Transition from Flat to Non-Flat Trading: Seeking Guidance :-)

[Diggy1884]

Feel free to remove those wrong times/the post Shaun. Not sure I can do it on my end.

I started to compile some times after I finished trading just now, in an attempt of a casual wind down I thought I would just watch some of the main races from Cheltenham/punches town on replay and jot down the times down in excel, I wanted to see that clock myself this time.

The task is taking me longer than expected lol so I think I will shelve that one for now, I've had an excellent day, my back hurts and I'm gonna go get myself a well deserved beer.

I don't want to bring eggy data to the table thanks for pointing it out

[ShaunWhite]

Ahh dobbers, forgot about that aspect! Pace maps/front runners.
I remember there was a front runner list (I think it was that) on another trader’s site, do you think a lot of people dob on those selections daily? It was a long time ago when I saw that so it might be gone.
RTV do a fair bit of the pace stuff so their site might be a good resource for me if I do delve that way.

It certainly seems a diverse range of ideas being exchanged down at the tape, pretty cool.
Enjoy your eve sir!

It's a complex ecosystem Diggy, thousands of people doing a wide variety of things. People Dob but personally I don't see the logic myself. If you use pace etc to model the expected price range of all of them, then why just pick the 50%ers when they're all tradable between - 99% and +99%? I'm just not interested in having 5 bets a day when there's probably over 250 horses to trade. (I only use automation)

And everyone and his dog can look at a front runner list, so the market won't necessarily respond when some loser happens to always run at the front anyway. Good luck though if you want to open the pace Pandora's box, some people devote a lifetime to that stuff. And in the last decade a lot of that will have been with ML and recently with TPD. Objective inefficiencies are hard to find.

There's 00s of ways to trade from fundamentals to order flow to high frequency algos placing hundreds of bets a second. Any of them can "work" , but it's all equally hard. Best thing to do is to just pick one thing and be one of the best at it. If you're considering automation then think about what it can do for you in terms of scale and multiple simultaneous markets and selections.

[Diggy1884]

Ahh dobbers, forgot about that aspect! Pace maps/front runners.
I remember there was a front runner list (I think it was that) on another trader’s site, do you think a lot of people dob on those selections daily? It was a long time ago when I saw that so it might be gone.
RTV do a fair bit of the pace stuff so their site might be a good resource for me if I do delve that way.

It certainly seems a diverse range of ideas being exchanged down at the tape, pretty cool.
Enjoy your eve sir!

It's a complex ecosystem Diggy, thousands of people doing a wide variety of things. People Dob but personally I don't see the logic myself. If you use pace etc to model the expected price range of all of them, then why just pick the 50%ers when they're all tradable between - 99% and +99%? I'm just not interested in having 5 bets a day when there's probably over 250 horses to trade. (I only use automation)

And everyone and his dog can look at a front runner list, so the market won't necessarily respond when some loser happens to always run at the front anyway. Good luck though if you want to open the pace Pandora's box, some people devote a lifetime to that stuff. And in the last decade a lot of that will have been with ML and recently with TPD. Objective inefficiencies are hard to find.

There's 00s of ways to trade from fundamentals to order flow to high frequency algos placing hundreds of bets a second. Any of them can "work" , but it's all equally hard. Best thing to do is to just pick one thing and be one of the best at it. If you're considering automation then think about what it can do for you in terms of scale and multiple simultaneous markets and selections.

Good morn/afternoon

Yes, the complexity of modelling XYZ makes sense, especially if you're not going to take full advantage of what is there. While I'm not focused on pace maps etc, understanding the various drivers of price in each market in addition to prospect theory is important to me. Cheers for your thoughts, me likey!

I've experimented with automation and found that it's not a shortcut to profits, which is to be expected in a way.

I stopped any automation I was running in the background (separate laptop) because I needed a more detailed plan and understanding of the variables at play. It became like a fly in the background, it wasn't helping my focus.

It is likely something I will revisit with my glasses fully on though and yes I do agree that it will work (you're proving this I see! Great Work btw), there are ways for sure!

