Hi all,
In Guardian, I want to back/lay certain selections in thoroughbred races at their starting price (SP), based on their SP favouritism at the off.
For example, back 4th favourite based on SP, at its starting price. Of course, the 4th favourite based on SP might have actually been the 6th or 7th favourite 10 seconds before the off.
The problem I think I'm encountering is that if the bet is triggered 1 minute before the off (or even 10 seconds), the 4th favourite might become something different by the off.
I've made my automation trigger at 1 second after event start (to account for the fact that races never start on time) for best market price, however after comparing Betfair data with my results, there is still a fairly big discrepancy between the odds I get matched with and the BSP of the selection.
To put it differently, I want to reverse engineer Betfair's results as best I can. For example, if Winx finished as first favourite at 1.75 SP, then I want the automation to have been able to identify that Winx was first favourite at the off based on its SP, and place the bet accordingly at its SP...EVEN if it was second favourite at 2.50, 10 seconds before the off.
I don't think the "Take SP" rule will work because the automation can't know which selection to trigger the bet on until the SP is actually known (because the favouritism depends on SP)...I was wondering whether "Take SP" might work in conjunction with changing my favouritism settings to determine favouritism by SP, with the bet triggered at maybe 0 seconds after start time of event?
Is there any way around this? Or is it just impossible to write an automation like this?
Sorry in advance if I haven't expressed myself clearly.
Cheers!
Matt
BSP and Favouritism
Betfair Starting Price doesn't get calculated until after the off, so it's not possible to know, or even predict who will start 4th favourite.Lokir90 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:31 pmHi all,
In Guardian, I want to back/lay certain selections in thoroughbred races at their starting price (SP), based on their SP favouritism at the off.
For example, back 4th favourite based on SP, at its starting price. Of course, the 4th favourite based on SP might have actually been the 6th or 7th favourite 10 seconds before the off.
The problem I think I'm encountering is that if the bet is triggered 1 minute before the off (or even 10 seconds), the 4th favourite might become something different by the off.
I've made my automation trigger at 1 second after event start (to account for the fact that races never start on time) for best market price, however after comparing Betfair data with my results, there is still a fairly big discrepancy between the odds I get matched with and the BSP of the selection.
To put it differently, I want to reverse engineer Betfair's results as best I can. For example, if Winx finished as first favourite at 1.75 SP, then I want the automation to have been able to identify that Winx was first favourite at the off based on its SP, and place the bet accordingly at its SP...EVEN if it was second favourite at 2.50, 10 seconds before the off.
I don't think the "Take SP" rule will work because the automation can't know which selection to trigger the bet on until the SP is actually known (because the favouritism depends on SP)...I was wondering whether "Take SP" might work in conjunction with changing my favouritism settings to determine favouritism by SP, with the bet triggered at maybe 0 seconds after start time of event?
Is there any way around this? Or is it just impossible to write an automation like this?
Sorry in advance if I haven't expressed myself clearly.
Cheers!
Matt
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10570
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You can't guarentee it will be correct but SP is, on average and within reasonable expectations, very close to the last traded price (enough caviates 
) . You can have Guardian bet on the 4th fav, and if that's not the same as the 4th fav on the previous cycle 20ms ago then cancel the prior bet and place the new bet instead.
It helps to think about what you'd do IRL. You'd bet, then watch the screens, and if the favouritism changed you'd quickly go and cancel your bet and have a new one. And you'd do that until the race started.
) . You can have Guardian bet on the 4th fav, and if that's not the same as the 4th fav on the previous cycle 20ms ago then cancel the prior bet and place the new bet instead.It helps to think about what you'd do IRL. You'd bet, then watch the screens, and if the favouritism changed you'd quickly go and cancel your bet and have a new one. And you'd do that until the race started.