Ukraine Crisis

[Archery1969]

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov - a staunch supporter of President Vladimir Putin - appeared to question Moscow's military strategy.

In a message posted to Telegram, Mr Kadyrov said if there was not a change in Russia's fortunes, he would be forced to question the country's leadership to explain the situation.



Also, its been reported on the BBC that Putin is furious as the recent attacks in Crimea which destroyed 18 fighter jets and 4 ammunition depot was hit by HIMARS rockets which the S-300 air defence system failed to engage or stop. Everyone was told that Ukraine would only get the 80 mile rockets but footage and experts say they were launched from over 200 miles away.

And footage from Ukraine shows they using the US made M982 Excalibur 155 mm extended-range guided artillery shells. I never even knew you could have guided artillery rounds. But they not cheap at $258,777 per unit.

I think Joe has been a nuaghty president.

[greenmark]

Orla Guerin looks absolutely knackered. Hope she's OK.

[Derek27]

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov - a staunch supporter of President Vladimir Putin - appeared to question Moscow's military strategy.

In a message posted to Telegram, Mr Kadyrov said if there was not a change in Russia's fortunes, he would be forced to question the country's leadership to explain the situation.



Also, its been reported on the BBC that Putin is furious as the recent attacks in Crimea which destroyed 18 fighter jets and 4 ammunition depot was hit by HIMARS rockets which the S-300 air defence system failed to engage or stop. Everyone was told that Ukraine would only get the 80 mile rockets but footage and experts say they were launched from over 200 miles away.

And footage from Ukraine shows they using the US made M982 Excalibur 155 mm extended-range guided artillery shells. I never even knew you could have guided artillery rounds. But they not cheap at $258,777 per unit.

I think Joe has been a nuaghty president.

I've given up trying to keep up with military, or even computer technology.

I was just thinking, if Putin was the first to congratulate King Charles on the death of his mother (most offer sympathies), he must be doing it with his own best interests in mind. He must be desperate to pull out of his disastrous war without being humiliated and you would think the queen's passing and all the distraction that goes with it would be the perfect opportunity. He could have simply given the order to pull out and nobody would know about it as Russia is the only place in the world with any news coverage. Or he could simply say that after the queen's death he's too upset to persevere with the war. The rest of the world is incapacitated so why shouldn't he be?

[Archery1969]

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov - a staunch supporter of President Vladimir Putin - appeared to question Moscow's military strategy.

In a message posted to Telegram, Mr Kadyrov said if there was not a change in Russia's fortunes, he would be forced to question the country's leadership to explain the situation.



Also, its been reported on the BBC that Putin is furious as the recent attacks in Crimea which destroyed 18 fighter jets and 4 ammunition depot was hit by HIMARS rockets which the S-300 air defence system failed to engage or stop. Everyone was told that Ukraine would only get the 80 mile rockets but footage and experts say they were launched from over 200 miles away.

And footage from Ukraine shows they using the US made M982 Excalibur 155 mm extended-range guided artillery shells. I never even knew you could have guided artillery rounds. But they not cheap at $258,777 per unit.

I think Joe has been a nuaghty president.

I've given up trying to keep up with military, or even computer technology.

I was just thinking, if Putin was the first to congratulate King Charles on the death of his mother (most offer sympathies), he must be doing it with his own best interests in mind. He must be desperate to pull out of his disastrous war without being humiliated and you would think the queen's passing and all the distraction that goes with it would be the perfect opportunity. He could have simply given the order to pull out and nobody would know about it as Russia is the only place in the world with any news coverage. Or he could simply say that after the queen's death he's too upset to persevere with the war. The rest of the world is incapacitated so why shouldn't he be?

The Chechen situation is dire for Putin, that bloke is a callous killer who murdered thousands of Russian troops during Chechen war. Putin asked for help thinking they would destroy Ukraine. It’s backfired, he maybe a disgusting person but he can see that Russia is losing and thousands are deserting, leaving their equipment behind.

This could be the start of Putin being toppled. I imagine serious questions are now being asked at FSB top levels on how to get out of this situation.