My fiancé is a software engineer and she is quite interested in automation, it seems quite a techy pursuit. Naturally I think we both like the idea of going for a walk whilst some automation is cooking up some green for us lol but at the same time I can imagine it is a lot of clerical work/power query come end of the day. But this can probably be streamlined with time.

Based on my experiences of focusing on mastering one trading strategy, tracking my emotional state, I'm confident I am on the right track. My equity curve says the same too. I can see where my mood has dropped and my trading has also, but I have been quick in making adjustments. I reckon by the end of the year I will know my self better than my boxers do lol

While I am absolutely delighted with this progress, (I really am) I am also cautious about other areas which I believe is natural which was the reasons for my original postings.

Have a great day!

[ShaunWhite]

Automation is far from easy because although you have scale and speed you have to do without subjectivity.

As far as collecting data is concerned then if you've got a software engineer in your family then you might want to consider connecting directly to the Betfair api using c# or python (or vba) and storing it in a database (I use SQL). Betfair supply all the libraries you need. You'll end up with millisecond data as per the data they sell. https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home. You can run that 247 on a vps (such as AWS or the BA vps) for whatever sports you want. Slightly better than watching and using a notepad

You could then analyse that data, or, if you're serious and want to take it further, you could build/use a simulator to backtest against that data. Again there's open source software to help with that (Google 'flumine' or Betfairlightweight')

What you're doing now is fine, but that gives you some idea about how far you can take it. Don't expect any easy money though. Margins are small and the competition is fierce. There's only so much profit that can be shared around.

[ShaunWhite]

Feel free to remove those wrong times/the post Shaun. Not sure I can do it on my end.

Neither can I I'm not a forum mod.

[Diggy1884]

(I only use automation)

I have the book, 'Design, Testing and optimization of trading systems' but am yet to get through it as it seems way geared to automation, are there any books you'd recommend that have helped you with the your bot/automation process etc I could create a little bot section on the shelf haha

[Diggy1884]

Feel free to remove those wrong times/the post Shaun. Not sure I can do it on my end.

Neither can I I'm not a forum mod.

Haha, it's all gone a bit west! I will get them times sorted at some point aye!

[Diggy1884]

Automation is far from easy because although you have scale and speed you have to do without subjectivity.

As far as collecting data is concerned then if you've got a software engineer in your family then you might want to consider connecting directly to the Betfair api using c# or python (or vba) and storing it in a database (I use SQL). Betfair supply all the libraries you need. You'll end up with millisecond data as per the data they sell. https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home. You can run that 247 on a vps (such as AWS or the BA vps) for whatever sports you want. Slightly better than watching and using a notepad

You could then analyse that data, or, if you're serious and want to take it further, you could build/use a simulator to backtest against that data. Again there's open source software to help with that (Google 'flumine' or Betfairlightweight')

What you're doing now is fine, but that gives you some idea about how far you can take it. Don't expect any easy money though. Margins are small and the competition is fierce. There's only so much profit that can be shared around.

Thanks for the advice on connecting to the Betfair API I think we did have a look at it in the past but at the time we had other priorities. Perhaps an oversight, nice one for nudging me in that direction.

We have dabbled in some data-centric projects around football and late goals but decided to shelve that (for now) to focus on the racing as it was more enjoyable.

I did Odin Project a couple of years back so have some basic programming skills, but I admit, it just isn’t my bag, obviously I see the value in programming though, I’m not a melt. A.I though, big changes, I do feel we are slightly fkd but that’s another thing haha.
I am so so so lucky to have a programmer in the family, not only that but if I give her Sherry, she is happy to watch Midsommer Murders and code away ( I make her sound about 90 lol), I just need to guide her on the project. But yeh, my focus isn’t on that currently. Getting married in 5 weeks so all go! haha.

Right now, we're pulling lots of racing data from online sources, but it's sitting idle due to time constraints, I always think, it’s probably non more valuable to me in that sheer data form than how I currently approach things as an organic thinking machine with a back tested plan. I will be doing some machine learning courses though in the future, think Mike Pound has a basic course I could get into.
Will have a look into open-source (flumine/betfairlightweight) stuff cheers!
I see your comments about the forum, and you are always super helpful to everyone.

