Lay horses that trip or fall, i need help please

[Derek27]

Tell that to everyone who backs every race at 1.01, thousands cue there and u can never beat the cue, so ita betfair using that tactic making money, so they are lazy aswell i guess.

You mean everyone who lays at 1.01?

I wouldn't second guess why people join that queue, it can be for many different strategies other than simply laying every horse. I was specifically referring to your approach of backing at 1.01 or laying a faller. Even if you get it right the margins are tiny and there are much better and more profitable trading strategies.

[fatboyeno]

Derek

You still haven't answered my second question and I think you only inadvertently answered my first. If you're laying at over 100, how many times in a 1000 do you think you'll get it wrong? Have you even considered whether the profits will be greater than the losses or are you assuming you'll stop doing what all other humans do and not make any mistakes?

My mistake came from to much info and buttons to small on screen on laptop, and mouse to sslow.

Switching to touch screen tablet with much less coloums works fine.

Yes i might lay the wrong horse at the track in the future, but i can red out asap for small loss.

Iv spoken to tpd and been recomended a different software, ill give their forum a try

You still won't answer me and you wonder why you're not getting any help!

So, you lay a horse at 100 for £10 giving a near £1000 liability. It's the wrong horse. It's now trading at 10. No matter, you red out by backing it for £100 making a £90 loss and wiping out your last 9 lays. How many days does it take to catch up? A lot of hard work just to make £10!

Mate your way off, obviously you have never tried it live at the track so i cant be too harsh.

Iv done about 150 races live, with 50 of them centre course at my local track.

Only lost 2x out of 150, and they were manual errors i made, not getting horse number wrong, i just clicked the wrong one rushing back into my car to place bet.

Now i use touch screen tablet, its way easier.
So 150 wins at varying odds, sometimes i lay a front runner ar 4.0 or 6.0 for my whole bank each time.

Ill let you decide if it works, hope that answerd the question? If not then rephrase it please

[fatboyeno]

Sure if you cant help thats cool, but its worth a ask to fast track my learning.

You'll never learn anything if you don't engage and ignore questions!

I started trying then people telling me i shouldn't bet on fallers as its not moral, or to use the special "lay fallen horses button...

All i want is help to trial a automated bot to have some fun,

But its all good i will work it out with time, after i make a killing on the grand national

[fatboyeno]

Tell that to everyone who backs every race at 1.01, thousands cue there and u can never beat the cue, so ita betfair using that tactic making money, so they are lazy aswell i guess.

You mean everyone who lays at 1.01?

I wouldn't second guess why people join that queue, it can be for many different strategies other than simply laying every horse. I was specifically referring to your approach of backing at 1.01 or laying a faller. Even if you get it right the margins are tiny and there are much better and more profitable trading strategies.

The idea is not to lay at specific odds,
Lay WHOEVER falls off, sometimes the leader falls last hurdle, he might have been below 2.0 and if you lay with all ur bank, you wont get it all matched due to available liquidity, but you will get best odds.
Set your lay button to 0 and betfair will give you best available, dont try take best price itl run thru you

[Derek27]

Derek

You still haven't answered my second question and I think you only inadvertently answered my first. If you're laying at over 100, how many times in a 1000 do you think you'll get it wrong? Have you even considered whether the profits will be greater than the losses or are you assuming you'll stop doing what all other humans do and not make any mistakes?

My mistake came from to much info and buttons to small on screen on laptop, and mouse to sslow.

Switching to touch screen tablet with much less coloums works fine.

Yes i might lay the wrong horse at the track in the future, but i can red out asap for small loss.

Iv spoken to tpd and been recomended a different software, ill give their forum a try

You still won't answer me and you wonder why you're not getting any help!

So, you lay a horse at 100 for £10 giving a near £1000 liability. It's the wrong horse. It's now trading at 10. No matter, you red out by backing it for £100 making a £90 loss and wiping out your last 9 lays. How many days does it take to catch up? A lot of hard work just to make £10!

Mate your way off, obviously you have never tried it live at the track so i cant be too harsh.

Iv done about 150 races live, with 50 of them centre course at my local track.

Only lost 2x out of 150, and they were manual errors i made, not getting horse number wrong, i just clicked the wrong one rushing back into my car to place bet.

Now i use touch screen tablet, its way easier.
So 150 wins at varying odds, sometimes i lay a front runner ar 4.0 or 6.0 for my whole bank each time.

Ill let you decide if it works, hope that answerd the question? If not then rephrase it please

You've answered my question, well done - I did have to ask several times though!

What you've done at the track is completely irrelevant because your question is about automating it.

You got two losers but you sometimes/each time (?) you lay for your whole bank. Does this mean you had to replace your whole bank?

If you automate the process the manual errors may be a thing of the past, but don't you think they may just be replaced by automated errors? Remember what James said, or perhaps you just ignore what you don't want to hear.

TPD is pretty accurate and data is only about 0.2 sec delayed so an automation would likely beat even tracksiders to lay a fallen horse. But be aware that the trackers can fall off or stop working making it look like the horse has stopped. Only happens occasionally but assuming you'll be laying at 1000 it only takes one of these to go on and win and you're in the poor house.

