Outcome, every bet runs and settles as a separate win or loss that get totalled. But it could be the case that when you trade (pre or in-running) and average £1 a race, your back bets are earning £3 and the lays are costing you £2. ie better at reading steamers than drifers. You're making money but not as much as it could/should be. Just seeing +£1 isn't telling you that. With enough bet history you can break it down by maybe time before start or price ranges.stueytrader wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 1:07 pmAgree with all that Shaun.
Though there is one small clarification issue - which is what is the definition of value. That seems like it can be defined in terms of what the outcome of the event is (i.e. win or loss of a selection), or value in relation to other prices - that latter one is more of a trading value definition of course.
3am and can't sleep...
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10584
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
-
stueytrader
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Yes, good explanation - I think that is almost exactly what happened to change my approach to balancing trades vs keeping positions as bets. I realised I was trying to trade drifters, but so often they did not drift (so a losing trade), yet the outcomes would have been far more successful - i.e. the horses were losing the races, so would have given me profits as straight lays.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 1:59 pmOutcome, every bet runs and settles as a separate win or loss that get totalled. But it could be the case that when you trade (pre or in-running) and average £1 a race, your back bets are earning £3 and the lays are costing you £2. ie better at reading steamers than drifers. You're making money but not as much as it could/should be. Just seeing +£1 isn't telling you that. With enough bet history you can break it down by maybe time before start or price ranges.stueytrader wrote: ↑Wed Jul 12, 2023 1:07 pmAgree with all that Shaun.
Though there is one small clarification issue - which is what is the definition of value. That seems like it can be defined in terms of what the outcome of the event is (i.e. win or loss of a selection), or value in relation to other prices - that latter one is more of a trading value definition of course.
-
stueytrader
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
It's also a bit like the famous quote that:
'The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent'
That applies far more to a trading position and strategy, than it does to someone who holds their position to the outcome.
'The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent'
That applies far more to a trading position and strategy, than it does to someone who holds their position to the outcome.