Gold
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
French banks looking a bit iffy. Oh well, it couldn't happen to a nicer set of people... bankers and French!Ferru123 wrote:There's talk that France is having financial problems, so I'm not surprised.
I don't know if France might need a bailout, but if they do, then I think we can safely say that the world economy will enter a new phase, and Lehmann will look like a cakewalk...
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Frank - are you going to look at exiting your position on Gold or part of it?
There must be a lot of people who are long on gold at the moment and who will be looking to take their profits at some point leading to downwards pressure?
Or do you see more trouble in the near future that is going to push the price even higher?
If it was me I think I would be looking to close out on part of my trade and then look to get back in in a while on the sign of more trouble.
There must be a lot of people who are long on gold at the moment and who will be looking to take their profits at some point leading to downwards pressure?
Or do you see more trouble in the near future that is going to push the price even higher?
If it was me I think I would be looking to close out on part of my trade and then look to get back in in a while on the sign of more trouble.
At the risk of boring everyone by banging on again about trend following... 
Trend following would say that no-one knows where a trend will end. It will end when the market wants it to end, not because of some technical analysis pattern or Fibonacci line of resistance. So if I were long on gold, I'd let my trend run until my rules told me to exit.
BTW, on the topic of gold, George Osborne said the other day that Gordon Brown's sale of British gold reserves a few years ago (against expert advice) has cost the UK taxpayer £12 billion. Nice one Mr Brown!
Jeff
Trend following would say that no-one knows where a trend will end. It will end when the market wants it to end, not because of some technical analysis pattern or Fibonacci line of resistance. So if I were long on gold, I'd let my trend run until my rules told me to exit.
BTW, on the topic of gold, George Osborne said the other day that Gordon Brown's sale of British gold reserves a few years ago (against expert advice) has cost the UK taxpayer £12 billion. Nice one Mr Brown!
Jeff
andyfuller wrote: If it was me I think I would be looking to close out on part of my trade and then look to get back in in a while on the sign of more trouble.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Yeah that is all well and good but what is that trend and would your trend even have you in a long position?Ferru123 wrote:Trend following would say that no-one knows where a trend will end. It will end when the market wants it to end, not because of some technical analysis pattern or Fibonacci line of resistance. So if I were long on gold, I'd let my trend run until my rules told me to exit.
It seems a kind of catch all statement with out any figures behind it, don't take that as me having a pop, we need a tone indicator or something
It is very easy to take peoples written comments the wrong way on forums.Frank I assume is not in his position on the basis of a trend?
Well, the market appears to be heading generally upwards at present...andyfuller wrote: Yeah that is all well and good but what is that trend
People define trends differently. Some people might choose to enter the market when it enters its highest point in the last 20 days. Other people prefer moving average crossovers. It's arbitrary. The main thing is that you get out quickly when the market goes against you, and let your profits run.
You'll get a 1 in 3 strike rate with pure trend following, and you'll rarely catch the bottoms or tops of trends. But if you can find a way of doing those things that gives the same results as trend following, then write to John W Henry - I'm sure he'd pay good money for that information...
Remember that, at any given point in time, the market is neither trending nor not trending. Trends are only knowable retrospectively...
I wouldn't presume to comment on Frank's methods.andyfuller wrote:Frank I assume is not in his position on the basis of a trend?
Jeff
PS To clarify, I'm not saying that trend following is the One True Truth. I keep an open mind; the fact that a market dynamic is unknown to me doesn't mean it doesn't exist!
But if someone were to point out an alternative approach, I'd want compelling evidence. You might read about a Fibonacci resistance level, for example, and see it work on a few charts. But can you be sure it will give you an edge over 10,000 charts? And isn't it possible that someone drawing lines at random could make a case for them being support and resistance lines, as they are near some point of inflection? Also, if you went to the Trade2Win forum, helpful people would provide you with countless examples of occasions when the method failed!
So whilst I keep an open mind, I'll only risk money on what's tried and tested, as otherwise I'm gambling.
Jeff
But if someone were to point out an alternative approach, I'd want compelling evidence. You might read about a Fibonacci resistance level, for example, and see it work on a few charts. But can you be sure it will give you an edge over 10,000 charts? And isn't it possible that someone drawing lines at random could make a case for them being support and resistance lines, as they are near some point of inflection? Also, if you went to the Trade2Win forum, helpful people would provide you with countless examples of occasions when the method failed!
