I was wondering what other traders are thinking about the current economic cricis and it's possible impact on betfair trading?
For example looking at the soaring cost of fuel, how long is it going to be before trainers cannot afford to buy fuel for their horse boxes to transport horses to the races?
Will this mean smaller fields etc, less betting turnover and even the closure of some racecourses?
In the short term nothing much will change but longterm?
Cost of living threat to racing and betfair trading
It is a worry, but really the rising cost of fuel hits people with the lowest incomes, as a percentage of the income they spend. If a trainer has to put his fees up to cover petrol and transport I wouldn't expect it to have a massive impact on owners who can afford to keep horses in training.ANGELS15 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:38 pmI was wondering what other traders are thinking about the current economic cricis and it's possible impact on betfair trading?
For example looking at the soaring cost of fuel, how long is it going to be before trainers cannot afford to buy fuel for their horse boxes to transport horses to the races?
Will this mean smaller fields etc, less betting turnover and even the closure of some racecourses?
In the short term nothing much will change but longterm?
Might have a bigger impact on Betfair volumes.
Not concerned by it whatsoever. I’ll just keep turning up & do what I do.
A recession may have an adverse effect to what many would expect within any financial markets. When people are through no fault of their own taken out of their comfort zone (nine to five) then naturally some will go searching for alternative methods of income.
When the 2008 recession hit I noticed in my area that a few new little businesses started to pop up, there was suddenly as service provided for mobile wheelie bin cleaning & mobile car valeting… I’m not saying this was a totally new thing, but in my area it was & in a very minor way it showed me that people will always try to thrive by looking for alternative income in uncomfortable times.
A recession may have an adverse effect to what many would expect within any financial markets. When people are through no fault of their own taken out of their comfort zone (nine to five) then naturally some will go searching for alternative methods of income.
When the 2008 recession hit I noticed in my area that a few new little businesses started to pop up, there was suddenly as service provided for mobile wheelie bin cleaning & mobile car valeting… I’m not saying this was a totally new thing, but in my area it was & in a very minor way it showed me that people will always try to thrive by looking for alternative income in uncomfortable times.
Lower Betfair volumes was what I was also thinking. On top of all this we have the pending gambling review.Derek27 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:45 pmIt is a worry, but really the rising cost of fuel hits people with the lowest incomes, as a percentage of the income they spend. If a trainer has to put his fees up to cover petrol and transport I wouldn't expect it to have a massive impact on owners who can afford to keep horses in training.ANGELS15 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:38 pmI was wondering what other traders are thinking about the current economic cricis and it's possible impact on betfair trading?
For example looking at the soaring cost of fuel, how long is it going to be before trainers cannot afford to buy fuel for their horse boxes to transport horses to the races?
Will this mean smaller fields etc, less betting turnover and even the closure of some racecourses?
In the short term nothing much will change but longterm?
Might have a bigger impact on Betfair volumes.
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SteadySlobbin
- Posts: 69
- Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:17 am
Wouldn’t be too concerned about the cost of living crisis and recession. Gambling has always been considered fairly recession proof.
I’d be far more concerned about the gambling review and upcoming legislation. If they are going to drastically reduce the amounts people are are allowed to lose gambling and make it increasingly difficult for them to bet, then it’s obviously going to have a bad effect on the markets.
If you are a horse racing trader the state of the sport in general would also be of more concern.
Think all other sports will be fine though, and hopefully racing pulls through, and the do gooder campaigners can find a different bandwagon to jump on, and find something else to relentlessly shout about and point at until they get it either cancelled or changed.
I’d be far more concerned about the gambling review and upcoming legislation. If they are going to drastically reduce the amounts people are are allowed to lose gambling and make it increasingly difficult for them to bet, then it’s obviously going to have a bad effect on the markets.
If you are a horse racing trader the state of the sport in general would also be of more concern.
Think all other sports will be fine though, and hopefully racing pulls through, and the do gooder campaigners can find a different bandwagon to jump on, and find something else to relentlessly shout about and point at until they get it either cancelled or changed.
Saw on twitter a G1 winning owner can only deposit £500 a month, I'm guessing that's the most anyone can deposit, that's shockingly bad for the future.
But as long as you have money in your account they don't care if you were to lose 5 figs in a day, that's how badly managed it is.
Also replying to the OP, owners are leaving the sport in droves, prizemoney was already the main reason but with increased costs as you say with petrol and with feed as well it doesn't give much incentive for owners to remain in the sport.
But as long as you have money in your account they don't care if you were to lose 5 figs in a day, that's how badly managed it is.
Also replying to the OP, owners are leaving the sport in droves, prizemoney was already the main reason but with increased costs as you say with petrol and with feed as well it doesn't give much incentive for owners to remain in the sport.
Let's hope.
My worry though is that the 'gambling review' was initiated long before the current crisis/Ukraine war.
Back in the autumn of 2021 when we had the media inspired petrol scare (there was no shortage of petrol only a shortage of tanker drivers. As long as people bought what they normally did the system could still cope but the media had to go and panic everyone). Petrol was around £1.27 a litre. A couple of weeks after the 'petrol scare' it had shot up to £1.47 a litre.
Now it's well over £1.80 and in some places around £2. It's not just about driving but the increased costs for manufacturing due to soaring energy costs.
What I'm driving at is that Betfair, the other exchanges and bookies may start to apply restrictions and limits more stringently than they had intend.
