lets move to Betdaq

[xitian]

Hi Jeff,

I did mention that there were 15 races last Monday and 14 today

I can post average per race as well if you like. I think average can be skewed if there are a lot of races vs a day with few races though. I guess you need to look both at the total and average.

Just for you as race averages :

Code: Select all

	BF	BF_BD	BD
11/07/2011	471,897	1,309,362	103,330
18/07/2011	301,017	1,190,998	194,175
% ratio	64%	91%	188%

[Iron]

I did mention that there were 15 races last Monday and 14 today

Thanks Xitian - So you did!

Jeff

[Innertube]

Am I reading that right, Betfair has fallen 35% but Betdaq has doubled?

[xitian]

Yes, that's what the numbers are roughly saying. Of course it depends on the method of calculation as if you use the Betdaq liability method Betfair has gone from 1,309,362 to 1,190,998 per race.

This is also only a tiny sample of races though. We can't really draw too many conclusions after one afternoon. I would say there's definitely a change, however how significant and how long it will last is another question.

[xitian]

Final numbers for today if anyone's interested.

Again, for all UK/IRE horse races, 10 mins pre-off of scheduled time only.

1st col Betfair using Betfair method.
2nd col Betfair using Betdaq method.
3rd col Betdaq using Betdaq method.

Total matched across all races:

Code: Select all

BF	BF_BD	BD
11/07/2011	14,139,818	40,814,893	3,793,391
18/07/2011	8,903,992	32,531,864	5,538,041
% ratio	63%	80%	146%

As average per race:

Code: Select all

	BF	BF_BD	BD
11/07/2011	403,995	1,166,140	108,383
18/07/2011	269,818	985,814	167,819
% ratio	67%	85%	155%

Based on today's races Betdaq are now turning over 17% of Betfair's total, compared with last Monday when it was 9%. Again, I need to stress this is only based on one day's data!

Here's the race breakdown:

Code: Select all

Ayr 18th Jul	14:30:00	380,845	1,397,058	320,377	23%
Ayr 18th Jul	15:00:00	295,230	1,431,042	228,786	16%
Ayr 18th Jul	15:30:00	421,534	1,540,465	291,060	19%
Ayr 18th Jul	16:00:00	444,371	1,376,842	197,816	14%
Ayr 18th Jul	16:30:00	179,526	714,544	110,038	15%
Ayr 18th Jul	17:00:00	235,501	1,035,424	216,456	21%
Ayr 18th Jul	17:30:00	245,451	877,563	174,233	20%
Wind 18th Jul	18:10:00	247,592	842,284	185,244	22%
Wind 18th Jul	18:40:00	192,178	1,081,729	227,573	21%
Wind 18th Jul	19:10:00	237,139	1,213,780	229,991	19%
Wind 18th Jul	19:40:00	269,738	1,106,952	224,478	20%
Wind 18th Jul	20:10:00	401,234	1,752,295	219,835	13%
Wind 18th Jul	20:40:00	265,197	1,113,555	228,884	21%
Bev 18th Jul	18:30:00	314,097	796,215	108,842	14%
Bev 18th Jul	19:00:00	309,962	903,054	114,169	13%
Bev 18th Jul	19:30:00	231,138	753,275	105,631	14%
Bev 18th Jul	20:00:00	272,889	944,973	146,471	16%
Bev 18th Jul	20:30:00	262,444	714,630	117,814	16%
Bev 18th Jul	21:00:00	307,370	1,076,135	184,094	17%
Yarm 18th Jul	14:15:00	359,781	1,062,712	189,161	18%
Yarm 18th Jul	14:45:00	314,813	1,221,782	177,875	15%
Yarm 18th Jul	15:15:00	423,547	1,180,303	190,941	16%
Yarm 18th Jul	15:45:00	309,677	1,621,008	209,487	13%
Yarm 18th Jul	16:15:00	323,252	1,578,459	286,862	18%
Yarm 18th Jul	16:45:00	146,457	502,548	49,903	10%
Yarm 18th Jul	17:15:00	134,247	324,510	75,450	23%
Ballin 18th Jul	17:50:00	285,788	542,871	81,604	15%
Ballin 18th Jul	18:20:00	83,429	343,159	63,889	19%
Ballin 18th Jul	18:50:00	138,370	385,784	82,319	21%
Ballin 18th Jul	19:20:00	224,858	1,007,470	152,122	15%
Ballin 18th Jul	19:50:00	138,318	580,457	79,777	14%
Ballin 18th Jul	20:20:00	187,910	616,048	119,793	19%
Ballin 18th Jul	20:50:00	320,108	892,940	147,066	16%

The percentage at the end is the ratio of Betdaq vs Betfair. I'm going to update the table I posted for last Monday in that old post to include the percentages. You can really see the volume change spread out through the races when you compare.

