I doubt it would be that difficult for Betfair to spot activity like that, one account reaches close to 250k then stops trading. Meanwhile another account opens and starts placing the same style of trades in the same markets as the original account and starts racking up the profits.
They'd spot this a mile off and immediately suspend the account.
Betfair Premium Charge
Most of these P.C avoiding tactics will not work imo, but it's been suggested that if you were to lose your profits by backing or laying the same horse to another exchange you could get away with the charges.
i think Bf will spot this a mile off,
but i guess the real question is if the reason for the P.C is to stop money leaving the pot.
Will they be ok with this ? as it wouldn't be
it would be leaving another exchange.
only time will tell i guess
i think Bf will spot this a mile off,
but i guess the real question is if the reason for the P.C is to stop money leaving the pot.
Will they be ok with this ? as it wouldn't be
it would be leaving another exchange.only time will tell i guess
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I put forward an argument about this not working here:freddy wrote:it's been suggested that if you were to lose your profits by backing or laying the same horse to another exchange you could get away with the charges.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4248
No one has come back with a counter argument though as to why it would work or that they agreed with me which I have to say was rather annoying
You could argue they would be very happy with this. As BF argue this is a curse on their exchange and the reason for the PC so moving the curse to another exchange is surely a good thing from BF's view point, the old rather you than me line.freddy wrote:if the reason for the P.C is to stop money leaving the pot.
Will they be ok with this ? as it wouldn't be
Just read it now and I agree it would def be harder to pull off than it initially sounds.
perhaps it would be easier doing a bit of trading on the slower moving markets like football,
you could then green / red up the bets if the betfair side was look likely to win and leave things alone if it apeard it was going the right way.
still not easy though
perhaps it would be easier doing a bit of trading on the slower moving markets like football,
you could then green / red up the bets if the betfair side was look likely to win and leave things alone if it apeard it was going the right way.
still not easy though
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Interesting article that makes reference to the new PC:
Betfair shares hit record low as analysts fret over lack of underlying growth
Steven Stradbrooke
July 9, 2011
Betfair shares hit a new all-time low Friday, dropping 39.5p (5.5%) to 682p — just 32p over half its £13 IPO price last October. The ‘down’ button was pressed by analysts at UBS, which announced it was cutting its target price from 775p to 660p on concerns over the lack of underlying growth contained in Betfair’s recent full-year results.
Further downward pressure was applied by BancoEspirto Santo de Investimento’s new target of 630p. Analyst Alistair Macdonald also cited lack of growth as the source of Betfair’s problems, and warned that the company’s plan to remedy the situation could backfire. “Betfair’s updated growth strategy is effectively turning into a conventional bookmaker over time, diluting the original exchange proposition. In addition, we are concerned by the possible exchange liquidity impact of increasing commission charges for highest value customers.”
This commission increase is scheduled to kick in July 18. As many as 500 whales whose lifetime profits top £250k and bet in over 1,000 markets will face charges of up to 60% of gross win. Betfair claims to essentially break even on their whale wagers, but that handling their technical demands takes profits away from other sectors. “Betfair believes that the implementation of the adjusted charge will provide the business with fair compensation for the service it provides to those impacted customers, who currently pay a rate of commissions and charges that does not reflect the benefit they gain from the Betfair ecosystem.”
But as Alistair the analyst noted, the Betfair ecosystem is slowly morphing into a conventional bookmaker via the expansion of its fixed-odds offering (‘risk-based products’ in ecosystem-speak). That could pose problematic, not to mention a tad hypocritical, as Betfair has previously argued that its exchange model set it apart from trad bookmakers, and thus it should be taxed more favorably.
The emphasis on fixed-odds wagers reinforces the growing meme surrounding Betfair that they’re last year’s model; bereft of new ideas, like if Apple had followed up the iPod with a portable 8-track tape player. (Look it up, kids.) The meme is perhaps a tad harsh. Undoubtedly, Betfair has a lot of very bright people on its payroll, many of whom would be eminently capable of righting the ship if their hands weren’t so tightly bound.