Brilliant stuff!

[ShaunWhite]

are there any books you'd recommend that have helped you with the your bot/automation process etc I could create a little bot section on the shelf haha

It's such a niche field and yet so broad there are isn't much specifically about it, and the ones with the knowledge don't need a few quid from selling books generally. Ultimately it's about finding +EV and not falling in to the trap of backfitting. (ie keeping training data and test data seperate). Simple eh.

I'll confess that although my setup is relatively sophisticated (it's been 7 or 8 years in the evolution) I'm not au fait with much of the newer ML or analytics. I do what I do and it works for me and I'm a bit long in the tooth for learning many new tricks.

[Diggy1884]

It's such a niche field and yet so broad there are isn't much specifically about it, and the ones with the knowledge don't need a few quid from selling books generally. Ultimately it's about finding +EV and not falling in to the trap of backfitting. (ie keeping training data and test data seperate). Simple eh.

I'll confess that although my setup is relatively sophisticated (it's been 7 or 8 years in the evolution) I'm not au fait with much of the newer ML or analytics. I do what I do and it works for me and I'm a bit long in the tooth for learning many new tricks.

I'm glad you're prospering, as much as it's a zero sum game it is comforting to know that those who invested the time and effort are more likely to get something out of it. But it is not a given right!

Sounds like you have your ways my friend! If it isn't broke don't fix it.

I can imagine you built on a solid foundation then moved out from there?

Pleasure chatting!

[Diggy1884]

punter focus adapting in real time to the results as horses fall

Silly comment really when we have had Jumps fixtures between flat fixtures all year round pretty much.

[ShaunWhite]

punter focus adapting in real time to the results as horses fall

Silly comment really when we have had Jumps fixtures between flat fixtures all year round pretty much.

Here you go https://www.britishhorseracing.com/raci ... full-year/

"punters" would have a hell of a job responding to fallers, TPD, drones, tracksiders and high speed market reactive bots mean the price is at 1000 before they've even seen it. In fact the fastest market info for the vast majority of people is the market itself.

[Diggy1884]

punter focus adapting in real time to the results as horses fall

Silly comment really when we have had Jumps fixtures between flat fixtures all year round pretty much.

Here you go https://www.britishhorseracing.com/raci ... full-year/

"punters" would have a hell of a job responding to fallers, TPD, drones, tracksiders and high speed market reactive bots mean the price is at 1000 before they've even seen it. In fact the fastest market info for the vast majority of people is the market itself.

Oooosh, hello! Thank you for that! I will be having a good look over that link.

Drones you say, the 249 gram ones..? Googles nearest race track hehe
I'll stick to my ladder & cosy space. TPD, maybe one day...
Cheers Shaun!

[ShaunWhite]

Drones you say,

Some people make a lot of effort to make an easy living. But you can make a lot more using your brains rather than dragging your arse round the country for half a dozen races with poor liquidity.

[Diggy1884]

For anyone who may have followed/read this thread, it was a little bit of an enquiry about Flat – Jumps transition but also a bit of a ramble about my own trading journey (I must have gotten lonely boo hoo).
That being said, I thought I would update what I am doing now.
York was amazing, I used to be cautious about the ‘big’ festivals but after this one I want more more more!
The week after though…Eek that was testing in a few ways, mostly in the sense that I didn’t do much at all, possibly 3 or 4 trades in 4 days.
But this actually helped me.
I realised that I could be on some amazing drifts, and that I am disciplined enough to add another strategy, I had the set ups ready to go and my entry times are the similar. I also realised that I needed to work on my risk profile. This week has seen me do this effectively so far and I look forward to some Grp racing tomorrow at Donny.

I’m quite keen to try some of this late/early/morn/night Australian racing in the coming months too whilst also grappling with what I mentioned in earlier posts.
So, there we have it.
Happy trading everyone!