Today's Horse Racing

[firlandsfarm]

The game is fairly simple – consistently take value on low risk for long enough and you'll be ahead.

I'm with Xtrader on this. People say "take value" without defining 'value' other than the ambiguous undefined definition that odds are greater than probability but then fail to define how you know when they are! They also say "spot market movements" but they don't clearly define what these movements/positions are nor how to identify them. To me the ladder is just a few lists of random numbers moving in random directions and I say that as a maths/statistics person. I don't see any patterns. So I don't trade and remain in awe of those that do/can and make a living from it.

I'm happy with my proven statistical models. The Wisdom of Crowds (the theory not the forum member! ) says they will continue to behave in the same/similar patterns with slow drifting changes that need to be accounted for.

[jamesedwards]

How's it going guys,
I'm missing BSP data for the 13:15 (Goodwood 2nd Aug : 1m Grp 1 Arab Race).
Looks like the market didn't turn in-play?

Could anyone confirm or provide BSP data on this if it's easy for you.

This race was deliberately not set by BF to go in-play.

Because of that I'm afraid I didn't capture SPs either.

[jamesedwards]

People say "take value" without defining 'value' other than the ambiguous undefined definition that odds are greater than probability but then fail to define how you know when they are!

The consensus seems to be that comparing achieved price to Betfair SP is a reasonable stab at identifying achieved value. That would seem sensible because if you can consistently beat SP then you can turn that into guaranteed profit by exiting all your trades at SP at the off.

[firlandsfarm]

The consensus seems to be that comparing achieved price to Betfair SP is a reasonable stab at identifying achieved value. That would seem sensible because if you can consistently beat SP then you can turn that into guaranteed profit by exiting all your trades at SP at the off.

I agree James but you don't know what BSP is until after you should have placed the bet that beats it unless the Bf predictions of BSP are accurate which is something I have not monitored.

[xtrader16]

To me the ladder is just a few lists of random numbers moving in random directions and I say that as a maths/statistics person. I don't see any patterns. So I don't trade and remain in awe of those that do/can and make a living from it.

Believe me when I tell you the ladders are not random and prescribe to unseen rules. The people who make a living at this know the patterns or they create them. Take your pick. I am 99% of the way there. The 1% problem is me. You are all wrong on the 'value' front as well.

[Euler]

How's it going guys,
I'm missing BSP data for the 13:15 (Goodwood 2nd Aug : 1m Grp 1 Arab Race).
Looks like the market didn't turn in-play?

Could anyone confirm or provide BSP data on this if it's easy for you.

I never trade Arabian races as the liquidity is too low.

If you remind me later, I'll have a look and see if my data collection caught the SP.

[arbitrage16]

To me the ladder is just a few lists of random numbers moving in random directions and I say that as a maths/statistics person. I don't see any patterns. So I don't trade and remain in awe of those that do/can and make a living from it.

Believe me when I tell you the ladders are not random and prescribe to unseen rules. The people who make a living at this know the patterns or they create them. Take your pick. I am 99% of the way there. The 1% problem is me. You are all wrong on the 'value' front as well.

You are correct, the ladders are not random and move in a consistent and clear pattern in every market.

If you are a manual trader then you are grossly mistaking that ratio. I'd say understanding how the market moves is about 10% of my edge - it's the easy part. The rest is knowing yourself well enough to execute consistently and so take advantage of that knowledge.

That's the hard bit. But at least you know where you need to focus your efforts.

[arbitrage16]

And I agree, value is relative, especially when trading in-play.

[xtrader16]

If you are a manual trader then you are grossly mistaking that ratio. I'd say understanding how the market moves is about 10% of my edge - it's the easy part. The rest is knowing yourself well enough to execute consistently and so take advantage of that knowledge.

You are right sort of. I'd say it was more 50/50. Years of experience will always be needed to predict price movement high/low, Reversals, scalping ticks but all the tools are there for you to use but if you don't know plan A, Plan B is useless.

[firlandsfarm]

Guys, please, I didn't say the ladders and/or odds movements are random ... I said TO ME they are random. I see no patterns in them whatsoever,

And as for BSP I didn't question the value issue, I simply said that if you use BSP to judge value then you cannot use it pre-off because you don't know what it is until the off. I also invited comment re the accuracy of Bf's projected BSP to see if that could be of help.

And lastly I never said you can't make a living from trading, quite the opposite actually, I said I was in awe of those that do.

[xtrader16]

Got off to a bad start today. The £58 loss was an error in running and should have been a £25 profit. (Heavy Finger on a Sensitive Mouse ) fuming at that one. Changed my set up around on my screen and recovered well. There were a lot more oppo's but I wanted to control my risk as there is always tomorrow. Can push this much further.

[xtrader16]

Guys, please, I didn't say the ladders and/or odds movements are random ... I said TO ME they are random. I see no patterns in them whatsoever,

And as for BSP I didn't question the value issue, I simply said that if you use BSP to judge value then you cannot use it pre-off because you don't know what it is until the off. I also invited comment re the accuracy of Bf's projected BSP to see if that could be of help.

And lastly I never said you can't make a living from trading, quite the opposite actually, I said I was in awe of those that do.

It's awful when you feel people have misrepresented what you said. Soz.

[eightbo]

People say "take value" without defining 'value' other than the ambiguous undefined definition that odds are greater than probability but then fail to define how you know when they are!

1. Define a strategy
2. Deploy your strategy on level staking
3. Track your results over a long period ...resulting in a reasonable estimation of your edge

Tip: Estimate your edge within a range and run some simulations to give you a fair stab at defining what a "long period" is in terms of markets. Guessing too soon here results in false confidence, for example in my case thinking something was great and scaling up on it too soon only to encounter a rough patch right after. Pays to be prudent here.

Alternatively model a situation and track data for it, giving you a range where you can be confident if it falls outside of this then there's a good chance it's value (but often to achieve more confidence you have to track results over a long period as above as the market is always changing and your data reflects only how the market has reacted, not how it will in future)

If you remind me later, I'll have a look and see if my data collection caught the SP.

Not to worry, I'll simply omit this one.

And thanks James for info on the market not set to go IP, at least I know everything working as intended on my server.

[ShaunWhite]

2. Deploy your strategy on level staking

I'd suggest liability staking, less skewed by the price extremes.

[ShaunWhite]

I simply said that if you use BSP to judge value then you cannot use it pre-off because you don't know what it is until the off.

I also invited comment re the accuracy of Bf's projected BSP to see if that could be of help.

You know bsp when you're backtesting your model.

Tbh I wish the markets were random, you'd simply use placement, cancellation and match rates with a random walk model to predict the next tick move. The problem is that it's not random.

Betfair's projected SP is utterly useless, and only updated every 60s. If it was any use then this game would be a piece of piss.