who they think could win the race you're a lot more likely to experience volatility and massive swings/spikes in and out on price. Coupled to this is that people could have machanical stop losses set above or below the current traded range so sometimes when you see the "Conga" effect as you mention it's highly likely in a volatile market people are dumping their positions and multiple stops are also being triggered which can move the price even further.

My advice is to pick your battles and stick to the higher quality races if trading order flow (it may limit the number of races that you can suitably trade in a day which can be frustrating) but will give you more stable environment to trade which is imperative especailly when you're first starting out. Over time you maybe able to develop tactics for how to trade these more volatile races but remember there isn't a one size fits all approach for every market so take some time to watch and monitor the different characteristics of how different types of race trade and over time you'll begin to spot patterns in the market that you can then turn into an edge.

Hope that helps a bit

[Dallas]

Short answer is Yes
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/donc ... at-racing/
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/seas ... se-racing/

[ShaunWhite]

Feeling depressed! lol

We don't have to earn our money evenly over the year so don't be too worried about just stepping back for a few weeks or cutting stakes. If you/we make good money from the middle to the end of the seasons then why not use the less good times to do some study or work on new strategies or have a decent holiday? That's part of the joy of it, it's not necessarily a 46 weeks a year job and you can be more flexible.

Despite appearences not everyone trades 365 days a year making good money week after week, a lot also make sure they use the less profitable times to be better prepared for the more profitable times. All part of the mental transition from getting a regular monthly wage to totting up at the end of the year which is one of the tougher parts of the job that rarely gets a mention.

[Brovashift]

Absolutly buzzin off these replies Feel like a massive cloud has lifted off my mind lol

I was thinking I had lost it completely, almost considering throwing in the towel. Its great to read these posts, and those links to the blog helped a lot, thanks Dallas.

My first trade today with a fresh mind sang to me, the charts showed a clear picture of who was being backed, the Vol and liquidity we right, WoM was heavily weighted on the back side, and I made the decision ahead of time. More of those please Everything else was just scrapy! I guess I just need to trade less, space the trades out to give my mind time to 'see the wood through the trees' so to speak, as I was jumping from race to race. I said to myself I wasn't going to trade Naas today, but traded it and took my first loss for the day

Or might even take a break for a few weeks, been trying to get my head around tennis... questions to follow!

Thanks for the replies, appreciated.

[Euler]

I was thinking I had lost it completely, almost considering throwing in the towel. Its great to read these posts, and those links to the blog helped a lot, thanks Dallas.

When I first went through these spells, I also felt like I'd lost it. Seasonality is such an important aspect to learn about the sports markets.

[Korattt]

Hi all,

Just a quick one; have the markets change over the last few weeks, since Cheltenham really, now we're heading into the flat season
TIA

what happens during the jumps season what doesn’t during the flat?, for me I get a truer indication of a trend during the flat pre race than what I do on the jumps, just watching the live feed just before the off in any particular race on the jumps may give you a clue what the difference is.. it is for me anyway

[Derek27]

As a punter, the start of the flat from the Brocklesby/Lincoln to the classic trials was particularly exciting, but not something I looked forward to as a trader. But at least Aintree's coming up soon, followed by the big spring meetings and a long and busy summer.

[alexmr2]

I found the week after Cheltenham OK but have struggled and felt pretty lost this week.

I'm not sure what it takes to recognise these conditions though, I struggle to easily identify markets that won't burn me despite having done this for over 3 years.

The preoff markets have a range of behaviours which often feel random and there is never one rule fits all

[andy28]

I didn't realise by seasonality you mean for that season.

So if trading Aussie racing seasonality would be May-July/Dec-Jan?

[Euler]

We are at the tail end of the Aussie autumn racing at the moment. Quality racing will come back in August.

[Brovashift]

I was thinking I had lost it completely, almost considering throwing in the towel. Its great to read these posts, and those links to the blog helped a lot, thanks Dallas.

When I first went through these spells, I also felt like I'd lost it. Seasonality is such an important aspect to learn about the sports markets.

I was laughing to myself yesterday watching your videos on seasonality because you were saying everything I was thinking/feeling/experiencing Brilliant!

Thanks to the BA team and community for all your excellent work.

[Derek27]

I didn't realise by seasonality you mean for that season.

So if trading Aussie racing seasonality would be May-July/Dec-Jan?

Aussie racing has two peaks, presumably because of the hot weather.