Best Way to Identify a Gamble Which Has Stalled Using Automation?

[lm1994]

Hi all,

I was wondering what people use in their automation to define when a gamble on a runner has likely dried up.

I can define when a runner has been gambled and has been backed in but I’m struggling to come up with something that will define that the back money has stopped coming for the runner, and the bounce is likely to be on.

The only thing I can think of is to add a condition to the lay bet rule which would be satisfied by defining a window of prices and setting a running count using a signal when the best back price is within the window, should the running count surpass X seconds the condition would be met.

Anyone know of any other ways of defining a stall in backing on a steamer?

Regards

[Dallas]

There's an example here
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=13403

[ShaunWhite]

Anyone know of any other ways of defining a stall in backing on a steamer?

Volume delta.

[Dallas]

Anyone know of any other ways of defining a stall in backing on a steamer?

Volume delta.

You've got VD on the brain today

[ShaunWhite]

Volume delta.

You've got VD on the brain today

It was the shortest reply I've ever done.

This fella seems to have an idea or two, but will be unlikely to have any new ones
->

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[lm1994]

Anyone know of any other ways of defining a stall in backing on a steamer?

Volume delta.

Thanks Shaun,

Do you have any advice on the best way to automate something which tracks the volume delta?

I can see backing dry up visually when I trade manually, however, I’m unsure how I would be able to define this using automation.

Thanks for your help

[ShaunWhite]

Dallas is your man for Guardian suggestions, but on the surface it's a reduction in the volume change in a given period, maybe a reduction in the 5s rolling average but glitches and big bets would mean you'd need to smooth it out some way. Strictly speaking it's a calculus problem (the mathematical study of continuous change). It's a really tricky one to define, and then to solve, but then again if it takes a month and pays out for a year its time well spent. Good example though of something that's subjectively easy but objectively hard.

... Or it could be price change rates instead of or as well as volume?

ChatGPT might give you some of the more mathsy stuff?

[Dallas]

Dallas is your man for Guardian suggestions, but on the surface it's a reduction in the volume change in a given period, maybe a reduction in the 5s rolling average but glitches and big bets would mean you'd need to smooth it out some way. Strictly speaking it's a calculus problem (the mathematical study of continuous change). It's a really tricky one to define, and then to solve, but then again if it takes a month and pays out for a year its time well spent. Good example though of something that's subjectively easy but objectively hard.

... Or it could be price change rates instead of or as well as volume?

ChatGPT might give you some of the more mathsy stuff?

Probably one of the easiest things to spot visually and hardest to quantify

Before you could put it in to automation you'd need a hard set of value/percentages as conditions

In addition to what Shaun said above you can also find a price stalling but the volume staying around the same at least for a little longer the as the backer/layers even out, again easy to see that visually hard to put into a set of rules
Also you need to define the volume increase is due to a gamble and not market activity picking up when the previous race goes in-running/finishes

When your visually watching a gamble take place (and coming to an end) when you break it down its amazing just how many pieces of information you've actually taken into consideration across the market to form that decision

[ShaunWhite]

Probably one of the easiest things to spot visually and hardest to quantify

When your visually watching a gamble take place (and coming to an end) when you break it down its amazing just how many pieces of information you've actually taken into consideration across the market to form that decision

All very true.
Converting manual trading strategies to automaton is incredibly hard. Much better imo to see it as a completely different discipline and use automation for what manual traders can't do.

Manual, subjective, low scale, high margin.
Automation, objective, high scale, low margin.

Otherwise you end up with a screw you're trying to drive with a hammer or a nail you need a screwdriver for

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