Gold

Long, short, Bitcoin, forex - Plenty of alternate market disuccsion.
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superfrank
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andyfuller wrote:Yeah, I wasn't trying to argue it was significant, I was just trying to get a better understanding of why things happen. I was expecting Gold to have risen and when they said it was falling I couldn't figure out the logic behind why and they weren't saying either other than people were switching to cash which didn't explain the logic behind.

I find it all fascinating trying to piece together the jigsaw puzzle, same as with my Betfair trading. Rather than seeing what is happening I want to know why it is happening :)
The financial world is a fascinating one, but in a way horse racing markets are more pure - yeah they can be manipulated for short periods of time, but at the end of the day there's a race to decide who's right or wrong!

Financial markets would be much better served without the interference of governments (apart from consistent and sensible regulation).

If truly free markets had started in say 2007, gold would have hit $10,000+ oz, and some countries and big companies would have gone bust, but things would have reset and sorted themselves out and we'd all be in a better place now. The problem is that TPTB have no time for markets that don't go in the direction they want them to, so they try to manipulate them (with predictable results).

If I had a back position on the 2nd fav and it started to drift as others were supported I could keep throwing money at it to keep the price down for a while - ultimately it's a futile strategy, but unfortunately one that western governments are pursuing.

Ps. Glad you're in the Financial Markets forum - sometimes it feels like I'm just having a conversation with Jeff! (not that that's a bad thing!).
Last edited by superfrank on Fri Aug 05, 2011 1:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
Iron
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I'm sure these guys have a minimal amount of knowledge about the markets they trade, but it really is very limited. For example, you wouldn't want your entire portfolio to be comprised of correlated instruments, or to trade in markets where the liquidity is low relative to the size of your bet. But a pure trend follower would never think 'I'll use this algorithm for the FTSE as it's been a bit quiet of late', or 'I'll steer clear of EUR/USD, as it's about to hit resistance'.

As for their more general knowlege about markets, they believe that prices are unpredictable, that prices sometimes over-react, and, erm, that's about it... :)

As regards Betfair bots, would you choose which markets to use a bot on, and customise the settings for each market? Or are there bots which you can just trust to load up each market 10 minutes before the off, and do its stuff, without any human intervention?

Jeff
Iron
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I agree.

And to take the analogy further, if keeping the wolf from the door of Greece, Ireland and Portugal is like keeping the price down on a 2nd favourite at Roscommon, saving Spain and Italy would be more like trying to manipulate the odds of a Champions League final, ie pretty futile, and you'll be lucky if you don't lose your shirt! :lol:

Jeff
superfrank wrote: If I had a back position on the 2nd fav and it started to drift as others were supported I could keep throwing money at it to keep the price down for a while - ultimately it's a futile strategy, but unfortunately one that western governments are pursuing.
Iron
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Bank of New York Mellon charges depositors - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... itors.html

Bank of New York Mellon, which safeguards a wide array of assets for customers, said that it will be levying a fee of 0.13pc on balances in response to a "sudden, significant" surge in deposits into accounts that don't pay any interest.

This supports the idea that the drop in gold may have been because people were taking their money out of financial instruments.

Jeff
rubysglory
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Ferru123 wrote:This supports the idea that the drop in gold may have been because people were taking their money out of financial instruments.
Jeff
Think your probably spot on Jeff. I suspect that many investors (private and institutional) have needed to sell gold to increase overall portfolio liquidity whilst meeting margin calls.

rg
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superfrank
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Gold breaks $1700.

Gold is like Frankel. People doubted whether he was a superstar, but it turned out he was!
Last edited by superfrank on Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Euler
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Where is the best place to get an up to date daily spot chart for gold?
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superfrank
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Euler wrote:Where is the best place to get an up to date daily spot chart for gold?
I use my futures application and also IG http://www.igindex.co.uk.
Iron
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Euler wrote:Where is the best place to get an up to date daily spot chart for gold?
You could use Metatrader: http://gcitrading.com/software-download.htm

As it doesn't use the London timezone with this provider, the day highs and lows might be different to those that you see on other charts.

Jeff
nomadic
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andyfuller wrote:Can some one explain why Gold is currently falling despite all the selling and fear? They keep saying there is a rush to cash (Bonds) but why don't people want to hold Gold?
Hi Andy - I had CNBC on in the background the other day, and I recall there was a guest on saying that when the market is down, it logically triggers a lot of margin calls. And at some point after a margin call has been triggered (or has been triggered at a certain dire level), their broker basically has free reign to sell whatever other assets they have in their account in order to cover that margin call... and for some reason, gold is an asset that is a "favourite" target of these guys in such instances. I didn't catch his reasoning as to why gold in particular is a favourite target however...
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superfrank
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Great quote:
“It is like the butcher that doesn’t eat his own sausages (paper money) because he knows what is in it,” said Groenewegen. “Therefore, central banks buy the ultimate currency that has intrinsic/real value: gold and silver.”
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/20 ... er-jump-3/
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superfrank
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superfrank wrote:Gold breaks $1700.

Gold is like Frankel. People doubted whether he was a superstar, but it turned out he was!
Make that $1800.

People that say that gold is in a bubble are deluding themselves. Gold is real money and has been a store of wealth for the last 6000 years. Something cannot be in a bubble without leverage, and there is no leverage in the gold price.

My humble advice is to buy silver. At the moment silver is treated as an industrial raw material, which it is, but it's also a precious metal that cannot be printed and sooner or later will take on an investment grade that people will take very seriously.

"Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves." - Norm Franz
Last edited by superfrank on Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Iron
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There's talk that France is having financial problems, so I'm not surprised.

I don't know if France might need a bailout, but if they do, then I think we can safely say that the world economy will enter a new phase, and Lehmann will look like a cakewalk...

Jeff
superfrank wrote:
Make that $1800.
andyfuller
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superfrank wrote:My humble advice is to buy silver.
My humble advice is to buy a Shotgun, a pack of Alsatians, bottles of water and tins of food.

You can keep your silver :lol:
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superfrank
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Yeah guns, ammo and tinned food is next on the list!
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