It’s clear that the USA has not been open with what weapons they supplied to Ukraine plus the UK MOD let slip the SAS have been on the ground since March training their soldiers how to use the NLAW handheld rockets. It’s obvious they been fighting along side them.

But you are correct in that Putin now needs a way out, winter is coming and his troops will end up freezing / starving to death by being cutoff from supply chains.

Viv la Ukraine.

[Archery1969]

According to the BBC In some areas Russian troops are outnumbered 8 to 1.

What happened to this big army Russia had ?

[Euler]

All this news coming out of Ukraine is very postive.

[greenmark]

According to the BBC In some areas Russian troops are outnumbered 8 to 1.

What happened to this big army Russia had ?

It seems weird that he can't force reservists to fight without declaring war.
But the fact lots are refusing to fight tells you a lot about the validity of the whole project.

[Kai]

Definitely a turning point in this war, even the Russian state media seems to be acknowledging it.

[greenmark]

Reports of equipement and ammunition being abandoned suggests a disorderly retreat by Russia rather than regrouping to finish off the conquest of the Donbas. Time will tell.
I think back to the beginning when I thought Russia would sweep through and occupy Ukraine in weeks. And I remember TraderPat being certain Russia didn't have the capacity (outside the use of nukes) to achieve that.
The big problem for me is that Putin has displayed no humility, ever. He has wrecked entente with the West with seemingly strategic zeal.
Our only hope is Russians stop this madness and rebuild relationships. It isn't rocket science it just takes courage to peacefully re-engage with an "enemy".

[Jukebox]

Losing ground and losing control of the front could still mean worse atrocities to come from those in control in Russia.

After D-Day, The Battle of Normandy and even the liberation of Paris - Then came the V2s and the murder camps seemingly just worked with greater urgency.

[Kai]

Losing ground and losing control of the front could still mean worse atrocities to come from those in control in Russia.

Like their latest reaction to cause blackouts by going after Ukrainian power plants.

At this point the Russian army is only effective against civilians and civilian infrastructure. They are really good at razing entire cities.

[Kai]

The most obvious Russian exit strategy is still to just pin everything on Putin and label him a traitor etc, like they did with the many dictators before him over the past century.

It's going to take decades for the relevant authorities to go through the long list of war crimes already committed in this invasion.

[greenmark]

Losing ground and losing control of the front could still mean worse atrocities to come from those in control in Russia.

Like their latest reaction to cause blackouts by going after Ukrainian power plants.

At this point the Russian army is only effective against civilians and civilian infrastructure. They are really good at razing entire cities.

Indeed, everything I've read has left me with the opinion that Russian warfare is a sledgehammer. But let's face it the US carpet-bombing and deployment of napalm in Vietnam was less than targeted.

[Archery1969]

Something doesn't add up, see image below. Russia has 850,000 active regular soldiers. In theory they shouldn't need to call up reserves. Just look at the number of fighter jets and attack helicopters.

On paper they should have walked over Ukraine in weeks. Obviously I am glad they didn't.

One thing is for sure, exclude Nuclear Weapons and NATO would destory Russia in days.

[Archery1969]

And to recap:

Ukrainian troops have inflicted a "major operational defeat" on Russian forces, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) told the BBC that Russian positions in Kharkiv had suffered a "total collapse."

Prof Michael Clarke of King's College London told the BBC the Russians had suffered a "major intelligence failure" in Kharkiv, underestimating the strength of Ukrainian forces and their capacity to rotate fresh troops to and from the front lines.

The ISW says Russian forces now face a "terrible dilemma". Lacking resources to fight effectively in the east, they need to decide whether to send troops back to the front line near Kharkiv from Kherson in the south. But they know that by doing so, they may compromise their positions near Kherson and risk defeat.

Western shipments of weaponry are being used heavily by Ukrainian forces. Early in the conflict Ukraine used primarily Warsaw Pact munitions, which they had been using for several decades. But many units have now made the transition to Nato standard equipment, including artillery and ammunition. Multiple launch rocket systems such as the US-made Himars have been used in both Kharkiv and Kherson, according to the ISW.