Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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firlandsfarm
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Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

eightbo wrote:
Thu Aug 03, 2023 8:22 pm
1. Define a strategy
2. Deploy your strategy on level staking
3. Track your results over a long period ...resulting in a reasonable estimation of your edge
Thanks eightbo, I've been doing that for years when identifying statistical anomalies and taking advantage of them when they arise and I usually use BSP for my backtesting and returns calculations. But that's not the point I was trying to bring to the discussion. I've watched just about all of the "buy low sell high" videos but cannot see the price prediction they are detailing before it happens.

Firstly tell me if I am misdefining trading. I am defining trading as the opening of a position with the intention of closing it early. I am not talking about holding positions until the event is finished. For example, the many videos Peter posts where he opens and closes multiple positions and greens-up all before the off. That's why I'm saying BSP is of no help because the 'Peter like' trades have been opened and closed before the BSP is known.

It is clear that traders like Peter can predict price trends I'm not doubting that. All I'm saying is I cannot. I don't see any patterns in the price movements other than they go up and down seemingly at random to me. It's clearly a failing that I have. I was developing XTraders post re 'mugs game' ... not that I think it is, I was just saying I can't see how it is achieved. :(
sionascaig
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Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

firlandsfarm wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 7:07 am

.... For example, the many videos Peter posts where he opens and closes multiple positions and greens-up all before the off. That's why I'm saying BSP is of no help because the 'Peter like' trades have been opened and closed before the BSP is known.
Trade type - volatility
For trades closed (before the off) you may not have a "value" position relative to BSP, but did manage to take advantage of market volatility. Is there a need to worry about eventual BSP if you are trading volatility? A successful trade just comes down to whether you called right the direction of price movement over whatever time period.

Trade type - value
If you are looking for value against eventual BSP then to me this is a different kind of trade and will come down to whatever strategy you think can deliver value vs BSP based on your analysis & testing?

By considering these two types of trade as different help?
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napshnap
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sionascaig wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 8:51 am
firlandsfarm wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 7:07 am

.... For example, the many videos Peter posts where he opens and closes multiple positions and greens-up all before the off. That's why I'm saying BSP is of no help because the 'Peter like' trades have been opened and closed before the BSP is known.
Trade type - volatility
For trades closed (before the off) you may not have a "value" position relative to BSP, but did manage to take advantage of market volatility. Is there a need to worry about eventual BSP if you are trading volatility? A successful trade just comes down to whether you called right the direction of price movement over whatever time period.
...
A good example of this kind of non "value" relative to SP trade will be the case when Mad Bomber backs some runner for 40 ticks and huge chunk of his bet's still sitting there and you open trade by placing back bet right under his huge bet (cause you're a risky guy and you hope that he will drag his bet down to match it wholly)) ) and then he drags his bet down right to your closing lay bet (that maybe a little bigger that needed for hedge, cause, you're a smart guy who knows that this lay price is ridiculous and market will return to the price with which Mad Bomber started to "bomb" the market). Bet that opened the trade relates to type 1, bet that closed the trade relates to type 2.
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Euler
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Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 03, 2023 9:37 am
eightbo wrote:
Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:29 pm
How's it going guys,
I'm missing BSP data for the 13:15 (Goodwood 2nd Aug : 1m Grp 1 Arab Race).
Looks like the market didn't turn in-play?

Could anyone confirm or provide BSP data on this if it's easy for you.
I never trade Arabian races as the liquidity is too low.

If you remind me later, I'll have a look and see if my data collection caught the SP.
As it didn't go inplay I didn't capture SP either. Maybe available on the BSP data: -

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 8:51 am
firlandsfarm wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 7:07 am

.... For example, the many videos Peter posts where he opens and closes multiple positions and greens-up all before the off. That's why I'm saying BSP is of no help because the 'Peter like' trades have been opened and closed before the BSP is known.
Trade type - volatility
For trades closed (before the off) you may not have a "value" position relative to BSP, but did manage to take advantage of market volatility. Is there a need to worry about eventual BSP if you are trading volatility? A successful trade just comes down to whether you called right the direction of price movement over whatever time period.

