We all know that competition is good in the long run. At the moment betfair have a monopoly or as good as on the market. In two years I would imagine most will be happy one way or another. Id never even heard of smarkets until last week and although there is a lot of people putting them down or questioning what they do on the forum it wouldn't surprise me if in a couple of years they are doing well as they seem customer orientated approach.
I attended one of your courses and its been the best 400 quid I ever spent. My first 8 months were tough but that was probably my own doing as well as jumpy winter markets. The last 3 months have been pretty special and I'm looking at the pc2 as adding to my "edge" for the next 200k although I would imagine there are a few of the 500s auntys chasing me down. At the moment there is an uncertainty everywhere and by the time I hopefully get to the point that it hurts me, there will be more certainty about the path ahead.
Betfair Premium Charge
What do you envisage will happen?Euler wrote: I've spoken to many customers over the last two weeks as well as Betfair, Betdaq and all the interested parties and groups and my belief is that PC2 will not work in the manner Betfair expect and that is the main reason I think PC3 is already on the cards.
It sounds like you're expecting PC2 to fail. If that happens, isn't it possible that Betfair will do a U turn (possibly under the new Chief Executive)?
Euler wrote:I supply money at risk and take a tiny reward for risking that capital. I shouldn't be punished for that.
Couldn't it be argued that Betfair aren't punishing you, but are doing what all businesses do, and taking decisions that are designed to maximise their profits?
Betfair's talk about 'fairness' is empty IMHO. If they were being honest, they would admit that they just want to maximise their profits. As a believer in the free market, I can't criticise them for that.
That said, if I owned Betfair shares I'd be selling them, as I think Betfair are taking too big a risk. They'll come out of this either massive winners or massive losers, but unless your back's against the wall and you're running out of options, it doesn't usually make sense to bet the farm on a single roll of the dice...
Jeff
Glad to hear you are doing well.
There is still a big opportunity on Betfair for a lot of people, but less so for me now, so that's bound to shape my approach. Our team will be here to support whatever our customers want to do. Hopefully for a few years yet!
There is still a big opportunity on Betfair for a lot of people, but less so for me now, so that's bound to shape my approach. Our team will be here to support whatever our customers want to do. Hopefully for a few years yet!
True, although as John Maynard Keynes pointed out, in the long run we are all dead!steven1976 wrote:We all know that competition is good in the long run.
I hope you're right, although I'm far from convinced. A couple of days ago, some forum members addressed to Jason Trost, Smarket's CEO, some concerns about the fact that self-matching scratching of trades isn't allowed in Smarkets. Jason hasn't replied (nor has he responded to a question I asked him a few days ago on Facebook about the matter). That doesn't inspire confidence...steven1976 wrote:Id never even heard of smarkets until last week and although there is a lot of people putting them down or questioning what they do on the forum it wouldn't surprise me if in a couple of years they are doing well as they seem customer orientated approach.
IMHO, one of the things that separates successful traders from most people is that they can cope with uncertainty.steven1976 wrote:At the moment there is an uncertainty everywhere and by the time I hopefully get to the point that it hurts me, there will be more certainty about the path ahead.
Jeff
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Guys I really think we should stop referring to it as PC version 2 as it creates the impression this is the first change Betfair have made to the PC.
We have already had PC version 2. That is what we are currently on.
Version 1 was what we currently have but also gave you a £1,000 allowance each year. Unsurprisingly they ditched that after one year!
We have already had PC version 2. That is what we are currently on.
Version 1 was what we currently have but also gave you a £1,000 allowance each year. Unsurprisingly they ditched that after one year!
Do you still think there's some chance Betfair will see the light and back down, perhaps agreeing to reduce the charge to the more reasonable maximum level I suggested (35%) ?
Depends what Betfair were aiming to do. If they were actually trying to get rid of the big players, they won't change, but if they genuinely thought they could increase their profits this way and it doesn't work, perhaps they will back down?
Depends what Betfair were aiming to do. If they were actually trying to get rid of the big players, they won't change, but if they genuinely thought they could increase their profits this way and it doesn't work, perhaps they will back down?
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I think it is too late for them to back down, the damage has been done already before it has even actually come into force. People have long memories.
