UK Economy

[Archangel]

What are the odds on Truss surviving until the next scheduled election date ?

[Dallas]

What are the odds on Truss surviving until the next scheduled election date ?

Depends if the election is in 2023, 24 or 25

Current prices are
2.64, 2.8 and 3.5

There's a market also now opened for a vote of no confidence before then, but spreads are still very large
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .204008556

[Derek27]

What are the odds on Truss surviving until the next scheduled election date ?

Depends if the election is in 2023, 24 or 25

Current prices are
2.64, 2.8 and 3.5

There's a market also now opened for a vote of no confidence before then, but spreads are still very large
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .204008556

Spreads are wide but clearly odds-on.

[Archangel]

Maybe the Tories are deliberately trying to lose power now. The economy is going the wrong way and going to get worse. They knew Truss was going to be unpoplular with the wider country but stuck her in anyway. I think they will gladly hand over the whole shit show to Labour now and let them deal with it for 5 years, then return saying they are the only ones who can be trusted with the economy

[greenmark]

Maybe the Tories are deliberately trying to lose power now. The economy is going the wrong way and going to get worse. They knew Truss was going to be unpoplular with the wider country but stuck her in anyway. I think they will gladly hand over the whole shit show to Labour now and let them deal with it for 5 years, then return saying they are the only ones who can be trusted with the economy

I had the same thoughts but concluded that politicians won't vote for things that threaten their status as an MP. So Tory MP's judged that Truss is going to lose them their seats. The membership don't care about that. They seem to have been seduced by her aping Thatcherism. It just shows being so long in power is a bad idea. The judgement that gets you into power gradually gets eroded by a smug belief in your parties infallibility.

[Archangel]

Maybe the Tories are deliberately trying to lose power now. The economy is going the wrong way and going to get worse. They knew Truss was going to be unpoplular with the wider country but stuck her in anyway. I think they will gladly hand over the whole shit show to Labour now and let them deal with it for 5 years, then return saying they are the only ones who can be trusted with the economy

I had the same thoughts but concluded that politicians won't vote for things that threaten their status as an MP. So Tory MP's judged that Truss is going to lose them their seats. The membership don't care about that. They seem to have been seduced by her aping Thatcherism. It just shows being so long in power is a bad idea. The judgement that gets you into power gradually gets eroded by a smug belief in your parties infallibility.

Yes I would agree with that. There is a sense of self delusion about them now as they have been in power so long. It probably doesn't help that certain elements of the media refuse to criticise them either, no matter what.
Rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic etc...

[greenmark]

Maybe the Tories are deliberately trying to lose power now. The economy is going the wrong way and going to get worse. They knew Truss was going to be unpoplular with the wider country but stuck her in anyway. I think they will gladly hand over the whole shit show to Labour now and let them deal with it for 5 years, then return saying they are the only ones who can be trusted with the economy

I had the same thoughts but concluded that politicians won't vote for things that threaten their status as an MP. So Tory MP's judged that Truss is going to lose them their seats. The membership don't care about that. They seem to have been seduced by her aping Thatcherism. It just shows being so long in power is a bad idea. The judgement that gets you into power gradually gets eroded by a smug belief in your parties infallibility.

Yes I would agree with that. There is a sense of self delusion about them now as they have been in power so long. It probably doesn't help that certain elements of the media refuse to criticise them either, no matter what.
Rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic etc...

That's a very bleak reference, but I hope you're wrong.

[Archangel]

UK companies have suddenly become very cheap relative to the Dollar. I wonder will we see a fire sale of assets on the horizon

[Archery1969]

I hope the BOE raises interest rates to Turkey levels. Don’t have a mortgage anymore and need a boost to my savings.

[Derek27]

Sunak must feel vindicated already!

[Archangel]

I do have some US Dollar investments. Every cloud !

[Derek27]

I'm beginning to feel some of the Martingalers on this forum could do a better job of running the economy.

[Derek27]

The Tories probably wish they never got rid of Johnson.

[Emmson]

I note this thread was created by superfrank, I almost wish he would pop back and explain how almost all his forecasts have been super wrong in this thread and others like Brexit thread. He was jubilant on the night of last general election, taunting those of us who had Boris and the Tories number.

[Derek27]

When Johnson was bringing the party down, Tory MPs were calling for him to go. The problem they've got now is calling for Truss to go would be suicide. All they can do is pray that her policies work.