Today's Football

[sionascaig]

from BBC website:

Uefa has moved Rangers' Champions League home game against Napoli from Tuesday to Wednesday, "due to the severe limitations on police resources and organisational issues related to the ongoing events surrounding the national mourning for Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II".

Meanwhile, Tottenham have confirmed their Champions League game away to Sporting Lisbon on Tuesday is "going ahead as planned."

Ten Premier League games were postponed over the weekend, including Monday's match between Leeds United and Nottingham Forest.

Policing games could be a factor in the decision if forces are redeployed to London before the Queen's funeral.

There are currently three matches scheduled to take place in the capital. Tottenham play Leicester on Saturday evening, while Brentford face Arsenal and Chelsea are at home to Liverpool on Sunday, 18 September.

Manchester City's Champions League home game with Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday is due to go ahead as planned, as is Manchester United's Europa League game with FC Sheriff in Moldova on Thursday.

[greenmark]

It's more than a glitch.

• He gave away a penalty against Fulham with a clumsy tackle on Mitrovic.

• That moment against Utd when he stood there with no arms like a manakin in a shop window

• Could have been sent off against Everton for a bad tackle on Onana

• Gave away a penalty against Napoli with another clumsy tackle when he was done for pace ( ) by Oshimen even though he was goalside

Thats two penalties given away in seven games and a string of other mistakes that he wasn't making last season. He hasn't become a bad player since last season but he looks mentally shot and so do 4 or 5 other players.

Agreed Pat, I think he's a different player since he came back from the wonky knee. He's definitely lost a yard of pace, but he doesn't seem as domineering as he was previously either, like he's 90-95% going for things when he used to be 110% The extra effort he used to put in was able to make up for Trent or Robbo being caught out of position, but now it's not and it's being exposed way too often when he doesn't get back to cover their positions.

I think getting left out of the WC squad could be just what he needs so he has time off to look at himself and see if he wants to be a full back or a winger/midfielder, he's still only 23 so he's not a million miles away agewise from Bale was when he moved to the wing I think.

VVD and TTA are under scrutiny now. But the midfield is weak at the moment. Lack of protection either from a defensively solid midfiield or pacey, pressing, attacking one is exposing TTA and VVD. Not helped by Gomez not really being up to snuff (yet?).

[wearthefoxhat]

Just trying out my football prediction algo to see if there is any value out there to be had. (early days as yet)

Champ.png

[MobiusGrey]

Just trying out my football prediction algo to see if there is any value out there to be had. (early days as yet)


Champ.png

Interesting. Ever since you pointed me towards the VRR sheet I've been down a rabbit hole of finding value bets rather than 'trading'. I've now extended this across football and tennis so what you're doing here is of great interest to me. Naturally I know you can't give away exactly what you're doing but just so I know I'm along the right path are you creating a tissue using past form to calculate what you believe are the 'true' odds and then placing what you believe to be value bets on the back of this, for example in your top selection the away odds are 1.99 yet BF has these over odds on, therefore you would take the BF odds as this represents value?

[wearthefoxhat]

Just trying out my football prediction algo to see if there is any value out there to be had. (early days as yet)


Champ.png

Interesting. Ever since you pointed me towards the VRR sheet I've been down a rabbit hole of finding value bets rather than 'trading'. I've now extended this across football and tennis so what you're doing here is of great interest to me. Naturally I know you can't give away exactly what you're doing but just so I know I'm along the right path are you creating a tissue using past form to calculate what you believe are the 'true' odds and then placing what you believe to be value bets on the back of this, for example in your top selection the away odds are 1.99 yet BF has these over odds on, therefore you would take the BF odds as this represents value?

H/D/A probability is calculated to a 100% book and converted into decimal odds. (based on current form) and taking into account the record of each team and if they are Home/Away. The converted odds are the raw odds using the raw form data. In the info posted, Watford are predicted at 1.99, but 2.58 is available and looks to be value as the Home/Draw odds are not. Watford have drawn 4/4 away so the odds compilers/market seems to lean this way, maybe too much.

Going forward, I'll need to factor in key players availability/injuries. (team selection not known until nearer kick off) Then need to decide if the value is still relevant.

It can essentially be used on any league.

[MobiusGrey]

"Raw form data" where is this obtained from? Is this just your typical stats site like soccerstats etc?

Also, I found this an interesting read a while back, doesn't really give anything away but interesting nevertheless

https://tradematesports.medium.com/how- ... 36b4937439

[wearthefoxhat]

"Raw form data" where is this obtained from? Is this just your typical stats site like soccerstats etc?

Also, I found this an interesting read a while back, doesn't really give anything away but interesting nevertheless

https://tradematesports.medium.com/how- ... 36b4937439

Yep, soccerstats info.

Thanks for the link.

[Derek27]

Liverpool should sell their unsold under 19 match tickets on the ASDA reduced to clear shelf. There were more people viewing that shelf than there were viewing the Ajax match.

[mrblue]

Spurs UCL game just finished and they lost 2-0.
Betfair tweeted that correct score was matched at 1000!

https://twitter.com/BetfairExchange/sta ... 7071919106

[jamesedwards]

Can't believe they're going to try and have a minute's silence for the Queen at Anfield.

[jamesedwards]

Can't believe they're going to try and have a minute's silence for the Queen at Anfield.

Oh well, that was better than I expected to be honest. Just a few jeers although I notice the ref blew only about half way through. Good job they didnt try and get them to sing the National Anthem.

[Dallas]

Can't believe they're going to try and have a minute's silence for the Queen at Anfield.

Oh well, that was better than I expected to be honest. Just a few jeers although I notice the ref blew only about half way through. Good job they didnt try and get them to sing the National Anthem.

I'd expect the minute silence to be observed and respected at Anfield and among Liverpool fans more than almost any other ground

[Derek27]

Spurs UCL game just finished and they lost 2-0.
Betfair tweeted that correct score was matched at 1000!

https://twitter.com/BetfairExchange/sta ... 7071919106

I lost on over 2.5 but had a free bet on under 1.5 and thought I had it covered.

[weemac]

Spurs UCL game just finished and they lost 2-0.
Betfair tweeted that correct score was matched at 1000!

https://twitter.com/BetfairExchange/sta ... 7071919106

It was pennies.

[Derek27]

Spurs UCL game just finished and they lost 2-0.
Betfair tweeted that correct score was matched at 1000!

https://twitter.com/BetfairExchange/sta ... 7071919106

It was pennies.

Betfair often brags about what price gets matched without saying how much was matched. Nevertheless, each penny has cost someone £10.