Yes, some of us have memories long enough to know what betting on horses was like before Betfair...
The increase in PC is obviously a real drag.
But I'm as worried by the ever increasing likelihood of a betting right being granted to racing, and the prospect of layers being taxed as bookmakers.
Then I think there really will be something to complain about.
Like, no Betfair, no exchanges..
The increase in PC is obviously a real drag.
But I'm as worried by the ever increasing likelihood of a betting right being granted to racing, and the prospect of layers being taxed as bookmakers.
Then I think there really will be something to complain about.
Like, no Betfair, no exchanges..
It's a possibility, but I doubt there's much momentum behind such a move. It would probably be the end of Betfair, and I don't think the government want to bring down a company employing 1,200 people in the UK (not to mention the tax revenue it already generates).
When the betting levy was debated in parliament, most of the handful of MPs who turned up only did so in order to talk about how great their local racetrack was!
BTW, you may be interested in the following (from a 2004 parliamentary report - http://www.parliament.the-stationery-of ... 63we82.htm):
'According to recent information from betfair.com, only around 0.7 per cent of its customers made a profit of over £15,000 over the last year. Given approximately 200,000 users worldwide, that equates to 1,400 people, many of which will be outside the UK. Of those remaining some are likely to have won through chance, and are unlikely to win over a longer period of time, so the number who are subject to UK taxation laws, and likely to win enough money to live on is likely to be in the mid hundreds.
[...]
Given such a low number of people who are likely to consistently make money through betting, the possibility of those people moving to a more favourable tax regime, or using tax avoidance measures, and the potential negative fiscal impact of reverting to any tax on customers, my judgment is that although in principle a small number of gamblers should be subject to income tax, in practice it is unlikely to be economically worthwhile for the government, given that contributions are already made indirectly via gross profits taxation'.
Jeff
When the betting levy was debated in parliament, most of the handful of MPs who turned up only did so in order to talk about how great their local racetrack was!
BTW, you may be interested in the following (from a 2004 parliamentary report - http://www.parliament.the-stationery-of ... 63we82.htm):
'According to recent information from betfair.com, only around 0.7 per cent of its customers made a profit of over £15,000 over the last year. Given approximately 200,000 users worldwide, that equates to 1,400 people, many of which will be outside the UK. Of those remaining some are likely to have won through chance, and are unlikely to win over a longer period of time, so the number who are subject to UK taxation laws, and likely to win enough money to live on is likely to be in the mid hundreds.
[...]
Given such a low number of people who are likely to consistently make money through betting, the possibility of those people moving to a more favourable tax regime, or using tax avoidance measures, and the potential negative fiscal impact of reverting to any tax on customers, my judgment is that although in principle a small number of gamblers should be subject to income tax, in practice it is unlikely to be economically worthwhile for the government, given that contributions are already made indirectly via gross profits taxation'.
Jeff
payuppal wrote: But I'm as worried by the ever increasing likelihood of a betting right being granted to racing, and the prospect of layers being taxed as bookmakers.
I might have missed it in the discussion up to now, but what I find especially peculiar is that Betfair would announce such a significant policy change just as their CEO is on the way out the door... Perhaps there is a chance, albeit only a small one, that the new guy that replaces Yu will convince the Betfair Board of Directors that Yu left them pursuing a suicidal policy...
Betfair, given their lack of bricks-and-mortar presence, still has the negotiating leverage to simply move their operations completely offshore, so I agree, I don't think there is too great of a threat to the existence of exchanges from the regulatory authorities. The much greater threat seems to come from the poor strategic management of the top 2 exchange betting companies.It's a possibility, but I doubt there's much momentum behind such a move. It would probably be the end of Betfair, and I don't think the government want to bring down a company employing 1,200 people in the UK (not to mention the tax revenue it already generates).
Nomadic -
Possibly, but that assumes that the board might choose to appoint someone who's said at interview that they're against the new PC, which seems unlikely IMHO...
Jeff
Possibly, but that assumes that the board might choose to appoint someone who's said at interview that they're against the new PC, which seems unlikely IMHO...
Jeff
nomadic wrote:Perhaps there is a chance, albeit only a small one, that the new guy that replaces Yu will convince the Betfair Board of Directors that Yu left them pursuing a suicidal policy...