[andyfuller]

Many thanks for taking the time to do this!

Something occurred to me when trading today and thinking about these figures. Most people trade and bet on the front of the market.

Not many people are 'bothered' by the back end of the market.

However, the back end of the market is likely an area where Betfair's figures are boosted when converted to the Betdaq style because BF attracts a lot more money here than BD will do.

So would it be possible to get a comparison of the front end only of the market comparing Betfair and Betdaq. Say the front 3 in the market based on say SP.

I think this would be an interesting comparison to make if anyone can do it.....

[xitian]

Andy, I think you're right, and you can almost already tell from the numbers I posted earlier.

This also explains what I've been scratching my head about. According to Betfair calculation methods (ie. stake) they've dropped to 63% of normal levels. According to Betdaq calculation methods (ie. liability) they've dropped only by 80%.

This fits exactly the situation that you're suggesting: that it could be the lower priced runners that are losing volume. The higher priced runners might be more or less what they would be before which skews the numbers when using the Betdaq method.

I don't think there's a very easy way to calculate the volume for the favourite 3 runners as I don't store the SP. I could possibly pick out the average matched price over the last 10 mins and use that though. Unfortunately I wouldn't have that data for Betdaq as they don't publish matched amounts by runner on the API as far as I know...

[andyfuller]

Glad it makes sense to you and hopefully others.

I would say 99% of my pre race trading is done on the front three runners and I would suspect this is correct for most people for the simple fact that we only have three ladders open most of the time, sometimes only one.

As such manual traders are unlikely to be putting much money on away from these selections.

So if people have pulled out of the market and switched to Betdaq the front of the market is going to be impacted considerably more in terms of a drop in amounts matched than happens at the back end of the market where you get far less traders. As such the amounts I would suspect matched on these runners has probably remained fairly constant. But under the Betdaq method of calculation represent a lot of the money and skew the figures and don't really show the true changes in amounts being traded.

If you follow me....

Perhaps Peter Webb has some way of looking at this?

I think it would be well worth a trial run of collecting the data, do Betdaq have any historical data they can release? Peter collects a lot of Betfair data it seems from his postings so I would suspect he already has the necessary data on the Betfair side of things but not the Betdaq.

It would be great to get a comparison on this going I feel but I just don't have the Excel knowledge to achieve anything like this or I would do it myself.

Peter? Anyone?

[Euler]

We have asked Betdaq if they can compile historical data for us. We will keep you in touch.

[beepbeep20]

When looking at the comparisons of yesterdays Betfair matched totals to the previous Mondays on Betfair one thing that crossed my mind is that there were no (in the afternoon when I was around, not sure about the evening) very short priced favourites yesterday.

And those shorties (1.4-1.15), or lack of them, could distort the comparison as they always have so much matched on them even if it's in a narrow price band.

In a long winded way I suppose I'm trying to say if there were a couple of real shorties on the 11th and as there were none on the 18th, the Betfair matched would be down, even if nobody had defected.

I'm not questioning anyone's figures about Betdaq vrs Betfair (which are interesting, encouraging and useful) just a thought that crossed my mind.

[johnboy]

Hi

The big drawback for me using Betdaq is if using smaller stakes I understand they do not allow same facility for greening up, when using Bet Angel, as allowed by Betfair.I therefore used to frequently get stuck with a profit on one horse which I could not then spread by taking advantage of the green up due to their minimum stake applying.

Johnboy

[RafterP]

I've just joined Betdaq this morning and I have to say I was impressed with how easy it was compared to Betfair!

With BF you almost need to supply a DNA sample but with Betdaq it was done in 2 minutes!

I'm gonna continue trading with BF for now but i'll have 2 copies of Betangel running, one for each exchange so it will be interesting to see how they compare.

[xitian]

Stats for today's UK/IRE racing, 10 mins pre-off.

As a total.

