Run of favorites

[liltbrockie]

Not see a run of favorites like this mornings for a long long time!

Amazing.. 77% S/R from 22 races

[liltbrockie]

Wait for the dust to settle then start laying the crap out of them!

[ShaunWhite]

Wait for the dust to settle then start laying the crap out of them!

A while ago we had a a run of, I think, 28 winning favourites.

But even that didn't mean starting to lay them was a good idea because they're unrelated events.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[liltbrockie]

Wait for the dust to settle then start laying the crap out of them!

A while ago we had a a run of, I think, 28 winning favourites.

But even that didn't mean starting to lay them was a good idea because they're unrelated events.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Ahhh yes the gamblers fallacy! They are totally unrelated you are right but the fact of the matter is that over time the fav greyhound will win almost exactly 33% of the time. When you get a run like the one this morning something has to give....

Shortly after my first post I made a tidy profit laying 13 fav in a row and won them all!

You are right it is not guaranteed but more often than not 'things' will try and find there way back to that default strike rate for you... you just have to spot the opportunities. ( which is why I ended up building this tool you can see a screenshot of in the first post! )

[liltbrockie]

When was that run of 28 favs in a row by the way would like to check it out. Do you know?

[ShaunWhite]

When was that run of 28 favs in a row by the way would like to check it out. Do you know?

I think it was 2017, and I think I was wrong..... It was losing favs.

[liltbrockie]

When was that run of 28 favs in a row by the way would like to check it out. Do you know?

I think it was 2017, and I think I was wrong..... It was losing favs.

Yer makes sense, I could not see any record of it from my stats.... and in fact, everytime we had a run of winners as big as this morning, you would have been quids in laying them after for a while.

[ShaunWhite]

Ahhh yes the gamblers fallacy! They are totally unrelated you are right but the fact of the matter is that over time the fav greyhound will win almost exactly 33% of the time.

It's not so much that its 33% that's a product of the average price of favs. Over time all selections win at the rate their sp suggests.

You are right it is not guaranteed but more often than not 'things' will try and find there way back to that default strike rate for you...

That's the apparent hole in the logic but..... you're referring there to the "law of large numbers". But that doesn't say the numbers will even out, just that the difference becomes less significant. Eg 1 winner and 10 losers is significant but 1001 vs 1010 isn't.

[liltbrockie]

Same on rank 5 this morning... 6 out of 14 races rank 5 won.... time to start laying!

r5.png

[The Silk Run]

Personally, I would excercise caution as generally track managers are levelling-up in the morning races and working on trap bias. Especially Suffolk Downs, with a relatively new track manager.

[liltbrockie]

Personally, I would excercise caution

Always!...not putting the whole bank on!! it but made my target 5% profit for the day!

[napshnap]

There should be a lot of winning short priced doggies today and tomorrow.

[Panto Prince]

An interesting discussion. Whilst I completely understand the gambler's fallacy and how long term trends average out, I do believe there may be an element of player behaviour that influences markets in the short term.

There are many backers/ layers out there no doubt that have strategies based around backing/ laying favourites.

If you get a run that is favourable to one side or another that runs for several days it could affect the market.

Say you have some punters who blindly back favs. Over a week or so there is a sustained trend of an above average number of favourites winnning. Their supporters see their banks increase. They'll perhaps delude themselves into believing they've cracked the game and start increasing stakes. So more money starts to go on the favs, shortening their prices. You could argue this now becomes favourable to layers. When the long favourable trend for the shorties subsides, as it surely will, the layers will be sitting pretty as the backers give back their winnings until the market returns to its long term average.

Anything in this, or just me trying to read too much into player psychology/ behaviour?

[liltbrockie]

The simple fact of the matter is that over the last 10 years or so the average strike rate for the dogs are as follows:

R1:33%
R2:22%
R3:17%
R4:13%
R5:9%
R6:6%

Each rank is doing everything in its power to maintain that strike rate.

Now if wanted to, you could set yourself a window for the past X amount of races (50 or so might work) and keep track of the strike rate for each rank. The moment one of the ranks starts diverging massively from its default strike rate... dollar signs should be ringing. For some ranks, the window can be slightly different... for example if I noticed rank 6 just won 3 times in a row you can bet your botttom dollar im gonna lay it the 4th time for a modest amount.

And if you are really clever you can have a bit of automation keeping track of these divergences for you and laying the dog thats winning a little bit too often automatically for you like I have!

It's not a guarenteed win everytime obviously and don't get greedy... but the odds, shall we say, are nicely stacked in your favor... (well they have been for me for the past 6 months or so anyway.)

[Crazyskier]

An interesting discussion. Whilst I completely understand the gambler's fallacy and how long term trends average out, I do believe there may be an element of player behaviour that influences markets in the short term.

There are many backers/ layers out there no doubt that have strategies based around backing/ laying favourites.

If you get a run that is favourable to one side or another that runs for several days it could affect the market.

Say you have some punters who blindly back favs. Over a week or so there is a sustained trend of an above average number of favourites winnning. Their supporters see their banks increase. They'll perhaps delude themselves into believing they've cracked the game and start increasing stakes. So more money starts to go on the favs, shortening their prices. You could argue this now becomes favourable to layers. When the long favourable trend for the shorties subsides, as it surely will, the layers will be sitting pretty as the backers give back their winnings until the market returns to its long term average.

Anything in this, or just me trying to read too much into player psychology/ behaviour?

You see this when a specific trap has a higher-than-usual percentage of winners in the first 3-4 races. The prices are often shorter than they should be with people following the trend. That's usually where I up my lay stakes on said trap.

CS