carnage in the markets this afternoon after bad US unemployment numbers - initially the DAX rallied before plunging 300 points in about half an hour then bouncing sharply off the recent yearly lows.
those hoping to get in ahead of Uncle Ben's speech tmrw have probably had their stops wiped out already.
interesting times.
QE3?
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andyfuller
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Is QE3 really the dead cert everyone seems to be making out? Watching the tv it seems people think it is a done deal. So would it be an idea to short the markets and be long gold on the chance QE3 doesn't happen?
The markets seemed to have this week taken account of QE3 or do you expect markets to rally more immediately if QE3 does go ahead?
The markets seemed to have this week taken account of QE3 or do you expect markets to rally more immediately if QE3 does go ahead?
It's common for TV commentators to speak with conviction about something in the financial world, and then be proved wrong.andyfuller wrote:Is QE3 really the dead cert everyone seems to be making out? Watching the tv it seems people think it is a done deal.
I think all we can say is that Uncle Ben has form for using QE to tackle dire economic problems. But as for whether he'll pull the trigger tomorrow, if anyone knew for sure they'd be too busy selling the information for millions to appear on TV!
Jeff
PS Do you guys find that horse racing commentators also often spout a load of rubbish, often saying a horse is a dead cert, only for it to finish last, and overlooking value?
Jeff
Jeff
Ferru123 wrote: It's common for TV commentators to speak with conviction about something in the financial world, and then be proved wrong.
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andyfuller
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I wasn't just talking about on the TV. Even on this forum it was coming across to me from comments that QE3 was a done deal.Ferru123 wrote: It's common for TV commentators to speak with conviction about something in the financial world, and then be proved wrong.
What is it they say about past performance not being an indicator of future performanceFerru123 wrote:I think all we can say is that Uncle Ben has form for using QE to tackle dire economic problems.
As for racing commentators there aren't many that will discuss value properly imo as they are only on screen that day. Value is a long term game and not a day long game, they need to try and get winners so as to look good on camera imo.
I suppose you need to give the people what they want...
I once tried to explain the concept of value to a former colleague, but he just wasn't interested! All he wanted to do was bet on a horse that was likely to win, so he could make £50 and buy some cigarettes! When I asked him whether he was up overall since he started betting, I never got a straight 'Yes' or 'No' answer! To him, it just didn't seem to matter! In the end I gave up, and just smiled and wished him good luck every time he told me about a horse he was betting on that 'should win'!
It's that kind of attitude that makes the likes of Fred Done very wealthy!
Jeff
I once tried to explain the concept of value to a former colleague, but he just wasn't interested! All he wanted to do was bet on a horse that was likely to win, so he could make £50 and buy some cigarettes! When I asked him whether he was up overall since he started betting, I never got a straight 'Yes' or 'No' answer! To him, it just didn't seem to matter! In the end I gave up, and just smiled and wished him good luck every time he told me about a horse he was betting on that 'should win'!
It's that kind of attitude that makes the likes of Fred Done very wealthy!
Jeff
andyfuller wrote: Value is a long term game and not a day long game, they need to try and get winners so as to look good on camera imo.
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superfrank
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It would have been a great idea about month ago when QE3 was priced in and the increasingly bad economic data was being brushed off... the DAX, for example, has dropped over 25% in that time and is still well over 20% down.andyfuller wrote:Is QE3 really the dead cert everyone seems to be making out? Watching the tv it seems people think it is a done deal. So would it be an idea to short the markets and be long gold on the chance QE3 doesn't happen?
The markets seemed to have this week taken account of QE3 or do you expect markets to rally more immediately if QE3 does go ahead?
I'm still trying to figure out why German companies are deemed such a worse bet that US ones - I know the DAX is only 30 firms, but there are some very solid industrials in there. Any ideas?!
If QE3 goes ahead and is sizeable enough then I still expect a rally of sorts - but I don't think it will be as strong or last as long as previous post-printing rallys. I'm just hoping silver gets mullered in the hope of being able to pick some more at bargain prices.
Perhaps it isn't the firms themselves, but concerns about the Euro.
I wouldn't want to have my life savings in German equities when the Eurozone crisis comes to a head...
Jeff
I wouldn't want to have my life savings in German equities when the Eurozone crisis comes to a head...
Jeff
superfrank wrote: I'm still trying to figure out why German companies are deemed such a worse bet that US ones - I know the DAX is only 30 firms, but there are some very solid industrials in there. Any ideas?!
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superfrank
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Jackson Hole guests tell Fed to keep rabbit in hat
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jackso ... MW_popular
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jackso ... MW_popular
John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo, agreed that the woes facing the economy are structural in nature and described the Fed policy options as modest.
“The Fed has shot the big cannons. They are now playing the game with smaller ammunition,” Silvia said.
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superfrank
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It's interesting that the bankers are warning that more extreme monetary loosening isn't the solution; but the political pressure for him to act is still there.
If he admits that there's not much more central banks can do then stock markets could fall further - these days the big money wants quick wins, they won't be prepared to wait for economic restructuring that will take many many years (if it's possible at all with globalisation).
Markets are back to below Jackson's Hole 2010, surely that tells us that the policy failed?
If he admits that there's not much more central banks can do then stock markets could fall further - these days the big money wants quick wins, they won't be prepared to wait for economic restructuring that will take many many years (if it's possible at all with globalisation).
Markets are back to below Jackson's Hole 2010, surely that tells us that the policy failed?
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andyfuller
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Looks like the crowd got it wrong, again.andyfuller wrote:What is it they say about past performance not being an indicator of future performanceFerru123 wrote:I think all we can say is that Uncle Ben has form for using QE to tackle dire economic problems.
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superfrank
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so BB did pretty said nothing - the first time he's done anything I've agreed with!
I wonder if this means no more QE from Mystic Merv?
I wonder if this means no more QE from Mystic Merv?
Bernanke seemed to express his trust in Merv and Trichet, when he said he has 'confidence that our European colleagues fully appreciate what is at stake in the difficult issues they are now confronting'.
Or maybe it was code for, 'The stakes are enormous, so don't **** things up for all of us'!
Jeff
Or maybe it was code for, 'The stakes are enormous, so don't **** things up for all of us'!
Jeff
superfrank wrote: I wonder if this means no more QE from Mystic Merv?