So whilst I keep an open mind, I'll only risk money on what's tried and tested, as otherwise I'm gambling.
Jeff
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
I don't hold long term positions in anything atm (apart from the £ by default because I live in the UK and have no option).
I've bought precious metal ETFs in the past and made good money on them, but have none atm.
I hold physical precious metals (mainly silver) as an insurance policy really - I've no intention of selling my PMs until there's blood on the streets (and I don't mean I few kids nicking trainers!).
I know that the best way to trade a bull market is to buy and hold, but I still trade gold and silver short term. Day trading is my thing. I don't have the funds, time or patience for long term trading or investment. Having said I sometimes hold a FX position over longer timescales.
I've bought precious metal ETFs in the past and made good money on them, but have none atm.
I hold physical precious metals (mainly silver) as an insurance policy really - I've no intention of selling my PMs until there's blood on the streets (and I don't mean I few kids nicking trainers!).
I know that the best way to trade a bull market is to buy and hold, but I still trade gold and silver short term. Day trading is my thing. I don't have the funds, time or patience for long term trading or investment. Having said I sometimes hold a FX position over longer timescales.
I just mailed somebody an article I wrote in 2005. On it there is a mention of the gold markets.
An article in The Times in February 2003 may be the inspiration you are
looking for. An unnamed man in his thirties placed a buy order with
City Index on 5 January to buy gold using a spread bet. The price stood
at $350. Each $1 rise in the price of bullion would net him a profit of
£20,000. He sold half his position at $380 on 5 February, the day before
the article was published, banking £600,000. He was not the only person
to benefit from the surge in the price of gold. Another man bought gold
at below $300 and sold out at $350, pocketing £900,000 in the process.
An article in The Times in February 2003 may be the inspiration you are
looking for. An unnamed man in his thirties placed a buy order with
City Index on 5 January to buy gold using a spread bet. The price stood
at $350. Each $1 rise in the price of bullion would net him a profit of
£20,000. He sold half his position at $380 on 5 February, the day before
the article was published, banking £600,000. He was not the only person
to benefit from the surge in the price of gold. Another man bought gold
at below $300 and sold out at $350, pocketing £900,000 in the process.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Just watching some TV and heard that Indian Private individuals hold more gold than the Fed.
Also they were saying there is a key link between the Indian monsoon season and the price of gold - the better the harvest the more disposable income to spend on jewellery.
Also they were saying there is a key link between the Indian monsoon season and the price of gold - the better the harvest the more disposable income to spend on jewellery.
The market suddenly went into a gut-wrenching vertical plunge today, DOW graph shows a vertical wall plunging downwards faster then Frankel's In-Play oddsFerru123 wrote:
Well, the market appears to be heading generally upwards at present...
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/18/markets ... /index.htm
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Wall Street got socked on Thursday as renewed concerns about the U.S. and global economies sent major indexes plunging and pushed gold to a new high and bond yields to a record low.
Stocks were hit with bad news on multiple fronts. Morgan Stanley put out a dismal forecast for global economic growth. A key reading on U.S. housing came in worse than expected. And a report showed a significant slowdown in the domestic manufacturing sector."
Hopefully this illustrates the dangers of trend charting...
The equities markets are, but not gold, which is still riding steadily!Zenyatta wrote:The market suddenly went into a gut-wrenching vertical plunge today,Ferru123 wrote:
Well, the market appears to be heading generally upwards at present...
Jeff
Here is presentation about gold, silver and the current nature of the monetary system. It was just released yesterday. It is by Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com. It's 90 minutes long, but well worth the watch. It contains some invaluble information in my opinion.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
I've got a lot of time for Mike Maloney - at a bankers conference he once gave each guest a Zimbabwe $1 note and a Zimbabwe $100Tr note - he reminded them that they were printed 1 year apart and that the $1 note, when it was printed, bought something, and that the $100Tr note, when it was printed, bought nothing.ciangerry wrote:Here is presentation about gold, silver and the current nature of the monetary system. It was just released yesterday. It is by Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com. It's 90 minutes long, but well worth the watch. It contains some invaluble information in my opinion.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY
He said that's what happens a government is run off pure deficit spending - sounds familiar!
I once bought some silver bars from his company - best thing I ever bought!
German Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen calls for countries to put up gold as security for bailouts...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-2 ... teral.html