In 2009, CEO David Yu was asked about a potential IPO, prompting him to caution that “there are pros and cons of being public.” Among other things, Betfair claimed that going public would give the company “the flexibility to react to a developing and consolidating online betting and gaming industry.” Betfair clearly envisioned going on a shopping spree of symbiotic companies, paying with shares instead of cash. But with the stock trading at half its IPO value, the early investors holding the £13 shares won’t stand for a further dilution of their holdings. So new opportunities for growth can’t simply be bought over the counter.
Nor can they be achieved via an expansion into Asia, the planet’s biggest betting market. Among the IPO cons of which Yu warned, the shareholder agreements that preclude Betfair from establishing a presence in Asia loom largest. And with no Asian strategy in the works, the company will likely never achieve the new growth it so desperately craves. David Yu has already deployed his ejection seat, meaning Betfair will have a new CEO by October. Unless he/she arrives holding a secret blueprint for a new iPod, or the money to take the company private again, his/her tenure will likely be a bumpy one.
Source: http://calvinayre.com/2011/07/09/busine ... ecord-low/
Betfair shares hit record low as analysts fret over lack of underlying growth
Steven Stradbrooke
July 9, 2011
Betfair shares hit a new all-time low Friday, dropping 39.5p (5.5%) to 682p — just 32p over half its £13 IPO price last October. The ‘down’ button was pressed by analysts at UBS, which announced it was cutting its target price from 775p to 660p on concerns over the lack of underlying growth contained in Betfair’s recent full-year results.
Further downward pressure was applied by BancoEspirto Santo de Investimento’s new target of 630p. Analyst Alistair Macdonald also cited lack of growth as the source of Betfair’s problems, and warned that the company’s plan to remedy the situation could backfire. “Betfair’s updated growth strategy is effectively turning into a conventional bookmaker over time, diluting the original exchange proposition. In addition, we are concerned by the possible exchange liquidity impact of increasing commission charges for highest value customers.”
This commission increase is scheduled to kick in July 18. As many as 500 whales whose lifetime profits top £250k and bet in over 1,000 markets will face charges of up to 60% of gross win. Betfair claims to essentially break even on their whale wagers, but that handling their technical demands takes profits away from other sectors. “Betfair believes that the implementation of the adjusted charge will provide the business with fair compensation for the service it provides to those impacted customers, who currently pay a rate of commissions and charges that does not reflect the benefit they gain from the Betfair ecosystem.”
But as Alistair the analyst noted, the Betfair ecosystem is slowly morphing into a conventional bookmaker via the expansion of its fixed-odds offering (‘risk-based products’ in ecosystem-speak). That could pose problematic, not to mention a tad hypocritical, as Betfair has previously argued that its exchange model set it apart from trad bookmakers, and thus it should be taxed more favorably.
The emphasis on fixed-odds wagers reinforces the growing meme surrounding Betfair that they’re last year’s model; bereft of new ideas, like if Apple had followed up the iPod with a portable 8-track tape player. (Look it up, kids.) The meme is perhaps a tad harsh. Undoubtedly, Betfair has a lot of very bright people on its payroll, many of whom would be eminently capable of righting the ship if their hands weren’t so tightly bound.
In 2009, CEO David Yu was asked about a potential IPO, prompting him to caution that “there are pros and cons of being public.” Among other things, Betfair claimed that going public would give the company “the flexibility to react to a developing and consolidating online betting and gaming industry.” Betfair clearly envisioned going on a shopping spree of symbiotic companies, paying with shares instead of cash. But with the stock trading at half its IPO value, the early investors holding the £13 shares won’t stand for a further dilution of their holdings. So new opportunities for growth can’t simply be bought over the counter.
