I've been thinking on what has been said about matching the market to the strategy and the tests I have been doing on the automation for this particular (L2B inplay) strategy. I've also seen on other threads that it is important to tweak these 'stock' automations for our own use.
I'm considering tweaks, based on these observations:
- In my tests, with the horses I am choosing, based on InformRacing data I am getting a high percentage correct. That was giving a nice profit
- That profit would have been wiped out by a factor of 10 by one horse that layed high and went on to win.
- I added a Green rule based on a negative profit, but that often triggered too quickly resulting in an overall loss across several races
- I decreased the value of the loss trigger from -£3 to -£10, but that still triggered frequently on horses that would have been better left and resulted in an overall loss
1. Reducing the number of ticks above the lay that the back bet is made for.
This will reduce my profit per race, but I think it may produce more races that are profitable. As I have noticed that on almost all of my selections the odds to go up, but not by 10 ticks, the horse's odds can then reduce for a bit, triggering the greening, but then go back up and eventually the horses losses. Had the initial back bet been closer to the lay I would have been in profit.
2. Reducing the 10 Second Delay on Start
I notice almost all of the horses I'm choosing seem to have lower odds in the first 10 seconds of the race and my lay bet is going in after they have gone up a few ticks.
3. Adding a condition to test for large changes in odds before making the lay bet
This is to rule out sudden large increase in odds due to the horse messing about in the stalls. That is essentially the reason for my first wipe out. The horses' odds drifted massively because it suddenly looked bad, a lay bet went in somewhere like 10 ticks above where it had been just pre race, the back bet aorund 20 ticks. After 10 seconds the odds stabilised again and bounced up and down, and then the horse steamed home to win. Had the lay been at the pre race odds I would have made a small profit, as it was it would have been a massive loss (thankfully I was in practice mode!!)
I'd appreciate everyone's thoughts. I've never paid any attention to horse racing before so this is all very new to me.
Thank you in advance.
