Today's Greyhounds

[wearthefoxhat]

These last few months I've been experimenting with a variety of relatively simple approaches, eg changes in selection traded volume in last minute or so before the off, and also LTP changes (eg steamers) in the same or similar time period. And placing back bets accordingly.

The results have been variable but generally too -ve for my liking.

I have thought about using conditions to stop when either profit or loss for the day has reached a predefined level.

I haven't gone into the mechanics of each dogs history I'm afraid !

I have had previous experience as a runner, and was also inspired by https://youtu.be/sDZfLNcS-bc

Problem with posting this video is that it could alert the staff to anyone continously glancing at their phone before placing a bet. The same approach he used on the greyhounds can be achieved on horse racing, especially if your homework is done before going in.

You would need to be in an area with plenty of bookies in the high street (move around) and not leave your wallet or phone on the side whilst placing a bet. (rooky mistake there CB)

Fair play with the idea for charity though.

The use of Tech to help you make a decision in real time, happens in the poker world too. At the live tables, some players refer to their phones to look at solver charts for the best play depending on their position, chip size and starting hand.

[Trader724]

Not A Fan Of Caan. He says a lot and says nothing at the same time

He's addressing stupid people and not stupid people at the same time

[iggypop37]

Caan Berry aside, people are making regular money in the shops by exploiting shortening prices and/or trading volume changes on the dogs.

As we know that Betfair is more efficient than high street bookmakers, I thought that the opportunity was there using automation tools to :

- Identify shortening prices promptly

- automate prompt staking on these

So that you might not get all of the value in the shops but hopefully a chunk of it !

Sone of us where we live don't have the opportunity to pop to the local hills or Betfred. !

[wearthefoxhat]

Caan Berry aside, people are making regular money in the shops by exploiting shortening prices and/or trading volume changes on the dogs.

As we know that Betfair is more efficient than high street bookmakers, I thought that the opportunity was there using automation tools to :

- Identify shortening prices promptly

- automate prompt staking on these

So that you might not get all of the value in the shops but hopefully a chunk of it !

Sone of us where we live don't have the opportunity to pop to the local hills or Betfred. !

Reckon you need some sort of alert/vibration on the phone, synced with betfair, when the price shortens. A quick look at the phone info, and place the bet if the price is available.

Maybe some kind of betting syndicate, ready to pounce in different parts of the country, loitering in the betting shop, each receiving an alert from HQ, (you). The bet placer compared the odds on offer and places the bet. Of course you'll need trustworthy people, otherwise they'll just declare the losers and keep the winners. Didn't say it was gonna be easy,

[iggypop37]

delete

[iggypop37]

Reckon you need some sort of alert/vibration on the phone, synced with betfair, when the price shortens. A quick look at the phone info, and place the bet if the price is available.

Maybe some kind of betting syndicate, ready to pounce in different parts of the country, loitering in the betting shop, each receiving an alert from HQ, (you). The bet placer compared the odds on offer and places the bet. Of course you'll need trustworthy people, otherwise they'll just declare the losers and keep the winners. Didn't say it was gonna be easy,

i used to work for a betting syndicate in the past that did that or very similar.

I was never privy to the precise trap selection criteria though but with the benefit of hindsight I can make a good guess.

very good too for reverse/combo forecasts when more than one horse was shortening.

Ive now got betfair syncing with my phone so can use BA as an indicator as and when Im back in the UK shops.

[ShaunWhite]

Reckon you need some sort of alert/vibration on the phone, synced with betfair, when the price shortens. A quick look at the phone info, and place the bet if the price is available.

Because placing bets with bookies is so slow and labour intensive, it's more usual to do it the other way around especially as Betfair prices swing so much so fast. Betfair prices are more accurate when you view them en mass, but there's far more variance (and value) on Betfair than anywhere else.
https://www.lsports.eu/oddservice/?gcli ... PEQAvD_BwE

[iggypop37]

Because placing bets with bookies is so slow and labour intensive, it's more usual to do it the other way around especially as Betfair prices swing so much so fast. Betfair prices are more accurate when you view them en mass, but there's far more variance (and value) on Betfair than anywhere else.
https://www.lsports.eu/oddservice/?gcli ... PEQAvD_BwE

Agreed.

This is why you need to get friendly with shop staff so they will bang the bets through the till asap for you .

Alternative is use the sports betting terminals in the shops

[Archery1969]

Its very interesting to see which prices shorten based on Volume, Forecast Rank, Split Rank and Time Rank.

Volume and/or Split and/or Time can be a bit of a red herrring.

However, depending on the grade this race and the grade the dog ran in last time plus Forecast rank is showing some meaningful patterns.

[ShaunWhite]

Are you splitting your data into training and test data? The correlation between the two will give you the likelihood it will stand up before putting some money down.

[Archery1969]

Are you splitting your data into training and test data? The correlation between the two will give you the likelihood it will stand up before putting some money down.

Don't have the knowledge or cleaver enough to go anywhere near that kind of stuff.

At the moment all I looking at is:

Which dogs shorten in price before the off or win the race based on Parameters being: Grade type, Traded volume, Forecast Rank, Split Rank and Time Rank

A1 to A3 - Fast
A4 to A6 - Medium
A7 to A11 - Slow

Very early days but my small sample size (< 4000 races) suggests that dogs running in A7 to A11 grades do not shorten based on the parameters above and outsiders have a much better chance and therefore may offer value. I dont know yet but I suspect dogs running A1 to A3 probably follow the parameters above much more.

But, like I said, dont have a big enough sample size yet.

All fun though.

[ShaunWhite]

Are you splitting your data into training and test data? The correlation between the two will give you the likelihood it will stand up before putting some money down.

Don't have the knowledge or cleaver enough to go anywhere near that kind of stuff..

It's just chopping your data into 2 chunks, work on one, then apply the same conditions to the 2nd set. Then eyeball the two sets of results. You can get all fancy Dan with p-values or whatever but imo your eyes are good enough to see if set 2 looks sort of like set 1. Without it the back fitting spectre is always in the back of your mind. I just don't like spending money without checking . The 2nd 'unseen' set is the nearest you get to testing the future which is also unseen.

[Archery1969]

Are you splitting your data into training and test data? The correlation between the two will give you the likelihood it will stand up before putting some money down.

Don't have the knowledge or cleaver enough to go anywhere near that kind of stuff..

It's just chopping your data into 2 chunks, work on one, then apply the same conditions to the 2nd set. Then eyeball the two sets of results. You can get all fancy Dan with p-values or whatever but imo your eyes are good enough to see if set 2 looks sort of like set 1. Without it the back fitting spectre is always in the back of your mind. I just don't like spending money without checking . The 2nd 'unseen' set is the nearest you get to testing the future which is also unseen.

Thanks Shaun.

[StellaBot]

Having seen so much weird and wonderful stuff on here
Excel , charts etc

Does anyone have
a spreadsheet of any greyhounds performance
say for last 3 month prior to race
including time grade trap and comments?

you mean like this

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Thanks for reply Memphis and Archery

I have worked out how to get greyhounds historical form as Memphis showed above.
Can that be scraped?
Is there a way to get the comments for each race of above in excel format from timeform or others
eg slow away, led etc?

Edit
soz for late reply, as about week ago

[MemphisFlash]

raw data scraped and prepared in power query before it goes into one of my
one click screens

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