Nor can they be achieved via an expansion into Asia, the planet’s biggest betting market. Among the IPO cons of which Yu warned, the shareholder agreements that preclude Betfair from establishing a presence in Asia loom largest. And with no Asian strategy in the works, the company will likely never achieve the new growth it so desperately craves. David Yu has already deployed his ejection seat, meaning Betfair will have a new CEO by October. Unless he/she arrives holding a secret blueprint for a new iPod, or the money to take the company private again, his/her tenure will likely be a bumpy one.
Source: http://calvinayre.com/2011/07/09/busine ... ecord-low/
A post by a guy called Peter Crawford (taken from the Facebook Premium Charge page - http://www.facebook.com/pages/Betfair-P ... 2673473703):
What I will do
I intend to withdraw circa £400,000 by the end of the week.
I will stop betting from monday 18th of July.
I intend to stop betting until Betfair changes its approach on the PC.
As a result, Betfair will lose several £100,000 (per year) in direct PC and a similar amount in direct and implied commission.
I believe my departure will have a non-negligible effect on its own as I am a big market maker on important markets.
Jeff
What I will do
I intend to withdraw circa £400,000 by the end of the week.
I will stop betting from monday 18th of July.
I intend to stop betting until Betfair changes its approach on the PC.
As a result, Betfair will lose several £100,000 (per year) in direct PC and a similar amount in direct and implied commission.
I believe my departure will have a non-negligible effect on its own as I am a big market maker on important markets.
Jeff
Tough talk from these guys but I do wonder how long they can stay away from Betfair. Believe me, winners are not welcome anywhere, Betdaq doesn't want them, the bookies certainly don't want them, and despite all the moaning about Betfair, they are actually 'professional' compared to the current alternatives. In-Play is impossible anywhere but Betfair, and even pre-race trades only have 1/10 the money on Betdaq.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
It will be interesting to here from the guys affected if they still intend to move away. I think they still may decide to stay. People are showing p/l making 1000 to 2000 pounds a day which is still 400 to 800 pound a day with no income tax, an amount unthinkable in many lines of work. Its still a lot to walk away from if betdaq can't immediately give the same returns. I can understand peter Crawford's anger but iim sure he will be back within a month when he realises betfair will live on without him.
Let me declare my position. I am in the 500 higher rate payers.
i think some of you are thinking a bit narrowly here.
) can probably do pretty well in a "normal" job? There is a principle here.
If I remember correctly PW himself was talking last year about reaching a celling on BF, and was looking into long term investments in stocks as a better proposition.
Don't let all the Betfair propaganda about how they can do without the big hitters sway you, and don't assume that the big hitters cannot survive without Betfair. Betfair's accountants may have done the sums about the profit margins the big hitters may or may not give them. But losing £millions of liquidity will effect ALL markets. I don't think they "get it". This has a knock on effect for all users.
They think replacing the 500 with their sportsbook will work? Like to see that In Play on a horse race. Once In Play liquidity goes (and it is falling fast, the amounts matched may hold up. but the back end of the book is thinner than Kate Moss on a diet) This will no doubt push it over the edge.
Befair is a very delicate ecosystem that is now in turmoil. Betfair is (as they say on the BF forum) "finnish".
i think some of you are thinking a bit narrowly here.
This assumes that guys who can make 1k a day on BF are as thick as f*** and will be on the dole without Betfair. Let me tell you my friend, if you can work out how to make a grand a day in the most difficult and competitive trading environment that is a betting exchange, does it not tell you that these people (I count myself amongst themsteven1976 wrote:It will be interesting to here from the guys affected if they still intend to move away. I think they still may decide to stay. People are showing p/l making 1000 to 2000 pounds a day which is still 400 to 800 pound a day with no income tax, an amount unthinkable in many lines of work. Its still a lot to walk away from if betdaq can't immediately give the same returns. I can understand peter Crawford's anger but iim sure he will be back within a month when he realises betfair will live on without him.
) can probably do pretty well in a "normal" job? There is a principle here.If I remember correctly PW himself was talking last year about reaching a celling on BF, and was looking into long term investments in stocks as a better proposition.
