Dealing with in-running liquidity at Irish/aw tracks

[ungthjerta]

I got back into dobbing recently and turned a £200 bank into around £400, betting 2.5% on each dobbed horse. Much of the profit I have generated comes from Irish and late-night racing, though, where my lowly £20 lay at 3.1 is starting to look like it will scare the market. I've already had two lays only partially matched where the runners were looking really good (probably because one of the 5 people watching and trading the race had fallen asleep). There is probably a limit of in-running profit one can expect from any race, so if I continue to win, 2.5% of the bankroll will not be an appropriate stake.

I'd like to continue to trade such races and, so it seems, I have two options:
drip-laying with automation
using total amount traded on the runner as a factor in setting the bet size

Drip-laying might be good for not spooking the market but there's still the liquidity problem. I was thinking that there's some percentage the volume on the runner at post time that's the ideal in-play trading stake but I'm not sure what that number would be. Any ideas?

[ShaunWhite]

Every market has a limit to how much you can turnover, it's just the way it is. The solution is to find more opportunities. You mention Dobbing, so presumably not that many horses a day as when you do your analysis you're looking for just the potential 50% price movers. That analysis could in theory also identify those that will move by any percentage from +90% to - 90% and then all horses become targets.

Especially if you're automating, you can look beyond the traditional strategies that are limitted by the fact one person has one pair of eyes. We all do very different things but by comparison to someone picking a handful of horses or just trading the favourite, I trade between 7 and 800 selections a day. Yes it's for pennies each but it's easier to turn a penny into a pound, than it is to turn a pound into a hundered as you're seeing.

Profit = Stake * Edge * Opportunity.

Stake is limitted, edge is often hard to improve, what's left?

[ungthjerta]

Profit = Stake * Edge * Opportunity.

Stake is limitted, edge is often hard to improve, what's left?

Right you are, that's why I added a short-in-running strategy which yielded many more trades. Unfortunately, with my selection criteria, I was about breaking even after the lays got matched, so I tightened them up and... few opportunities again. I'm now looking at horse/jockey, and horse/course/distance combinations of horses that are negative realised value over their careers (which means not too many other dobbers). This has yielded a few more selections, one of which that trobbed today where the jockey over her last 9 races on the mount had trobbed at 66% and the horse trobbed 7/10 at the course and distance.

I know next to nothing about football, suck at pre-race, in-play that's not set and forget is too challenging for me and dobbing is a niche that I know alot about and am profitable at. I have dipped my feet in at tennis, though (anther ******* learning curve