Trading What I see !?
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Looking at the travel chaos today they might have paid for them before you arrive
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ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:02 pmOk, chart includes the most recent results, profit replicates it pretty well, just fewer data points because I'm creating free bets which leaves much of the profit or loss unrealized. I wonder if there's any advantage to fully hedge vs. free bets.
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- ShaunWhite
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FYI that's not my comment above. Not quite sure what's been editted to make it look like it was.
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I wrote that. I think I accidentally deleted some of the code.
Yes there is, you can change the distribution and variance of the results, because they will be split into much smaller chunks and when you have opposite ones in the same market you will pay less commission.Inforaquid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:00 amOk, chart includes the most recent results, profit replicates it pretty well, just fewer data points because I'm creating free bets which leaves much of the profit or loss unrealized. I wonder if there's any advantage to fully hedge vs. free bets.
Instead you will have to use higher stakes.
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Thanks guys, I really appreciate your kindness in sharing your experience which is invaluable and saves me days or weeks of work time that I can use to discover more advanced things. There are already a few people here to whom I owe like 1000 beers.Trader724 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:45 amYes there is, you can change the distribution and variance of the results, because they will be split into much smaller chunks and when you have opposite ones in the same market you will pay less commission.Inforaquid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:00 amOk, chart includes the most recent results, profit replicates it pretty well, just fewer data points because I'm creating free bets which leaves much of the profit or loss unrealized. I wonder if there's any advantage to fully hedge vs. free bets.
Instead you will have to use higher stakes.
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Win rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event? I'm more concerned with the success of the strategy vs bsp, I can already see very large variance, perhaps that's to be expected given that the total variance is composed of three individual variances.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:40 pm
You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
Stupid question but how can you chaps tell if you're beating BSP? Is it easy to do or do you need some kind of automation to do it? If I look back on yesterdays trades is there an easy way for me to tell if they beat BSP?Inforaquid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:43 amWin rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event? I'm more concerned with the success of the strategy vs bsp, I can already see very large variance, perhaps that's to be expected given that the total variance is composed of three individual variances.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:40 pm
You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
TIA
Bsp is the price you had to bet to break-even, leaving commission aside. If the average price of your back bets is higher than the average bsp then you have beaten the bsp, but the frequency with which this happens must also be taken into account i.e. it happens at least half the time. You can beat bsp with a success rate of less than 50% but in this case the difference between your price and bsp must be higher.Leeds1919 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:52 amStupid question but how can you chaps tell if you're beating BSP? Is it easy to do or do you need some kind of automation to do it? If I look back on yesterdays trades is there an easy way for me to tell if they beat BSP?Inforaquid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:43 amWin rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event? I'm more concerned with the success of the strategy vs bsp, I can already see very large variance, perhaps that's to be expected given that the total variance is composed of three individual variances.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:40 pm
You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
TIA
Thanks for the reply.Trader724 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 12:29 pmBsp is the price you had to bet to break-even, leaving commission aside. If the average price of your back bets is higher than the average bsp then you have beaten the bsp, but the frequency with which this happens must also be taken into account i.e. it happens at least half the time. You can beat bsp with a success rate of less than 50% but in this case the difference between your price and bsp must be higher.Leeds1919 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:52 amStupid question but how can you chaps tell if you're beating BSP? Is it easy to do or do you need some kind of automation to do it? If I look back on yesterdays trades is there an easy way for me to tell if they beat BSP?Inforaquid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:43 am
Win rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event? I'm more concerned with the success of the strategy vs bsp, I can already see very large variance, perhaps that's to be expected given that the total variance is composed of three individual variances.
TIA
Do the same criteria apply if you hedge all your trades at post time like I do?
- ShaunWhite
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I didn't explain it very well. I mean the win rate vs BSP. Ie the pl from unhedged positions runs hot or cold vs the hedged position. BSP is 0ev but can be +ve or -ve for long runs.Inforaquid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:43 amWin rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:40 pm
You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
- ShaunWhite
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yes & no, This might not all be relevent but I'll try and put the topic to bed.
If the hedge doesn't always produce exactly the same amount across the card or you don't hedge, then you can measure your performance like this:
Add up all your pre-hedge bets for any given selection you'll arrive at two figures:
The amount you'll win/lose if the selection loses (IfLose)
The amount you'll win/lose if the selection wins (IfWin)
ie your net position
Then calculate what the SP 'clean' green up figure would have been eg .. IfLose+(IfWin-IfLose)/BSP
If that figure is +ve then you had a net position that was better than bsp, and if it is -ve then you had a net position that was worse than bsp.
I don't actually take much notice of my cash PL, my automation gets close to a level figure across the card but there might be a pound or two difference and quite often a bigger difference if there was a very late bet and I didn't adjust my hedge in time. So I always look at my 'clean' green figure because over time the two are very similar.
In this, the red line is the 'clean' PL and the blue line is the actual messy real world figure. Even though the blue has bad patches, the red line is the sanity figure that says you're doing ok. It also has the advantage of seeing if you've been winning more or less than you 'should' and to expect a better or worse patch soon. It's essential for betting strategies because you can be losing cash when the strategy is sound or winning cash when it isn't. If the red line, the amount you've beaten BSP by, is going up then hang in there.
Hope that helped. fyi that's a 6 month view so quite long good & bad spells that would have been headscratchers without the truer bsp benchmarked figure.
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