Don't let all the Betfair propaganda about how they can do without the big hitters sway you, and don't assume that the big hitters cannot survive without Betfair. Betfair's accountants may have done the sums about the profit margins the big hitters may or may not give them. But losing £millions of liquidity will effect ALL markets. I don't think they "get it". This has a knock on effect for all users.
They think replacing the 500 with their sportsbook will work? Like to see that In Play on a horse race. Once In Play liquidity goes (and it is falling fast, the amounts matched may hold up. but the back end of the book is thinner than Kate Moss on a diet) This will no doubt push it over the edge.
Befair is a very delicate ecosystem that is now in turmoil. Betfair is (as they say on the BF forum) "finnish".
To be in the top 500, you need to have something about you, whether it's high intelligence, dogged determination, focus, self-belief, discipline, or a combination of these and other qualities that would make you a highly effective employee.mugsgame wrote: This assumes that guys who can make 1k a day on BF are as thick as f*** and will be on the dole without Betfair. Let me tell you my friend, if you can work out how to make a grand a day in the most difficult and competitive trading environment that is a betting exchange, does it not tell you that these people (I count myself amongst them
However, whether that translates to success in a traditional career is debatable. Sometimes those qualities will lead to someone senior thinking 'This guy could do great things for our company, and as his manager, he'll make me look good!'. But other managers will think 'This guy's smarter and harder working than me. I'd better make sure that the directors don't find out how good he is, or he'll show me up!'.
Jeff
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I have been of the opinion that Betfair has been seeding the markets for some time. I think XM was there way of testing the market and nothing more. I don't buy the BS they fed us about trying to help punters get matched and/or improving amounts matched. They saw shrewd people hoovering up the slush in the market and having tried to beat them and failed they decided to join them. When they had their "Eureka" moment they decided it was time to increase the PC for those who wished to stay on.mugsgame wrote: They think replacing the 500 with their sportsbook will work? Like to see that In Play on a horse race. Once In Play liquidity goes (and it is falling fast, the amounts matched may hold up. but the back end of the book is thinner than Kate Moss on a diet) This will no doubt push it over the edge.
Befair is a very delicate ecosystem that is now in turmoil. Betfair is (as they say on the BF forum) "finnish".
As you say it is a delicate ecosystem and I don't think the bean counters have accounted for the loss of liquidity from those at the top of the food chain. Yes they intend to use the money from the Sportsbook but they've been doing that anyway IMHO so this is just a bit more propaganda.
If you speak to the man in the street or speak with normal punters who enjoy a flutter many of them have never heard of Betfair. Those that heard of it did try it but left because they find it too complicated. This is a classic failure of the marketing department and is typical of the arrogant musings from Betfair Towers. They just kept saying they were different and this could only work for so long. This arrogance was mistaken for confidence by the sycophants in charge and this led to complacency which has now left them in their current position. That is what happens when you a have "geek" like David Yu in charge who has no customer or marketing skills. His arrogance was astounding and he just assumed that everyone would know how Betfair worked and that would suffice. Well Mr Yu I think you can now see the dividends you are reaping from the seeds that you failed to sow.
Why didn't they take a High Street position? They could have bought a small chain and pushed their position there which would at least have brought more punters into their market and improved their presence. Why not setup a sensible deal with the major bookmakers whereby money could be moved through the Betfair exchange? No, they maintained their arrogant stance and stayed "different". Now they are moving towards being a normal bookmaker so what is "different" about that?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I think they will need to change this video. I didn't even know this existed but go to 1m10s and replace "Betfair welcomes winners" to errrr "Betfair doesn't really want winners anymore!"
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
They have become exactly what they set out against becoming. The coffin will be getting returned to sender!
Isn't it possible they've already done this?JollyGreen wrote:Why not setup a sensible deal with the major bookmakers whereby money could be moved through the Betfair exchange?
A possible reason that it became harder to get orders filled when XM was introduced was because Betfair may have said to the bookies 'If you deal with us directly when you want to lay off your liabilities to balance your book, rather than going through the exchange, we'll give you a better deal'.
Jeff