Some people have pointed out that the gambling industry has tended to be fairly recession proof. I've always tended to agree with this up to a point. The difference here is that you never had this sort of crackdown on the industry in the past. Added to that the cost of living has never soared like this in many decades.
What's frightening is that there seems to be no limit to these price increase. It's like other things like houses or rent. When I started work in 1980 you could rent a room for £15 a week in London. The average wage was around £110 a week. Now just to rent a room in say London you're looking at £600 monthly a flat £1400. With house prices there seems to be no limit to how high they can go as there's no shortage of wealthy foreign investors happy to shell out to own a little bit of England.
There are economic factors driving this but the media plays a part 'petrol will soon hit £2 a litre' so the retailers think 'yeah let's do it as the public are already expecting it'.
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
OnlyFans seems pretty recession proof. I might stop trading altogether and go fart in a jar for a living!
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SteadySlobbin
- Posts: 69
- Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:17 am
I’ve lost two accounts already. One was a winning account, which made me think it is some sort of a conspiracy to use safer gambling as an excuse to get rid of business they don’t want.
The other though, more worryingly, was a losing account. And I tried to keep it open. It wasnt that I refused to comply, it was just whatever I sent, wasnt good enough. I was told my savings were no use as I could lose them, then I’d have no income, they say they accept gambling winnings. Though they don’t,as it’s almost impossible to prove, like savings, they just say you could start losing.
I didn’t even get offered a low deposit limit. Got told I was toxic, as because I had stated on record that I currently have no fixed income, if I carried on betting, and lost, the gambling commission would either, at best, heavily fine them, or at worst, take away their license.
Someone needs to get a grip on the gambling commission. Their rules make no sense and they are killing the industry. There has to be an option where you are allowed to deposit and bet with your own money if you so wish to.
Most people will just say no to the checks and go to a different operator. When they run out of operators, they will go to stocks, crypto, black market private layers, crypto bookmakers.
Affordability checks are the least effective way of solving the problem. They literally just push people to more dangerous, less regulated markets.
The trouble is, because nobody on the pro gambling side wants affordability checks, the anti gambling brigade have latched on to this and see it as the single most important issue, and their campaigns now seem to be based entirely around this.
People don’t want affordability checks because they are asking for very private details, extremely sensitive data , and it is totally unnecessary. Unless you are betting on credit, or in excessively large amounts, there is no need for a bookmaker to be looking at your personal finances. It’s a bet, not a mortgage.
Things which would actually stop the harm, like banning the adverts, reducing the exposure of betting products to younger people, and most of all, either banning or restricting the casino games to pennies seems to be getting ignored and the whole conversation now seems to be around the affordability checks.
It was pointed out from the start that sports betting and casino are two completely different products. Somebody losing at casino games over a year isn’t going to turn that around the next year. They are going to carry on losing until all their money is gone. They should be limited as they can never win.
Sports is different though. It’s constantly changing, constantly evolving. Someone who loses one year, isn’t necessarily going to lose the next, and vice versa. One years winner, is next years loser. It’s a game, it should be up to the individual whether or not they want to play.
The other though, more worryingly, was a losing account. And I tried to keep it open. It wasnt that I refused to comply, it was just whatever I sent, wasnt good enough. I was told my savings were no use as I could lose them, then I’d have no income, they say they accept gambling winnings. Though they don’t,as it’s almost impossible to prove, like savings, they just say you could start losing.
I didn’t even get offered a low deposit limit. Got told I was toxic, as because I had stated on record that I currently have no fixed income, if I carried on betting, and lost, the gambling commission would either, at best, heavily fine them, or at worst, take away their license.
Someone needs to get a grip on the gambling commission. Their rules make no sense and they are killing the industry. There has to be an option where you are allowed to deposit and bet with your own money if you so wish to.
Most people will just say no to the checks and go to a different operator. When they run out of operators, they will go to stocks, crypto, black market private layers, crypto bookmakers.
Affordability checks are the least effective way of solving the problem. They literally just push people to more dangerous, less regulated markets.
The trouble is, because nobody on the pro gambling side wants affordability checks, the anti gambling brigade have latched on to this and see it as the single most important issue, and their campaigns now seem to be based entirely around this.
People don’t want affordability checks because they are asking for very private details, extremely sensitive data , and it is totally unnecessary. Unless you are betting on credit, or in excessively large amounts, there is no need for a bookmaker to be looking at your personal finances. It’s a bet, not a mortgage.
Things which would actually stop the harm, like banning the adverts, reducing the exposure of betting products to younger people, and most of all, either banning or restricting the casino games to pennies seems to be getting ignored and the whole conversation now seems to be around the affordability checks.
It was pointed out from the start that sports betting and casino are two completely different products. Somebody losing at casino games over a year isn’t going to turn that around the next year. They are going to carry on losing until all their money is gone. They should be limited as they can never win.
Sports is different though. It’s constantly changing, constantly evolving. Someone who loses one year, isn’t necessarily going to lose the next, and vice versa. One years winner, is next years loser. It’s a game, it should be up to the individual whether or not they want to play.
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
Other problem we have is we now live in a hyper-woke society.
Long term I don't see how its sustainable for bookies to survive as a business if they keep closing peoples accounts.
Long term I don't see how its sustainable for bookies to survive as a business if they keep closing peoples accounts.
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SteadySlobbin
- Posts: 69
- Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:17 am
First you’re not allowed to win, now you’re not allowed to lose either.
Everybody has to break even, and make sure they have fun doing so!
Everybody has to break even, and make sure they have fun doing so!