I don't think there will be massive noticeable changes on the 18th. There may be for a few days if the proposed strike goes ahead like what happened with the first PC where people stopped for the day but then came back. The shift will be gradual imo. People who have to start paying 60% probably will carry on in the short term but in the longer term they will move away, change their methods, Betfair are going to change their activity etc etc.Ferru123 wrote:But it will be very interesting to see what happens come the 18th...
Betfair Premium Charge
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I disagree totally with "The majority are likely to be running automated systems which, in effect, allow them to flip the coin many thousands of times every day".
Betfair have killed anyone doing this over time with X-matching, data charges and PC V1.0. I think as you say Peter, very few (if any) of the people caught by this are using automated systems.
Betfair have killed anyone doing this over time with X-matching, data charges and PC V1.0. I think as you say Peter, very few (if any) of the people caught by this are using automated systems.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Bots seem to carry a mythical status with those who have a little knowledge but not enough to understand things fully.
People seem to think all you need is a bot and you are on the road to riches, without understanding that they are not used by anywhere near the number of people they are thought to be and they are only as good as the commands they are given.
Unfortunately it is often the people who are able to comment publicly on the subject that don't have sufficient knowledge. It would be great to have say Peter appear on RUK debating it with a BF rep or say have him on ATR's sunday forum to discuss it a bit like when they had a BF rep on the phone to explain away all the site issues.
People seem to think all you need is a bot and you are on the road to riches, without understanding that they are not used by anywhere near the number of people they are thought to be and they are only as good as the commands they are given.
Unfortunately it is often the people who are able to comment publicly on the subject that don't have sufficient knowledge. It would be great to have say Peter appear on RUK debating it with a BF rep or say have him on ATR's sunday forum to discuss it a bit like when they had a BF rep on the phone to explain away all the site issues.
I agree.andyfuller wrote:It would be great to have say Peter appear on RUK debating it with a BF rep or say have him on ATR's sunday forum to discuss it a bit like when they had a BF rep on the phone to explain away all the site issues.
It would also be good if they offered a phone in, as people could ring up and give the guy from Betfair hell!
Jeff
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
ATR do offer a phone in on Sundays if you want to air your views, not the same as I suggested but a chance for your own opinion to be voiced on air.
4.2 We'll engage with our customers to shape the company's future. -
We encourage Customer interaction via a range of communication options - including by email for feedback on our Customer Commitments. We will conduct research with customers from every country in which we operate to improve our products and future communications with you. Every three months, we'll tell you how many of these projects have been run and in which countries and confirm exactly how many customers have given their opinion.
lol?
We encourage Customer interaction via a range of communication options - including by email for feedback on our Customer Commitments. We will conduct research with customers from every country in which we operate to improve our products and future communications with you. Every three months, we'll tell you how many of these projects have been run and in which countries and confirm exactly how many customers have given their opinion.
lol?
Compleatly agree with all this, annoys me no end when people that are supposed to be experts clearly dont have a clue what they are talking about.andyfuller wrote:Bots seem to carry a mythical status with those who have a little knowledge but not enough to understand things fully.
People seem to think all you need is a bot and you are on the road to riches, without understanding that they are not used by anywhere near the number of people they are thought to be and they are only as good as the commands they are given.
Unfortunately it is often the people who are able to comment publicly on the subject that don't have sufficient knowledge. It would be great to have say Peter appear on RUK debating it with a BF rep or say have him on ATR's sunday forum to discuss it a bit like when they had a BF rep on the phone to explain away all the site issues.
It's like they just think you go buy a bot, press a few buttons and then your rich
, absolutely clueless.Whilst it's not the case that a bot will make you rich overnight, does a good bot not provide you with a long-term edge, and with it a nice, low-risk income?
I'm not implying that there's anything wrong with bots if they do; I'm just curious...
Jeff
I'm not implying that there's anything wrong with bots if they do; I'm just curious...
Jeff
freddy wrote:
Compleatly agree with all this, annoys me no end when people that are supposed to be experts clearly dont have a clue what they are talking about.
It's like they just think you go buy a bot, press a few buttons and then your rich
A 'bot' does not provide an edge. An edge may be implemented by a bot or by a human. Bots benefit from being able to mechanically apply a system faster, and for longer periods of time, and below the minimum wage [sometimes] unlike a human.
I could just about trade the same system as my bot, taking into account latency issues and pure boredom as a slight drain on profits, however it is more effective as a bot. My bot can trade a boring system which provides solid returns through the number of trades/hour and the hit-rate compared with expectation.
