Dallas : How can you track wins/losses of a strategy

[NotBothered]

3 bets 3 wins

slow profit wise - but like I said it will build as we move along

[NotBothered]

Like you cannot say to me what happens if you only have a 50% Strike Rate

because if the strategy was performing like that I would not run it... I would build a different strategy

this strategy with how it works - wins at almost 100% SR

So many of the what ifs ands or buts - mean nothing - because those situations are not occurring.

It is great your concerned about them - but like I said I would change the strategy if it were needed.

[NotBothered]

you take this race - it recognized the favorite was a risk

so it dutched 3 runners including the 11/1 winner of the race

and that makes 4/4 -- the automation just has not caught up to the results yet .. so the profit has not updated


but this is what it does - it calculates the races and dutches the best 3 chances in its estimation - and it is very rarely wrong

[NotBothered]

next race Luthorman $3.90 temora

that wins 5 bets 5 wins

[NotBothered]

its going to be the same all day -- winner after winner

same with horses when they start -- it will be winner after winner

Dutching the 3 runners - makes it very likely it wins every time -- if it had to just pick 1 - then the accuracy would drop... but this is dutching strategy.

[NotBothered]

next race Murray Bridge - suggests no bet

[NotBothered]

and like I said it will auto adjust its betting from 3 - 15 bets depending on what it sees.

so you get a range of profits depending on the situation.

of course it is possible for it to lose a race - but that happens very infrequently compared to the number of races it bets.

[NotBothered]

next race 6/6 Temora the 8 dog $2.68

next race 7/7 Murray Bridge 5 dog $5

you get the idea .. it just rarely loses a race - I am not going to keep posting these I think this is enough.

My strategy works as is - it does not need adjusting -- if someone has got better ideas - then great - they can write their own thread and we can all read those and move forward.

[Derek27]

I'll try and briefly summarise your thread.

its going to be the same all day -- winner after winner

same with horses when they start -- it will be winner after winner

Dutching the 3 runners - makes it very likely it wins every time -- if it had to just pick 1 - then the accuracy would drop... but this is dutching strategy.

...which is why...

.... basically just wanting to avoid getting stuck in a losing streak

Of course you do. When you know you're going to get winner after winner all day, the big worry is a long losing run.

you get the idea ..

No, sorry, haven't a clue what whether you're confident of success or petrified of a losing run.

I am not going to keep posting these I think this is enough.

I agree with that, it is enough.

My strategy works as is - it does not need adjusting

...which is why...

.... basically just wanting to avoid getting stuck in a losing streak

if someone has got better ideas - then great - they can write their own thread and we can all read those and move forward.

We're approaching 300,000 posts, but more relevantly, people on this forum collectively have exercised your idea of writing their own thread 22,046 times before you even suggested it, so you're a bit late.

Capture.GIF

[NotBothered]

what your confusing is the various versions I made

initially when it was vanilla it had losing streaks now with - the additions and adjustments it loses very rarely

there is no point quoting the way you did because taking those means they are out of context


My number one point has been and will always be -- people can make these posts not understanding what is going on -- and somehow they think they are the subject expert -- yet there are no threads that I see in the forum that lead people to making one cent.

So maybe just back off quoting things that refer to other points and focus on where this project is right now - at this second

The answer to that is it makes $500 a day on dogs and $500 a day on horses when there are enough races.


So lets you and I take a break Derek - as like I said you are now confusing various points of the project and that is not helpful.

[NotBothered]

maybe a long time ago people actually wrote threads with ideas and strategies that make money

but I personally did not see any .. which is why I started adding the information I was working on.

Like I said -- Posters for some reason feel entitled to misquote things - take things out of context and generally not understand what things mean -- I blame myself for some of that - in that I understand how things work - but I am not going to give away $3,000 a day by just donating my work to this forum.

I really feel sorry for the average user of Bet Angel - because they almost have no chance to make money using the software -- because most posters - post general advice which means nothing.

Like you telling me what happens if my strike rate is 50% -- my strike rate is 99% .. if it was 50% I would make another strategy .... this is not my problem - this is you not paying attention to the details of what is written.

So with that - this completes my posting on this forum -- you guys are missing out on the one person - who can back up every statement - every result and can actually make winning strategy -- because there seems to be very few people who can do that.

Good Luck to you guys really - you are going to need it.

[sniffer66]

Ok, I'll wade in

I'm trying to understand your strategy here. So, you have a selection method that picks x number of runners to dutch in a race (could be any number of runners). That method is ev+, but you are trying to reduce losing runs by doing y, therefore increasing profit.

So "y", is when you are hitting a loser your entries are paused until...what ? Are you using the outcomes of the missed races to predict when to start entering again ? Are you looking for a dip below your SR% and hoping it's going to return to mean ? Or do you have backtest data on the previous max consecutive losses ? Or something else ?

I'm still with the other guys on zero correlation between each race outcome, so cannot see how the above could work (if that's what you are doing), but curious what your methodology is.

[Derek27]

what your confusing is the various versions I made

initially when it was vanilla it had losing streaks now with - the additions and adjustments it loses very rarely

there is no point quoting the way you did because taking those means they are out of context


My number one point has been and will always be -- people can make these posts not understanding what is going on -- and somehow they think they are the subject expert -- yet there are no threads that I see in the forum that lead people to making one cent.

So maybe just back off quoting things that refer to other points and focus on where this project is right now - at this second

The answer to that is it makes $500 a day on dogs and $500 a day on horses when there are enough races.


So lets you and I take a break Derek - as like I said you are now confusing various points of the project and that is not helpful.

So you've got just one month's experience of making money on the exchange, WOW!

You've admitted you're not very good at explaining yourself (despite working in finance at the highest level) so it's a bit cheeky to suggest that I'm confused.

Of course nobody can understand what's going on because, by your own admission, you're not able to explain and can only keep repeating that you're winning.

You're right in saying there are no threads that lead people to make one cent, and your thread is no different. A forum is for discussion, people make money when they're off the forum.

[Derek27]

you guys are missing out on the one person - who can back up every statement - every result and can actually make winning strategy -- because there seems to be very few people who can do that.

Good Luck to you guys really - you are going to need it.

[Derek27]

Ok, I'll wade in

I'm trying to understand your strategy here. So, you have a selection method that picks x number of runners to dutch in a race (could be any number of runners). That method is ev+, but you are trying to reduce losing runs by doing y, therefore increasing profit.

So "y", is when you are hitting a loser your entries are paused until...what ? Are you using the outcomes of the missed races to predict when to start entering again ? Are you looking for a dip below your SR% and hoping it's going to return to mean ? Or do you have backtest data on the previous max consecutive losses ? Or something else ?

I'm still with the other guys on zero correlation between each race outcome, so cannot see how the above could work (if that's what you are doing), but curious what your methodology is.

If you get a meaningful answer to that I'll quit trading.