Today's Greyhounds
And it gets "lucky"! So net of these three 0EV exchange technical "blips" +£43, so made a bit back for the other losses from "technical 0EV blips" that have happened this month, but must be still net -£130 ish for these in April ! Despite that though i'm still in overall profit for the month.
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2335
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screwed up on the footy...
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liltbrockie
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Hey! .. Sorry what is this application? Freely available or custom made by yourself?
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ShaunWhite
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You'll find the actual can stay above or below theoretical for months on end and for 10s of 000s of bets. And the correction won't always be another big one. For all you know you'll make it/lose it back in pennies because hedging is never spot on.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 7:11 pmAnd it gets "lucky"! So net of these three 0EV exchange technical "blips" +£43, so made a bit back for the other losses from "technical 0EV blips" that have happened this month, but must be still net -£130 ish for these in April ! Despite that though i'm still in overall profit for the month.
I'm so glad you no longer think the actuals are meaningful and now use your benchmark more. Any gambler can hit a streak of winners but if they're not beating BSP it's only borrowed money.
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ShaunWhite
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No, it won't be lucky, and it won't be unlucky. '"Luck" is something get when you buy lucky heather, when you're gambling you just get probablity.
In the usual spirit of openness I'll share my 'lucky' and 'unlucky' results for the last 7 days. (market results not individual bets) tbh it wouldn't be half as much fun without those pesky little dots miles away from the cluster
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Nice ShaunShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:20 pmNo, it won't be lucky, and it won't be unlucky. '"Luck" is something get when you buy lucky heather, when you're gambling you just get probablity.
In the usual spirit of openness I'll share my 'lucky' and 'unlucky' results for the last 7 days. (market results not individual bets) tbh it wouldn't be half as much fun without those pesky little dots miles away from the cluster
That +£240 one was nice too!
Wish I could pull a Rainman and instantly count itShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:20 pmNo, it won't be lucky, and it won't be unlucky. '"Luck" is something get when you buy lucky heather, when you're gambling you just get probablity.
In the usual spirit of openness I'll share my 'lucky' and 'unlucky' results for the last 7 days. (market results not individual bets) tbh it wouldn't be half as much fun without
those pesky little dots miles away from the cluster
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ShaunWhite
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ShaunWhite
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MemphisFlash
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now has dynamic track form added to interface
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wearthefoxhat
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FWIW, I'm looking at the angle, "going against the crowd." I've noticed that the Racing Post Naps/Next Bet (n.b.) can disappoint more often than not and can be overbet. So here's the approach.
In most cases my ratings tend to agree with the tipsters.
The Yarmouth 6.41 is an example in question. The bookies pretty much follow suit. The T3 has a 0.20 advantage (just over 2 lengths)
Newcastle 4.04
However, once in a while using the same ratings approach, there's a difference. The Racing Post are Nap on T3, Timeform disagree with T5, and my top rated T4, is not mentioned by either. Probably because it's been beaten a long way (in better grade) and starts slow, finding trouble in running.
My view is that it has a 0.10 advantage over the 2nd rated (just over 1 length) and 0.60 over the 3rd rated (around 7 lengths). The grader has given her a fairer chance, it just needs a clearer run. I also noticed the bookies have it @ 10/3, so no forlorn hope in their eyes too.
If I were betting on the race, it would something like;
Trap 4 Win (70% of stake)
Fc T3 xT4 (15% of stake)
Fc T5 x T4 (15% of stake)
In most cases my ratings tend to agree with the tipsters.
The Yarmouth 6.41 is an example in question. The bookies pretty much follow suit. The T3 has a 0.20 advantage (just over 2 lengths)
Newcastle 4.04
However, once in a while using the same ratings approach, there's a difference. The Racing Post are Nap on T3, Timeform disagree with T5, and my top rated T4, is not mentioned by either. Probably because it's been beaten a long way (in better grade) and starts slow, finding trouble in running.
My view is that it has a 0.10 advantage over the 2nd rated (just over 1 length) and 0.60 over the 3rd rated (around 7 lengths). The grader has given her a fairer chance, it just needs a clearer run. I also noticed the bookies have it @ 10/3, so no forlorn hope in their eyes too.
If I were betting on the race, it would something like;
Trap 4 Win (70% of stake)
Fc T3 xT4 (15% of stake)
Fc T5 x T4 (15% of stake)
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Archery1969
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Didn’t someone post the analysis once by track and grade which showed the lower the grade (A1 to A10) the higher number of outsiders win or come 2nd ?
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liltbrockie
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I see well that answers that then!!.. sort of.MemphisFlash wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:46 pmCapture.JPG
now has dynamic track form added to interface
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liltbrockie
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My result today so far of an XGBoost Algorithm to help me, very nicely, lay dogs... Thanks XGBoost!
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