Adam trader

[Iron]

The results of my year long experiment in trading are pretty clear: Any attempt to *react* to the market results in me getting my butt kicked I only win when I can *anticipate* what the market is going to do.

react = get butt kicked
anticipate = win

Not sure I understand...

Surely everyone reacts to the market - the alternative is to ignore what the market is telling you and trade blind!

As for anticipating the market, perhaps being able to make a good educated guess about where the market is going is useful. But there are successful traders who admit that they don't know where the market is going to go when they enter a trade.

The only way Adam could be anticipating what is going to happen enough to make those huge amounts is through receiving external sources of information faster than every one else.

What are the odds on that? I doubt he gets information more quickly than the on-course paddock watchers with their mobile broadbands.

And it seems a bit far fetched that Adam might have someone ringing him up saying 'Pssst! You'd better get a lay order in on Horse A, as the price is about to rocket'!

Jeff

[Zenyatta]

There's a difference between reaction and anticipation. Reaction you're just getting pushed around by what the prices are doing ('I layed and it's going down, oh god, I got it wrong, close the trade'), anticipation you are extrapolating in advance where the prices are going ('the price is more likely to go up in the future, I will ignore what the market is doing at present'). See the difference? Reaction=lose, Anticipation=win.

[Iron]

I see the distinction you're making.

But I disagree with the conclusion 'Reaction=lose, Anticaption=win'. Sometimes it makes sense to ignore a minor pullback. But sometimes it's vital to cut your losses ASAP in response to the market (if it leaves a range for example, and looks like it's about to run away from you)...

Jeff

There's a difference between reaction and anticipation. Reaction you're just getting pushed around by what the prices are doing ('I layed and it's going up, oh god, I got it wrong, close the trade'), anticipation you are extrapolating in advance where the prices are going ('the price is more likely to go down in the future, I will ignore what the market is doing at present'). See the difference? Reaction=lose, Anticaption=win.

[mulberryhawk]

Zenyatta with all due respect I dont think you fully understand horseracing. Its not like the people who have "inside" knowledge ie. trainers and owners know exactly whether their horses should be 2.63 or 2.75.

Its not as exact a science as you make it out to be. If that was the case horses would be backed say straight from 2.75 - 2.63 and wouldent be supported any further or drift back out.

The shrewd ones have a pretty good idea when they have their horses well handicapped and in bad company but in the end the market usually is a pretty good indicator as the volume of money to get on these horses is pretty obvious.

Just because a horse has a theoretical edge on his rivals according to his connections judgements, does also not mean he will go on to win. The point is there are so many races on every day, not every race has a "plot" horse or a handicap good thing. And so if you only trade on inside information u will spend alot of time waiting around for one of your "connections" to give you a tip that a certain horse is fancied.

[bilko]

Just wish people would spend more time in trying to emulate people like Adam and Peter then trying to knock them or talk about them. The same could be said about the new PC charge.

Hopeful Peter and the other 500 traders will find away round this and teach Betfair a lesson in being too greedy.

[steven1976]

Id imagine rather than getting information quicker than others, adam uses his bank to convince the market he knows something quicker than others and then like yourself zanetta people jump on that and before you know it.....

[freddy]

Probably some truth to that towards the end, but he started small and built himself up to those levels,
so It's def not just that.

[enzabella2009]

I suggest you guys to use the training mode. Thanx to it I can come back to trade on horses as it helped me to resolve some issues with my recent tradings. with or without inside informations the market will never steam to 1.01 or drift to 1000 b4 the off, just have that in mind and try to work harder to resolve your own puzzle.

[Zenyatta]

Id imagine rather than getting information quicker than others, adam uses his bank to convince the market he knows something quicker than others and then like yourself zanetta people jump on that and before you know it.....

Sure, this illustrates my point, the big players (the sharks) anticipate, the losers (the fish) react, sharks eats fish. Unfortunately for the big players, there turned out to be the biggest shark of all..Betfair...who has decided to chomp up all the other sharks for breakfast. There's always a bigger shark...

[PeterLe]

Hgodden, good point!

Honestly jeff, I watched him about 3 times, literally stood behind him watching him trade, It looked so easy, I asked why he enters the market when he does and exits when he does, he said it all down to experience and nothing else. He didn't study form or know anything about horses.

He did have this software running called "price it" (I think) and it showed live on course odds and he said that was a good indicator, I used it years ago and it didn't seem to help me at all, then it stopped working.

I don't believe he kept anything a secret, It really was like he was just very good at reading the market.

Hi Rhys
I think you must be part of an elite club to have witnessed Adam trading. Do you mind me asking where you saw him trade?
Regards
Peter

PS I think Adam is truly authentic. I Exchanged a few emails with him many years ago and whilst he didn't reveal how he did it ( nor would I expect him to) he would offer advice where he could - a nice guy actually

[Iron]

"For those who have learned how to be consistent ... the money is not only within their grasp; they can virtually take it at will. I'm sure that some will find this statement shocking or difficult to believe, but it is true. There are some limitations, but for the most part, money flows into the accounts of these traders with such ease and effortlessness that it literally boggles most people's minds."

Mark Douglas, Trading In The Zone

K.I.S.S - have to love it ! Occam's Razor in its rawest form. Sadly not enough of it in the world today.

rg

[Talkbet]

I think one thing you need to remember out of all this is that the whole gambling/betting marketplace is infested with sharks and spivs. There are hundreds/thousands of fake blogs and tipping services out there that promise riches and easy money.
Without knowing him any better then you'd be very wise to take everything Adam ever posted with a huge pinch of salt, if you believed every blog and tipping service out there then 'more fool you' (in the nicest possible sense and to noone in general). I'm not saying he's lieing through his teeth, just that without knowing him personally or seeing him trade, then, to me, he's just another blogger out there and therefore I have no reason to believe or disbelieve him, much the same as all the other sites in the gambling marketplace.
The biggest mistake Adam made was starting his own tipping/trading service, I'm not sure of his motives for this, probably just trying to branch out into other areas and not be glued to trading constantly.
If it's all true then good luck to him, he comes across as a decent enough guy.

[gutuami]

I don't get why people don't believe Adam?

I think that for many people how much he can make threatens their idea of reality - if he's capable of making much more than them then for them to accept that as fact means accepting that they're inferior..

I think the same idea refers to BetFair. When they see that a bunch of traders {combined} make more than them.

[rhysmr2]

Hi Rhys
I think you must be part of an elite club to have witnessed Adam trading. Do you mind me asking where you saw him trade?
Regards
Peter

Hi Peter,

If you read the few posts before that you will see I was not talking about Adam, I've never met Adam Heathcote. I was saying the guy who introduced me to trading was his standard (his level), as in as profitable. Because I witnessed this level of trading first hand I have no reason to doubt Adam is legitimate.

[Loby]

I think the forum is quite betangel visited, so I would like adam posting on forums, tell the truth ... there is nothing wrong with that .... unfortunately I do not believe him, I do not believe in God, imagine if I should adam believe ... it is not to be jealous, but it is about being real, vivevere in reality ... the reality tells me that only 5% make money on Betfair, this 5% 4% works for other ... (mafia, tennis players, football, horse jockeys etch) and then only 1% is a real sport ... but a real trader traders said sport, is never made public, otherwise I repeat, it becomes a dead walking in the ladder Betfair ... this is my thought, and forgive me again for the English is not correct!!