Advice for a wannabe trader?

[Newbie Trader]

Hi Guys,

I've been trading (or trying to) for about a month now and while somedays I feel like I'm making progress other days I feel like that I'll never be able to make a living out of this.

I'm just wondering from some of you guys who make a living from trading how long it was before the markets started making sense to you? Is it just a case of looking at the markets day after day for months before they start making sense to you or is there a cut off point when you have to say to yourself 'Right I'll never be able to figure this out'!

I have watched lots or videos on youtube and found some of them very helpful but what I'd really love to hear from you succesful traders is how long it took you before you could actually make sense of what was happening on the screen in front of you I'm not asking how long it was before you started to make money because I know if I can understand the market then the money will come but it would be nice to have a rough date in mind where i can say to myself that if I havent figured it out by October, November etc.... then I should perhaps concentrate on something else and be content that I at least tried.

P.S. If anyone answers I promise not to ask for any trading secrets or tips

Thanks in advance

[JollyGreen]

Hi and welcome

It is a very difficult thing to answer, it's a bit like the "how long is a piece of string" question. That is not a condescending comment, it really is that tricky.

I have seen people who pick it up in a month and I have also seen people who don't get it after a year. The former learners don't turn Pro but they start to understand what is happening. It is then a question of getting as much information as possible and minimising errors.

If you are serious then consider one of the courses from Peter at Betting Exchange Academy
I have said on here before that can never know too much about a subject.

If you know why you made a profit and can repeat it then you are on the right track. If you cannot explain why and also not repeat it then obviously you are not. I know that sounds a bit stupid but when you are able to repeat something you are on the correct route. You can then look at other methods and start to build an array of methods that you can use on different markets.

I hope that helps, feel free to ask other questions.

[Zenyatta]

I guess I'm the representative of your 'average Joe' here. I still wasn't able to make consistent profits after a year of trying (Feb last year - Feb this year). The general consensus on the betting forums is that it does indeed take the average person about 1 year to pick it up, so then my experience would be fairly typical. I can image if you were extremely clever you could start making profits in far less time - within only 1-2 months (which some on the forums say they were able to do).

If it were easy, everyone would be doing it, unfortunately there's no easy route, so if you're looking for quick profits you're going to end up very frustrated. You really have to have an interest in the sports you want to trade/punt. Good luck.

[Iron]

I disagree. In fact, knowing nothing about the sport can be an advantage, as it means you just trade the numbers, rather than basing your decisions on where you think the price 'should' be...

JEff

You really have to have an interest in the sports you want to trade/punt.

[Zenyatta]

Knowledge of form is where my edge comes from. So far as I can tell, Jolly Green is also a student of form. But I can accept that plenty of other people can trade successfully without any knowledge of form -presumably their edges come from elsewhere - logic, statistics, psychology and so on.

[mulberryhawk]

Zenyatta, I cant understand how by studying form you can trade 30 races a day through form knowledge.......its just physically impossible. Also just cause a horse has the best form doesent necessarily translate into a steamer.

I know and understand form but I also know that arriving at decision on who I think will win the race is a subjective opinion. And if other market participants disagree with me then the horse will drift and not steam no matter what my knowledge of form.

Could you please tell me who you think will win the july cup, spring mile or john smiths cup today based on your form study, and then tell me will they be backed.

[Zenyatta]

Hi,

I agree you can't handicap every race, but clearly there are successful punters, so clearly it's possible to price up at least some races in advance.

I think 'Delegator' will steam in Pre-Race in the July Cup (early line is 6.20), and might win.

Addendum: Picked that one wrong. But I maintain that form students can get it right 80% of the time if being highly selective. The other 20% of the time, have to close the trade fast when it all turns to custard like it did here.

[jimrobo]

I had no clue about horse racing even though I was succesfull at trading it pre race.

I have quite a lot of knowledge about rugby but can never make money from the rugby markets.

Knowledge can be a double edge sword IMHO

[Euler]

If you want a good case study I am 'learning' how best to trade Betdaq markets at the moment. I say 'learning' because I already have traded on Betdaq succesfully already but I want to rachet it up a level and do well across the board rather than just on big meetings.

My approach is to try as many different things as possible to learn about the characterisitcs of the market. Stuff that works get my attention and things that don't get discarded quickly. But on both counts I try and understand why either will work or not and what they teach me. It's a slow process but it means you keep moving forward bit by bit while you get a feel for the markets. Trading at random you won't lose much money so all you are trying to do at any one point is tip things slightly in your favour. You can do that in many ways.

[rhysmr2]

I still have no knowledge in horse racing, I've been a full time trader for about 5 years.

For me the first few months I was losing money then next few I was breaking even and by the end of the year I'd made a profit but not much.

I would say it took me about 2 years to start make a decent living from trading, I peaked last year and this year I've struggled but still making as much as I did working full time.

[mulberryhawk]

zenyatta thats my point, Delegator has some great back form ( only beaten by the great sea the stars in the 2000 guinneas )however if you have spent an hour or so studying form and then the market disagrees whats the point?

Now theres 30 or more races a day so where does that leave you. its too labour intensive unless your a professional gambler which is what i suspect you kind of are.

[Zenyatta]

Well,

If the market disagrees pre-race, I can always back them in-play as well, or let it go to SP requesting a fixed number of ticks with greening (Offsetting with greening and Take SP, I always win a fixed profit provided the selection wins, regardless of the final price).

Yes, form study does take 1-1.5 hours per day, but after that, no more work is required provided I've automated the trades with a spread-sheet. Whereas, other traders are sitting in front of the screen for 3-4 hours.

[Newbie Trader]

Thanks for all your responses and advice guys.

I feel a little guilty for starting an argument/debate though!

From what i can gather from your responses though it seems to really depend on the individual how long it takes which i suppose makes sense.

Is it something though that given enough time and effort most people will come to understand or is it more like a sporting skill where some people have it and some dont regardless of how much time u put into it?

Jollygreen thanks for your advice especially, i'm trying to disect good trades and bad trades so i think i'm on the right track there and as for the courses you mentioned i'm very interested but would rather wait until i have a basic understanding before splashing out. I dont want to be the guy in the room who has no idea whats going on

Thanks for your support though, i'll keep on putting the hours in and hopefully be able to have something positive to report in the next few months

thanks again

[pedrobob]

Im a new trader as well coming from form student back ground and found that knowing form definitely helps.
Not that the one's I fancy are non stop steamers but the one's that have a chance on form,especially one's trained by one of the big guns, try to get pushed out by traders but always come back to the price they were.Likewise the ones that are backed but have holes in form always go back as well.
Zenyatta i know it's after the event but don't know what form book you were reading on July Cup! Delegator never won a group 1 in its life - only two group 1 horses in field - Star Witness/Dream Ahead.Dream Ahead about stone clear on official ratings - did you not see the middle park last year?
Anyway wasnt trading yesterday just had large bet on Dream Ahead so dont know if my point about form book/trading worked out on 2 horses I mentioned

[Zenyatta]

yes I had a major brain fart on the July Cup, for sure.

trading is a bit tricky for form students, because many of the price movements pre-race dont necesserily correspond to form fundamentals, and some selections are better just punted In-Play. Some selections which are objectively good punts, are not neccesserily good to trade pre-race.

a lot of the price moves pre-race are, to put it mildly, 'complete bullshit' - many price moves are heavily manipulated in a very cynical fashion, so just be aware of that.