Moral of the Betfair fiasco : Always have two of everything

[Zenyatta]

Let me tell you a story. I was in London end of '08, beginning of'09, was headed up to Edinburgh to see some friends. Tried to use the credit card, but it got rejected due to getting maxed out. I had no backup, that was my only card. I learned my lesson that day, and later got a second credit card with another bank...so two credit cards.. one for general use, one as a backup.

So, what happens when it all turns to custard on Betfair? The backup was BetDaq of course. Again, two exchanges, one for general use, one as a backup. People should have been doing this years ago, not suddenly getting into a panic and trying to migrate to BetDaq now. And of course, if you've migrated to BetDaq and that's your main exchange, you should then be looking for a new backup.

The general life lesson is this: always have a Plan B. When Plan A fails, you can then smoothly switch instantly to Plan B. People could save themselves so much pain if they'd just follow this simple rule, I know I would had. Always have two of everything!

Two cards, two accounts, two computers...etc. Even apply the rule to personal life: have two girlfriends...if it goes bad with one girlfriend, you can then drop that one like a hot potato and smoothly switch to the other (or if married, always have a mistress you can smoothly switch to and so on).

Always have two of everything!

[petemalta1]

Balls - thats where Hitler went wrong

[lewismbet]

This is similar to much of what Nassim taleb has written about in relation to fragility and redundancy. I believe most people should be exposed to his ideas and more so anyone who is interested [in passing or financially] in risk, forecasting and markets.

Efficiency creates weakness and fragility.

[Euler]

I've been banging on for years about how Betfair's dominance was a major problem for the future of the industry. Unfortunately a number of people just positioned this as me having a commercial incentive to promote rival exchanges, which was not ture. Hopefully people can better understand what I have been trying to say now.