Spread Betting

[superfrank]

I don't dispute that you have an edge; I'm just trying to understand which market inefficiencies you are exploiting to create your edge (as it might help me develop one of my own!).

Jeff

Please don't misunderstand me, I'm no expert - I've only been trading for 2 years and most of that has been on the nags. I consider myself a novice who still does lots of stupid things, but I'm determined to improve.

One thing I do is to oppose moves at times of uncertainty (e.g. in the earlier example, and also when markets have moved a decent way and may have over-extended). I also believe that it's important not to be afraid to enter trades unconditionally, i.e. not waiting for confirmation signals and all that old bolux!, but just hitting a price. My trade of the day here...

[andyfuller]

Jeff do you actually trade financials using your trending ideas?

I plan once the summer racing is over to start looking at stocks etc and was thinking we could set up a few threads where people can discuss actual trades, unlike Betfair there is no harm in people posting their ideas as the market is huge so would be interested if others would be up for discussing things like that.

At the moment when I see talk about trends I always see charts posted after the event showing a nice trend which makes it look simple but much like people talking about a trade on BF after the event, actually talking about it before would be far more interesting, to me any way.

A while back I looked at a few stocks and made some predictions with my brother in law - I then got busy with the summer racing so going to try and dig out the email and see what I predicted to what actually happened.

For any one interested this is Jimmakos's recent post about Weight Watchers. He used to trade on BF and was one of the early guys to blog about it, I remember reading his blog about when he planned to switch from Dial Up internet to Broadband, that shows how long he has been around

http://www.tradinggraphs.com/stocks/new ... alysis-wtw

[Iron]

I also believe that it's important not to be afraid to enter trades unconditionally, i.e. not waiting for confirmation signals and all that old bolux!, but just hitting a price.

I agree.

People come up with all sorts of weird and wonderful theories about when to enter (and exit, for that matter), but most of it is rubbish IMHO.

All you are trying to do (with trend and counter trend trading anyway), is to exploit market over-exuberance.

My trade of the day here...

Well done. Where did you set your stop?

BTW, are you using Bill Williams's alligator?

Jeff

[Iron]

Not right now - to cut a long story short, my focus at present is on Betfair.

But hopefully that will chance soon...

Jeff

Jeff do you actually trade financials using your trending ideas?

[andyfuller]

Not right now - to cut a long story short, my focus at present is on Betfair.

But hopefully that will chance soon...

Have you ever, if so to what extent? If you did why did you stop?

Obviously don't answer if you don't want.

[hgodden]

I'd totally forgotten about Jimmakos, his blog has loads of great content and is a friendly guy, though some of his racing trading videos looked a bit wild! Surprised he's cut down the poker and is looking at stocks more now.

I think it would be a great idea to have an area where we can look at actual live trades, like you say unlike BF the liquidity is so high in financials it wouldnt really matter

[superfrank]

Where did you set your stop?

Around 5880 I think - I like to give those kind of trades a chance.

BTW, are you using Bill Williams's alligator?

No, or at least not intentionally - I've forgotten what it was.

Divergence is the thing I plan to study to get a feel for which way to trade based on more than just my intuition.

[Iron]

I did last year - I actually got quite into it.

I stopped it because I was losing money overall. But I think I now know where I was going wrong (I had to unlearn lots of the nonsense I'd filled my head with!), and I'll give it another go at some point.

Jeff

Have you ever, if so to what extent? If you did why did you stop?

Obviously don't answer if you don't want.

[superfrank]

I think it would be a great idea to have an area where we can look at actual live trades, like you say unlike BF the liquidity is so high in financials it wouldnt really matter

The great thing about financials is that people are more than happy to share certain edges - even code for automated stuff.

If you thing about it, it makes perfect sense - the more people follow it, the more likely it is to come true!

[Iron]

I'd be wary of divergence-based trading (particularly if you're going counter-trend) - I speak as someone who's had his fingers burned!

But you might find this link interesting: http://www.babypips.com/school/divergen ... 4Qodbm-h6A

Jeff

Divergence is the thing I plan to study to get a feel for which way to trade based on more than just my intuition.

[RafterP]

Interesting to see whoever compiled the graph seems to be using Fibonacci. They may as well use astrology to predict the market.

Great thread by the way, very interesting

[Iron]

You may be right - I don't use Fibonacci myself, but I know that many successful traders do.

I suspect that they're successful despite using Fibonacci rather than because of it, but I can't be sure.

It's possible that collective human buying and selling behaviour can be modelled mathematically to some degree of accuracy...

Jeff

Interesting to see whoever compiled the graph seems to be using Fibonacci. They may as well use astrology to predict the market.

[RafterP]

I suspect that they're successful despite using Fibonacci rather than because of it, but I can't be sure.

Yeah I think thats about right. Its the cabbage soup diet of the stockmarket world!

[superfrank]

This kind of cr@p (Thirsk 18:30) is what p1sses me off about trading the nags...

[superfrank]

I use Fibonacci numbers for charts just because others do. I don't think it makes any difference (not to my trading anyway).