Many of the top traders could not be replaced by bots as their 'edge' relies to greatly on intitution, judgement and reactions to new market trends/events which could not [for less than their profits] be turned into a bot.
I could just about trade the same system as my bot, taking into account latency issues and pure boredom as a slight drain on profits, however it is more effective as a bot. My bot can trade a boring system which provides solid returns through the number of trades/hour and the hit-rate compared with expectation.
Many of the top traders could not be replaced by bots as their 'edge' relies to greatly on intitution, judgement and reactions to new market trends/events which could not [for less than their profits] be turned into a bot.
Well yes it can do, but it's not an easy thing to do just like everything else on Bf.Ferru123 wrote:Whilst it's not the case that a bot will make you rich overnight, does a good bot not provide you with a long-term edge, and with it a nice, low-risk income?
I'm not implying that there's anything wrong with bots if they do; I'm just curious...
Jeff
freddy wrote:
Compleatly agree with all this, annoys me no end when people that are supposed to be experts clearly dont have a clue what they are talking about.
It's like they just think you go buy a bot, press a few buttons and then your rich
If you put the hours in and find something that works, then well done to you deserve it imo.
But it's you that has found your edge not the bot
.It just annoys me after reading alot of articles about BF over the years, people seem to think that the only people making money are either ruining bots that place 1,3423453456435 bets per second
or from using fast pictures.Plenty of people make money doing none of those things,
i just think that it's in Betfairs interest to paint the winners in a bad light by subtly implying they have some sort of unfair advantage over the regular users.
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
I try to stay more objective as possible and I can not deny that traders with big banks have benefits using bots and manipulate the market heavily. I'm sure there are many traders who are successful merely by using their skills without heavy intervention in the market .. You should never lowered the guard and believe one version of events. I know that in exchange Betfair has given me so much sht and to make matters worse many of us will be subject to 60% of PCs, but I also know that without some ambiguous intervention in the market I would have gained much more. By reading some forums I read also some distorted truths from some big traders . It is difficult to take a stand at the moment. `In any case I just hope I will survive and invest to find more players to introduce in to the game...
I'm sure market manipulation goes on, but I question how effective it is. For example, if someone tries to spoof the market with a big order, an experienced trader will generally see that it's a spoof.enzabella2009 wrote:I try to stay more objective as possible and I can not deny that traders with big banks have benefits using bots and manipulate the market heavily.
Jeff
I think you are mixing bots up with trading tools here (or maybe I'm reading it wrong). A bot is programmed to do the same thing pretty much over and over constantly day after day. Anyone who would risk using a large bank to manipulate a market using a bot (i.e. totally independent of any human interaction) would be asking for major trouble and would of long since come a cropper before making anywhere near £250k in my opinion.enzabella2009 wrote:I try to stay more objective as possible and I can not deny that traders with big banks have benefits using bots and manipulate the market heavily
Using trading tools such as Betangel / whatever and a big bank is different to using a bot though.
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
I should have been more specific..my mistake..sorry
Don’t get me wrong I think the PC increase is both madness and desperate and its Trojan Horse delivery is disgraceful but for years punters have had problems getting their bets on with the big firms yet they find ways around it. IMO BF are laying the foundations of becoming a bookmaker and have effectively done the same here so the consistent winners (should they wish to continue) will have to think of ways to avoid it.
What’s stopping the big guys (let’s call them the BF500) from renting out a 1 bed flat/office for x months, pay your mate 5% of your profits and get them to create a new BF account. You trade until you make 250K and then leave, repeat infinitum. I’m not sure of the legality or tax implications should you be caught but if BF suspects your activity is dodgy and close you down then move on to flat/office/mate no 2. Yes this is a hassle and yes there are costs incurred but I doubt they will be anything like 60%.
The only issue with this is that eventually BF will have to increase their costs in tracking down this kind of activity and then comes in PCv3!
What’s stopping the big guys (let’s call them the BF500
) from renting out a 1 bed flat/office for x months, pay your mate 5% of your profits and get them to create a new BF account. You trade until you make 250K and then leave, repeat infinitum. I’m not sure of the legality or tax implications should you be caught but if BF suspects your activity is dodgy and close you down then move on to flat/office/mate no 2. Yes this is a hassle and yes there are costs incurred but I doubt they will be anything like 60%.The only issue with this is that eventually BF will have to increase their costs in tracking down this kind of activity and then comes in PCv3!