US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Archery1969
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jun 14, 2023 1:10 am
If Trump becomes president while in prison, can he pardon himself and get out of jail?
In theory there are three ways Trump could be pardoned: by a state executive, by the current president or by himself. But the first and last ways there are somewhat complex in law. But not impossible.

Given the precedent set by President Gerald Ford’s pardon of a disgraced former president, Richard Nixon, there will be considerable pressure on Biden to do so. And given the nearly ubiquitous attacks on Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment decision, it’s fair to assume that such pardon pressure would come from both the right and the left.

Trump potentially faces multiple court cases but to be found guilty each one needs to be a unanimous decision by all jurors. He only needs 1 in each case to find him not guilty and basically he wins.

Sending a former president to federal prison would be a first in US history, split an already split/polorairsed country and more than likely lead to killings by loyal Trump gun toting militia units around the country. Again, Biden would be under enormous pressure to pardon him if prison looks likely.

You could argue on a similar footing that Berlusconi and Sarkozy should have gone to prison for some of their crimes but in reality, while not pardoned they did their detention at home wearing a dog collar.
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Archangel
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The Golden Ticket!
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Naffman
Posts: 5911
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I67wW0Oh25Y

Nice to have a host (especially from Fox) that pushes back on Trump, if he's the nominee he's losing Texas.
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:53 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I67wW0Oh25Y

Nice to have a host (especially from Fox) that pushes back on Trump, if he's the nominee he's losing Texas.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: That was funnier than any of the comedies I watched last night!

So he keeps his underpants in the same box as top-secret national security documents and he didn't have time for a whole year to go through them. Too busy playing golf I suppose. :lol:
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Naffman
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:55 am
Naffman wrote:
Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:53 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I67wW0Oh25Y

Nice to have a host (especially from Fox) that pushes back on Trump, if he's the nominee he's losing Texas.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: That was funnier than any of the comedies I watched last night!

So he keeps his underpants in the same box as top-secret national security documents and he didn't have time for a whole year to go through them. Too busy playing golf I suppose. :lol:
You can tell he's flustered, he can't seem to remember which lie is the right one.
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Derek27
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Hunter Biden expected to reach an agreement with prosecutors over unpaid taxes and illegal possession of a firearm.

Trump seems to think it's far more serious than hiding top-secret nuclear defence plans in your underpants and lying to the Ministry of Justice about them, but his day in court is scheduled for 14th August this year. :D
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Naffman
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Trump trial set for August, obviously will be delayed but I reckon it’ll be before the end of the year.

Trumps price continues to firm, back to 1.56 despite clearly dropping in the polls, it’s clearly MAGA money (hell, I used to be MAGA money :lol:) influencing it as Biden is twice as big for nominee than when he announced!
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Naffman
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Reports are 11th December could be the date, so a good Christmas present for us Derek :lol:
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:27 am
Reports are 11th December could be the date, so a good Christmas present for us Derek :lol:
It would be a good birthday present for my brother if he hated Trump as much as I do. :)
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Derek27
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An audio recording of Trump in July 2021 has emerged with Trump talking about plans to attack Iran, with two members of staff. He admitted that the documents were not declassified but denied to the MoJ that he had any knowledge of those documents being in his possession.

He's toast. :D
arbitrage16
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Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

What or who do people believe to be a relatively reliable bell weather for Republican politics?
greenmark
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:28 pm
What or who do people believe to be a relatively reliable bell weather for Republican politics?
Trump seems to be teflon coated. DeSantis is his only competition. Scott? Are you kidding me? A black Republican President? Not a chance.
So we are going to see an unpleasant media battle between Trump and DeSantis.
I don't see anyone else.
Trump is your bellwether. If Trump is criminalised DeSantis will romp it. Otherwise the orange combover could well be back in.
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Naffman
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Francis Suarez asks 'what's an uyghur?' - why are people like that even running :lol:
arbitrage16
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greenmark wrote:
Tue Jun 27, 2023 6:05 pm
arbitrage16 wrote:
Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:28 pm
What or who do people believe to be a relatively reliable bell weather for Republican politics?
Trump seems to be teflon coated. DeSantis is his only competition. Scott? Are you kidding me? A black Republican President? Not a chance.
So we are going to see an unpleasant media battle between Trump and DeSantis.
I don't see anyone else.
Trump is your bellwether. If Trump is criminalised DeSantis will romp it. Otherwise the orange combover could well be back in.
Interesting, thanks. Considering a position that goes something like: back Trump in the outright market, back DeSantis in the nomination market.

If we really are in a two horse race for the nomination, I think that covers both sides. Open to feedback on the thesis.
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Naffman
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Thu Jun 29, 2023 9:29 am
greenmark wrote:
Tue Jun 27, 2023 6:05 pm
arbitrage16 wrote:
Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:28 pm
What or who do people believe to be a relatively reliable bell weather for Republican politics?
Trump seems to be teflon coated. DeSantis is his only competition. Scott? Are you kidding me? A black Republican President? Not a chance.
So we are going to see an unpleasant media battle between Trump and DeSantis.
I don't see anyone else.
Trump is your bellwether. If Trump is criminalised DeSantis will romp it. Otherwise the orange combover could well be back in.
Interesting, thanks. Considering a position that goes something like: back Trump in the outright market, back DeSantis in the nomination market.

If we really are in a two horse race for the nomination, I think that covers both sides. Open to feedback on the thesis.
I'm quite heavy on DeSantis to be nominee and the other bet I'd be having if I hadn't already is Biden to win, unbelievable he's pretty much 2/1 on the Exchange as he should be heavy odds on vs Trump and about 50/50 against DeSantis
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