How quickly an edge can disappear

[deestar]

I'm always amazed (probably shouldn't be) how you can tick along very nicely and then something changes and it all goes awry virtually overnight.

I have had a very nice bot trading AUS greyhound for the last 3/4 years. Triggered into an average of about 40 to 50 markets per day and made a consistent margin

Over the last week it has gone to virtually zero. Margin halved and markets down to under 10 a day. What has happened? Not sure, but Betdaq have started offering AUS greyhound markets. so I can only assume they are cross pollinating from Betfair and it has taken whatever opportunity I was exploiting.

Hard to stomach but life goes on.

[ShaunWhite]

If its not losing or not losing much then leave it ticking along with reduced stakes. I have an aus dog bot that's been running for 4yrs and several times it's suddenly flatlined for 2 or 3 weeks before coming back just as quickly, sometimes stronger. It's a complicated ecosystem, people come and go all the time.

In my experience and it's confirmed by others, strategy death is more usually a long slow decline rather than vanishing overnight.

..I can't easily find an example but this one was 9 days, iro 3,500 aus dogs. Nothing changed my end.

Screenshot_3.jpg

[deestar]

Thanks very good advice as usual.
I certainly have no plans to change anything just yet - that's something I've been guilty of in the past. Making changes too quickly only to go through about 10 iterations and end up back where I started.

Unfortunately this decline has coincided with a general decline in all my bots over the last 12 to 18 months. From making a healthy living to scratching around for chump change in the space of a year. Throw in the joy of HR PC (although I'm not paying much as not making much) and a general cost of living squeeze and the CV has been well and truly dusted off - a real job beckons.

Maybe a period of letting them all run either into the ground or into an uplift without the stress of having to pay the bills is what's needed.

[Euler]

I've always been a bit suspicious of sudden shifts.

The reason being that a long time ago loads of people started complain that their strategies had completely failed overnight. Not one or two, but many people. I asked Betfair if they had changed anything, but they denied any changes.

Eventually it transpired that in fact they had just switched on cross matching. So I've been really suspicious when things change overnight.

Strategies tend to decay over time, not suddenly stop.

[ShaunWhite]

Unfortunately this decline has coincided with a general decline in all my bots over the last 12 to 18 months.

There's a lot of people saying that they're running to stay still. I do see light at the end of the tunnel though. In hard times pros just crack on while leisure punters hold back, that swings the natural balance. Hopefully better times ahead will mean more fun money around and we'll be alright again. That said, sophistication in the hardcore pro community feels like its on an exponential rise so it'll be a matter of staying current rather than resting on your laurels.

[wearthefoxhat]

I'm always amazed (probably shouldn't be) how you can tick along very nicely and then something changes and it all goes awry virtually overnight.

I have had a very nice bot trading AUS greyhound for the last 3/4 years. Triggered into an average of about 40 to 50 markets per day and made a consistent margin

Over the last week it has gone to virtually zero. Margin halved and markets down to under 10 a day. What has happened? Not sure, but Betdaq have started offering AUS greyhound markets. so I can only assume they are cross pollinating from Betfair and it has taken whatever opportunity I was exploiting.

Hard to stomach but life goes on.

I had a UK dog bot that ebbed and flowed, then sunk. The whole market isn't that big, others got smarter, I stood still. Sometimes you have to take the rap. However, have been making inroads into the more conventional value approach and specialising on certain tracks with a bias.

I find it's evident the Racing Post/Timeform analysts do quite well considering they have to tip up every market, but fall into the same pattern when reviewing races that can mislead the public who may follow them blindly.

Keep the faith, as the trading journey isn't an easy one.

trading.png