UK General Election 2024 (or 25)

[greenmark]

No doubt the Tory’s will be gone in 2024. But you have to ask yourself how come they survived come that point for 14 years.

I don’t think that’s all down to the Labour Party being unelectable during that timeframe but more a reflection on the electorate.

Not saying my fellow man is stupid but one does have to ask what education they had and are they easily led by the media.

Surely you can only swallow so many lies.

And that’s coming from a paid up Conservative Party member.

In the meantime, peace, no need for left /right arguments.

I'm just a bit staggered by the speed and bile with which Cruella has retaliated to being sacked. Does she think this is a good look leading up to an election?

EDIT: The market has barely shifted Labour 1.35 out to 1.37. So someone likes what she says.

[jamesedwards]

Little surprised to see the current GE prices. Despite being heavy odds-on, Labour still look a great price at present

1.15 to win most seats
1.35 to win an overall majority

Sunak has been responsible for getting rid of Boris and Suella......Tory voters hate him, and even elected Liz Truss ahead of him!

I can't see any way of them stopping Labour after the events of this week

Recent history shows that markets have over-estimated the influence of social media sentiment. In the last few years General Elections, Brexit, US Presidency results have all flown in the face of popular social media opinion. It doesn't surprise me that markets have become much more wary of "shocks".

[jamesedwards]

No doubt the Tory’s will be gone in 2024. But you have to ask yourself how come they survived come that point for 14 years.

I don’t think that’s all down to the Labour Party being unelectable during that timeframe but more a reflection on the electorate.

Not saying my fellow man is stupid but one does have to ask what education they had and are they easily led by the media.

Surely you can only swallow so many lies.

And that’s coming from a paid up Conservative Party member.

In the meantime, peace, no need for left /right arguments.

I'm just a bit staggered by the speed and bile with which Cruella has retaliated to being sacked. Does she think this is a good look leading up to an election?

EDIT: The market has barely shifted Labour 1.35 out to 1.37. So someone likes what she says.

I wonder if the whole thing has been her strategy to become the next party leader. If she thinks the Conservatives are done at the next election, then she's distanced herself from Sunak while simultaneously appealing to the right wing of the party. Ready to step in if Sunak's Conservatives are defeated.

[LeTiss]

Recent history shows that markets have over-estimated the influence of social media sentiment. In the last few years General Elections, Brexit, US Presidency results have all flown in the face of popular social media opinion. It doesn't surprise me that markets have become much more wary of "shocks".

That's a fair point. I'm thinking it's got to the point where Labour will need to blow it, rather than the Tories win it. Although, Neil Kinnock famously did exactly that in 1992

[greenmark]

No doubt the Tory’s will be gone in 2024. But you have to ask yourself how come they survived come that point for 14 years.

I don’t think that’s all down to the Labour Party being unelectable during that timeframe but more a reflection on the electorate.

Not saying my fellow man is stupid but one does have to ask what education they had and are they easily led by the media.

Surely you can only swallow so many lies.

And that’s coming from a paid up Conservative Party member.

In the meantime, peace, no need for left /right arguments.

I'm just a bit staggered by the speed and bile with which Cruella has retaliated to being sacked. Does she think this is a good look leading up to an election?

EDIT: The market has barely shifted Labour 1.35 out to 1.37. So someone likes what she says.

I wonder if the whole thing has been her strategy to become the next party leader. If she thinks the Conservatives are done at the next election, then she's distanced herself from Sunak while simultaneously appealing to the right wing of the party. Ready to step in if Sunak's Conservatives are defeated.

And all the time while these self-centred wazzocks perform the nation is diminshed.

[Derek27]

It hurts me to mention Braverman without using the b-word, but that 3-page letter could just as easily be Starmer's notes at the next PM question time. Conservatives are divided between those glad to see the back of her and those who think Sunak has made his biggest mistake.

She's calling Sunak a liar - happy to run her party into the ground if it means getting the chance to lead it.

Meanwhile, Starmer intends to put Labour's position on Israel to a vote.

[jamesedwards]

Farage is currently 2nd fav to be next UK Prime Minister.

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[Michael5482]

Farage is currently 2nd fav to be next UK Prime Minister.

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Noticed he's started appearing on ITV adverts to go in that jungle thing Ant n Dec do, what price is he to win that Do they do markets for that? He's got to be worth a lay.

[LeTiss]

That is bonkers isn't it.

Reform are not going to get into government and how can he possibly become Tory leader without even having a seat?

If the 1922 committee are getting rid of Boris and Suella.....what are the chances of them hiring Farage?
I'd happily lay Farage at 38.00

[Derek27]

Is there really a minister for commonsense, or are they just joking about it on Sky?

[Derek27]

That is bonkers isn't it.

Reform are not going to get into government and how can he possibly become Tory leader without even having a seat?

If the 1922 committee are getting rid of Boris and Suella.....what are the chances of them hiring Farage?
I'd happily lay Farage at 38.00

I get tempted to lay no hopers at big prices but it's a long time to tie up money for a small percentage.

[LeTiss]

It is, that is true

It's difficult trading these ante-post markets when full-time trading, because it can take days to get both sides of the book matched, which is just tying working capital up

[Derek27]

Braverman's doing a Prince Harry. I thought that 3-page letter was bad enough, but she's not done with him and has more to say. She hates him as much as I hate her.

In fairness to Sunak, the by-election defeats weren't down to him but his predecessors and the mess he's inherited.

[Archery1969]

If I were Sunak, then I would call a meeting with all the Tory MPs and tell Braveman and all her supporters to cross the floor to join the opposition or resign their seats.

If there don’t then I would threaten them all with calling an early general election right on Xmas.

They can either ditch her and swear under oath support for Sunak or fuck off.

[Derek27]

If I were Sunak, then I would call a meeting with all the Tory MPs and tell Braveman and all her supporters to cross the floor to join the opposition or resign their seats.

If there don’t then I would threaten them all with calling an early general election right on Xmas.

They can either ditch her and swear under oath support for Sunak or fuck off.

I wasn't interested in politics in 1995, but from what I recall, the Tory party weren't in the mess they are now when John Major made his put up or shut up speech. Sunak is too weak to do anything like that. I'm just baffled by Braverman preferring to be leader of the opposition than a minister in government.

She claims there was a written agreement between the two of them, I hope she's gonna publish it.

Despite you having been rejected by a majority of party members during the summer leadership contest and thus having no personal mandate to be prime minister, I agreed to support you because of the firm assurances you gave me on key policy priorities. These were, among other things:

1. Reduce overall legal migration as set out in the 2019 manifesto through, inter alia, reforming the international students route and increasing salary thresholds on work visas
2. Include specific "notwithstanding clauses" into new legislation to stop the boats, ie exclude the operation of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), Human Rights Act (HRA) and other international law that had thus far obstructed progress on this issue
3. Deliver the Northern Ireland Protocol and Retained EU Law Bills in their then existing form and timetable
4. Issue unequivocal statutory guidance to schools that protects biological sex, safeguards single sex spaces, and empowers parents to know what is being taught to their children.

This was a document with clear terms to which you agreed in October 2022 during your second leadership campaign. I trusted you. It is generally agreed that my support was a pivotal factor in winning the leadership contest and thus enabling you to become prime minister.

I suppose that explains why she felt she could say what she wants, do as she pleases, write newspaper articles without permission and stick two fingers up to Downing Street. Looks like she pushed her luck too far.