[Derek27]

Sure if you cant help thats cool, but its worth a ask to fast track my learning.

You'll never learn anything if you don't engage and ignore questions!

I started trying then people telling me i shouldn't bet on fallers as its not moral, or to use the special "lay fallen horses button...

All i want is help to trial a automated bot to have some fun,

But its all good i will work it out with time, after i make a killing on the grand national

I've no problems with the morals of it. I've been hounded on this forum myself for backing horses that won when Betfair failed to suspend the market.

[fatboyeno]

Time to share 1 of your much better stratergies with me? If anything this has been fun right

[Derek27]

Tell that to everyone who backs every race at 1.01, thousands cue there and u can never beat the cue, so ita betfair using that tactic making money, so they are lazy aswell i guess.

You mean everyone who lays at 1.01?

I wouldn't second guess why people join that queue, it can be for many different strategies other than simply laying every horse. I was specifically referring to your approach of backing at 1.01 or laying a faller. Even if you get it right the margins are tiny and there are much better and more profitable trading strategies.

The idea is not to lay at specific odds,
Lay WHOEVER falls off, sometimes the leader falls last hurdle, he might have been below 2.0 and if you lay with all ur bank, you wont get it all matched due to available liquidity, but you will get best odds.
Set your lay button to 0 and betfair will give you best available, dont try take best price itl run thru you

What do you mean "set your lay button to 0"? If the faller was trading at 4 what price do you ask for?

The best price you can lay at is the lowest price, so if when you place a lay bet you're specifying the highest price you're willing to take.

[Derek27]

Time to share 1 of your much better stratergies with me? If anything this has been fun right

I'm primarily a footy trader but at the moment I'm swing-trading the racing, which as you probably know involves profiting from price movements. When I'm manually trading I don't have a fixed if A, B and C happens do this; if D, E and F happens do that. I just go by instinct and judgement from past experience.

[fatboyeno]

Time to share 1 of your much better stratergies with me? If anything this has been fun right

I'm primarily a footy trader but at the moment I'm swing-trading the racing, which as you probably know involves profiting from price movements. When I'm manually trading I don't have a fixed if A, B and C happens do this; if D, E and F happens do that. I just go by instinct and judgement from past experience.

Sorry in struggling explaining it,

Lets say you thought a horse was about to win and his odds were 1.3,
If your back button always set at 1.01, itl give you a good chance to match if price shortened to 1.2.
Betangel and betfair will always give you best odds available.

Also sometimes you can get matched higher sometimes that 1.3, no jdea why, mabye crossmatching or something but in the same example i have randomly matched at 5.5 when odds were 1.3

[Derek27]

Time to share 1 of your much better stratergies with me? If anything this has been fun right

I'm primarily a footy trader but at the moment I'm swing-trading the racing, which as you probably know involves profiting from price movements. When I'm manually trading I don't have a fixed if A, B and C happens do this; if D, E and F happens do that. I just go by instinct and judgement from past experience.

Sorry in struggling explaining it,

Lets say you thought a horse was about to win and his odds were 1.3,
If your back button always set at 1.01, itl give you a good chance to match if price shortened to 1.2.
Betangel and betfair will always give you best odds available.

Also sometimes you can get matched higher sometimes that 1.3, no jdea why, mabye crossmatching or something but in the same example i have randomly matched at 5.5 when odds were 1.3

I know what you mean, I was confused because you've switched from laying to backing.

If a horse is leading, trading at 3.0 and falls three fences out, his price is going to move from 3.0 to 1000, probably in less than 500ms. If you're going to lay it for your entire bank, roughly what price to you try to catch it at?

[ShaunWhite]

Also sometimes you can get matched higher sometimes that 1.3, no jdea why,

in-running the prices are moving faster than you can see or respond to them so sometimes you get a better price. But asking for 1.01 hoping to just get anything will mean you're getting lousy value most of the time. Taking prices is a punting mentality anyway, it's people offering prices who make the money.

[Kai]

Isn't the irony here that someone is looking for a risk-free strategy that can and should never lose in theory, but in reality ends up risking far more than the average person.

[Derek27]

Isn't the irony here that someone is looking for a risk-free strategy that can and should never lose in theory, but in reality ends up risking far more than the average person.

The bigger irony is that a method that should never lose has lost twice, but they were just mistakes that won't happen again.

I've often wondered why there are so many ex-military people on here, but perhaps the similarity is that you only have one life to lose on the battlefield and you only have one bank to lose on the exchange.

[Kai]

Isn't the irony here that someone is looking for a risk-free strategy that can and should never lose in theory, but in reality ends up risking far more than the average person.

The bigger irony is that a method that should never lose has lost twice, but they were just mistakes that won't happen again.

Wasn't it just last week that someone got it horribly wrong, someone who clearly hasn't invested in a bigger tablet with bigger buttons? viewtopic.php?p=325631#p325631

Didn't Man Utd just yesterday fail to win after comfortably trading at 1.01, while Seville was being layed at 1000? viewtopic.php?p=326263#p326263

These things seem to happen more frequently than the odds suggest.