Bookmaking - the problem where prices drift up :0(

[Archery1969]

If you want to back or lay the field then best time to start doing this is as soon as a market forms on Betfair. Keep offering bad value odds.

There is other software which does this very well and constantly takes into account your runner/market exposure and then adjusts your odds/amounts to get a completed matched book.

I am sure you could do it with BA but might take some work with stored variables.

But be warned, there are some sophisticated bots doing this already so it will turn into a fight with you and other bots having to lower their market margin to get a completed matched book.

It still works though as got a couple of friends doing it with a custom written bot. But they have had to lower expected profit margin per market as over time more bots entered the market.

When a market forms the back / lay odds are very poor. Essentially what you do is constantly nip in front with slightly better odds (still poor though) and amounts.

[ShaunWhite]

Generally it is easier to get matches pre race and if the race starts before all bets are matched it is easier to make a little profit or break even rather than have a life changing meltdown

It doesn't matter if they're all matched or not aside from having a greater variance, what's important is the ones that are matched are +EV. The 'trading' perspectve of needing to have your return level across the card often comes at the expense of taking poor prices especially if you're taking unmatched offers through to in-running.

[ShaunWhite]

Essentially what you do is constantly nip in front with slightly better odds (still poor though) and amounts.

Exactly, anything you can get matched at better than the mid price at any time will over a large sample be +EV. The idea that prices are always 'correct' no matter how they moved before or move after is something people often struggle to comprehend but it's why perpetual offering makes money.

[Archery1969]

Essentially what you do is constantly nip in front with slightly better odds (still poor though) and amounts.

Exactly, anything you can get matched at better than the mid price at any time will over a large sample be +EV. The idea that prices are always 'correct' no matter how they moved before or move after is something people often struggle to comprehend but it's why perpetual offering makes money.

+ 1

[Trader724]

+0.5

[ShaunWhite]

+0.5

I think your +0.5 tallies with ChatGPT's opinion.
In summary, the idea presented in the quote has some merit, but successfully implementing such a strategy requires skill, a good understanding of betting markets, and the ability to identify and exploit inefficiencies.

[Trader724]

It would have been disturbing not to be so.