Trade type - value
If you are looking for value against eventual BSP then to me this is a different kind of trade and will come down to whatever strategy you think can deliver value vs BSP based on your analysis & testing?

By considering these two types of trade as different help?

That's it in a nutshell.
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Euler
Posts: 26334
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

The market isn't random and has repeating patterns and biases.

Some markets just don't show anything and I wont trade them unless I have a concrete reason to do so.

I trade manually and automatically, the automated stuff is really quite simple, it's just focus on how do I get two orders matched. The manual stuff is a little more subtle as it's generally looking for extremes in the market and waiting for them to revert to mean. Sometimes they don't.

I had to go through a massive mindset shift to trade successfully and I've seen people simply fail to overcome that barrier. When I first started short term trading, on financials, I would do the exact opposite of what I needed to do. It was almost as though the market was fixed, it did the complete opposite of what I needed.

The truth is I didn't understand what I should be trying to do when trading. You need to exploit the volality you see, not get bullied by it.

You need to think differently, but also think about what people are thinking about, to trade well.

I'm a market watcher, a Bayesian, probabilistic contrarian.
arbitrage16
Posts: 570
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 11:44 am

You need to think differently, but also think about what people are thinking about, to trade well.
I've heard you mentioned this before and it makes a lot of sense, but definitely easier said than done in the heat of the moment.

Any tips on adopting this perspective?
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jamesedwards
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 4:09 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 11:44 am

You need to think differently, but also think about what people are thinking about, to trade well.
I've heard you mentioned this before and it makes a lot of sense, but definitely easier said than done in the heat of the moment.

Any tips on adopting this perspective?
Or think about what people are thinking that people are thinking about? :lol:
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

You can either obtain value deliberately, or inadvertently as a happy accident through volatility. You can't escape it though. And where possible it never hurts to look at where that's been gained or lost. It's not uncommon to break down these volatility wins and find one end or the other is doing all the heavy lifting.
arbitrage16
Posts: 570
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 4:38 pm
arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 4:09 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 11:44 am

You need to think differently, but also think about what people are thinking about, to trade well.
I've heard you mentioned this before and it makes a lot of sense, but definitely easier said than done in the heat of the moment.

Any tips on adopting this perspective?
Or think about what people are thinking that people are thinking about? :lol:
Every trading session like a sequel to Inception
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xtrader16
Posts: 429
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I dont know why people care about BSP its the most irrelevant info in trading if you ask me.

The only thing I can think of, and the there is obviously more to it than that, are people looking for some sort of relative connection between BSP and some fixed time point in the market but I doubt there is anything so consistant as to be tracking it. But we dont know what we dont know.
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ShaunWhite
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xtrader16 wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2023 8:12 am
I dont know why people care about BSP its the most irrelevant info in trading if you ask me.

The only thing I can think of, and the there is obviously more to it than that, are people looking for some sort of relative connection between BSP and some fixed time point in the market but I doubt there is anything so consistant as to be tracking it. But we dont know what we dont know.
If you're trading pre-off and not (fully) hedging you measure your performance against it to remove the variations caused by actual selection wins and losses.

You're right in that SP is just a point in time like any other, and that with no overall price bias between a random time and the race starting then it's not inherently 'more correct'. It just that it shows less deviation from 'correct' as markets always tend towards efficiency.

But value can be deliberate or inadvertent, Trading is just saying you think the price now isn't where it will be soon, ie I'm getting value vs a point in the future. And when the future price is more efficient then the earlier one then that 'value' endures.
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xtrader16
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Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:00 pm

Can you believe this crap. I've used this for years, by far the best webpage out there. Instant info, gone.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3554
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

xtrader16 wrote:
Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:43 am
Can you believe this crap. I've used this for years, by far the best webpage out there. Instant info, gone.

Yep, saw that recently too.

The ATR website is about the only other one that compares to it, unless you want to pay for a subscription service.
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xtrader16
Posts: 429
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:00 pm

I probably would have paid a subscription service for BTO. It is owned by Racing Post who apparently don't even want to include it in the Ultimate Package they sell. Minor set back, ATR incoming.
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