Code: Select all

	BF	BF_BD	BD	
12/07/2011	17,006,322	53,259,295	4,565,514	9%
19/07/2011	14,207,334	37,830,923	5,917,488	16%
% ratio	84%	71%	130%	

As average per race. (Note that there were about 10 more races last week, so this average for Betfair looks to be up).

Code: Select all

	BF	BF_BD	BD	
12/07/2011	386,507	1,210,439	103,762	9%
19/07/2011	430,525	1,146,392	179,318	16%
% ratio	111%	95%	173%	

Race breakdown.

Code: Select all

Muss 19th Jul	14:30:00	401,071	1,055,167	135,763	13%
Muss 19th Jul	15:00:00	661,467	1,794,776	264,700	15%
Muss 19th Jul	15:30:00	317,639	863,477	142,433	16%
Muss 19th Jul	16:00:00	453,220	1,852,914	221,464	12%
Muss 19th Jul	16:30:00	605,331	1,191,925	167,848	14%
Muss 19th Jul	17:00:00	659,280	1,185,709	192,538	16%
Muss 19th Jul	17:30:00	558,224	1,241,166	166,906	13%
Yarm 19th Jul	14:15:00	478,952	869,185	162,600	19%
Yarm 19th Jul	14:45:00	611,728	2,162,764	447,835	21%
Yarm 19th Jul	15:15:00	476,400	1,615,551	271,927	17%
Yarm 19th Jul	15:45:00	434,021	1,601,663	190,805	12%
Yarm 19th Jul	16:15:00	792,602	1,353,385	149,407	11%
Yarm 19th Jul	16:45:00	788,620	2,256,893	388,342	17%
Yarm 19th Jul	17:15:00	638,279	1,478,183	254,752	17%
Sthl 19th Jul	18:00:00	302,845	1,340,996	189,516	14%
Sthl 19th Jul	18:30:00	470,273	827,715	125,937	15%
Sthl 19th Jul	19:00:00	233,095	892,095	114,092	13%
Sthl 19th Jul	19:30:00	456,249	1,348,723	191,880	14%
Sthl 19th Jul	20:00:00	403,454	882,043	101,163	11%
Sthl 19th Jul	20:30:00	336,220	1,318,082	204,558	16%
Sthl 19th Jul	21:00:00	353,025	1,445,175	174,598	12%
Ballin 19th Jul	17:20:00	166,382	405,474	60,258	15%
Ballin 19th Jul	18:20:00	230,605	715,032	151,782	21%
Ballin 19th Jul	18:50:00	263,383	474,379	91,228	19%
Ballin 19th Jul	19:20:00	165,398	526,993	126,536	24%
Ballin 19th Jul	19:50:00	110,115	628,948	125,815	20%
Ballin 19th Jul	20:20:00	131,937	657,221	143,903	22%
Ballin 19th Jul	20:50:00	314,690	795,242	105,627	13%
Bang 19th Jul	18:10:00	466,640	795,702	175,431	22%
Bang 19th Jul	18:40:00	340,836	667,965	82,353	12%
Bang 19th Jul	19:10:00	317,627	766,643	134,411	18%
Bang 19th Jul	19:40:00	305,131	728,224	120,342	17%
Bang 19th Jul	20:10:00	459,941	875,530	106,620	12%
Bang 19th Jul	20:40:00	502,655	1,215,987	234,118	19%

I think that the key statistic here is that market share for Betdaq (9% -> 16%) has held up today, and similar to the change yesterday compared to last week.

[xitian]

Decided to do some analysis based on Andy's suggestion of breaking down the difference of volume by runner price.

Here's the original table using all runners, total matched. First col is Betfair method (ie. stake), second col is Betdaq method (ie. liability).

Code: Select all

12/07/2011	17,006,322	53,259,295
19/07/2011	14,207,334	37,830,923
diff	-2,798,988	-15,428,372

Here's a table which only includes favourite 3 runners based on average matched price in last 10 mins.

Code: Select all

12/07/2011	13,927,296	27,459,310
19/07/2011	11,035,784	19,539,235
diff	-2,891,511	-7,920,075

Looking at the stakes matched, it looks like the decline from last week's number is entirely down to the top 3 runners (in fact according to that, the non-top 3 matched more stake this week).

Not sure we can glean too much from it though as there were different numbers of runners, races, and different priced favourites between the days.

[jimrobo]

Definitely looks like where the main difference is though