Automation to implement a staking plan

[curious_bet]

Hi All.

Complete noob of a question but I'm struggling with it so was wondering if one of you wonderful people could help.

I want to set up an automation that will apply a staking plan, for example, increment my stake on the next market by a fixed amount e.g. bet on a nominated selection for fist market at £5, bet on next market +1 (i.e £6), and then next market at +1 (i.e.£7) etc. It could be another staking plan such a fibonacchi etc.

Is there a way of doing this or am I just crazy? Actually don't answer the last bit .

Many thanks in advance.

CB

[Dallas]

You can test your P/L and if you won or lost in the last race so the short answer to your question is yes it can be done (see link below to a ready-made file to store your daily P/L)

It will require a bit of work with Stored Values to work out what stake you want to place with your next bet based on your P/L and or win status from the previous race

Running Daily P/L Total
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=25455

[curious_bet]

Thanks Dallas

[ShaunWhite]

You're new so I'll be kind, it's a terrible idea for a whole host of reasons. The first of which is that if you do have an edge then in order to allow room to increase your stake your average bet size will be lower than it could be which reduces your return. You're also falling foul of the Gambler's Fallacy and throwing more money at a given risk/return situation simply because the previous race went against you.

If you're an Excel user then get or create some market data (a few thousand markets) and try your staking plans with that. Eg level staking, liability staking and all these other things. You'll soon see why fancy staking ideas aren't part of standard BA functionality. And with 000s of users and a product that's been around for ages if it helped you can guarentee it would be standard so that should be informative. It wouldn't be as Dallas says, "a bit of work".

I hope that was gentle enough, we all had to learn. Just bear in mind that Dallas will always help you do what you ask for, but it's not appropriate for him to comment on how sensible it is.

[jamesedwards]

To echo Shaun's excellent advice; in the long run an incremental staking plan will not improve your profitability, especially if you have no edge. Eventually you will be killed off by an unlikely long run of losers. Also on an Exchange the higher your stake gets the lower your achieved value. It will be difficult to discern any difference when you move from £2 to £3 to £4 etc, but when you get up to hundreds then thousands it can become very difficult to even get matched at all.

[decomez6]

I think BA. should give the tool a chance .

Labelled: WARNING

REASON :
one could have an edge that requires bet variations and alterations not necessarily martingale like increaments.

I don’t see why BA users should be denied such a useful tool , for the sins of ‘self harming ‘ bettors/traders.

P & L - SA ,options and conditions should be an integral part of BA …including Historical running totals .

[jamesedwards]

I think BA. should give the tool a chance .

Labelled: WARNING

REASON :
one could have an edge that requires bet variations and alterations not necessarily martingale like increaments.

I don’t see why BA users should be denied such a useful tool , for the sins of ‘self harming ‘ bettors/traders.

P & L - SA ,options and conditions should be an integral part of BA …including Historical running totals .

You can do all this using stored values.

[decomez6]

You can do all this using stored values.

I normally use the market reports from guardian , . I find them more reliable in isolating the winning selection from the rest nd also calculate the running totals using excel .
What I struggle with is directly isolating one particular SV ( P & L ) after the market is closed without using the excel route.
I’ve tried Dallas bot , which will give a P & L after the market is closed and a winner declared , but I am struggling with capturing and isolating SV to use it in the next calculations .
It’s like the signal is lost when the market is closed awaiting the declaration of the winner.
May be there is a way of time stamping the P&L SV. and only use it when the winner is declared , then isolate it from the rest of all SVs , without using excel ?

[ShaunWhite]

I think BA. should give the tool a chance .

I'll leave you to explain to Peter that he's missing a trick.

I see the appeal with chasing losses (to give this it's proper name) but increasing stakes is exactly one of the things that operators are looking for as a sign you might have a problem. I'm sure you haven't got a problem but it's certainly not a positive indicator. It might even be a feature that can't be implemented as it's seen as encouraging irresponsible gambling?

I know you could argue its boosting profit rather than chasing losses but I'm not seeing many winners asking for it, just people trying to stop losing.

Don't get yourself restricted.......
https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 22-10144-4

[decomez6]

I think BA. should give the tool a chance .

I'll leave you to explain to Peter that he's missing a trick.

Don't get yourself restricted.......
https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 22-10144-4

chasing losses is a trick that most traders/ punters have used in one way shape or form . Albeit Some more aggressive than others .
There are countless staking methods that do not involve bursting your Bank . Some actually help to monitor the likelihood of an event and then adjust the staking method depending on the odds available v/s the ‘Real odds ‘( adjusted to certain parameters).. this should in return help preserve your Bank .
The staking method will have an inbuilt self evaluating mechanism that allows you to stake by liability ( back and lay) , level stake and also a calculated increamental / decreamental staking plan .
I can see how the regulatory authorities use the data to identify problem gamblers and use the findings to restrict them and eventually help them regain control of their finances .
But I can also argue that , a regulatory body with no tools to identify the differences between problem gamblers and complex gamblers , then such an institution is not fit for purpose.
Some complex gamblers might come across as problem gamblers if you only take a sample of their gambling calendar and forget to check at thier whole/ complete gambling strategy. And also it will not be obvious not unless they disclose it to you .(edge )
For a fee ofcourse
Because the staking plan is an edge within the edge.

[Derek27]

I'm waiting for the day when somebody asks how to obtain your running P/L or balance without mentioning the Martingale, Fibonacci, increasing stakes, loss recovery, etc. The anti-Martingale brigade would be buggered then and have to give the poster the benefit of the doubt.

[ShaunWhite]

chasing losses is a trick that most traders/ punters have used in one way shape or form . Albeit Some more aggressive than others .

And where are they now?

Because the staking plan is an edge within the edge.

A staking plan presupposes you view your bets in chronological order. That's just the random way the 10,000 races a year came up. Remember every race is an independent event so any specific sequence is therefore irrelevant. You either accept market independence or you don't. It's not possible to advocate staking plans without saying the ghost of the last result is haunting the present.

You mentioned actual vs available odds but that's not a staking plan. That's a legitimate interpretation of risk/reward, such as Kelly staking.

It's all in good spirit though decomez , a staking plan won't harm you anymore than it'll help, so if it helps your psych then that's a +ve for you.