UK General Election 2024 (or 25)

[sionascaig]

Winning the most seats isn't the same as a majority.
That's still at 1.36 for Labour and hasn't been budged for a while. But I guess as the campaigns kick it could all be turned on it's head when someone makes a gaffe.

So c1.16 for most seats (almost a certainty) & 1.36 for overall majority...

If the election was held tomorrow, I'd expect most seats price to be less than 1.05

==> c11%to 15% for uncertainty over timing (and a maybe a big unexpected)?

[firlandsfarm]

But the market is taking no notice of the noise at the moment. It's like everyone has gone to sleep.
I don't understand the way markets move.
It may well be we're too far out from the main event for anyone to change their opinion yet.
I really did expect the Labour revolt over Starmer's stance on an Israeli ceasefire to have some impact. But there was absolutely no effect.
The market seems like a sleeping wolf waiting for some major political event.

I can't claim to be a Market expert, far from it but does the news move markets or the Opinion Polls?

[greenmark]

But the market is taking no notice of the noise at the moment. It's like everyone has gone to sleep.
I don't understand the way markets move.
It may well be we're too far out from the main event for anyone to change their opinion yet.
I really did expect the Labour revolt over Starmer's stance on an Israeli ceasefire to have some impact. But there was absolutely no effect.
The market seems like a sleeping wolf waiting for some major political event.

I can't claim to be a Market expert, far from it but does the news move markets or the Opinion Polls?

I don't know. But one of my bosses (way back) had a tv in his office with teletext financial info all the time.
So I assume that often news outlets are the first to know that something is going affect the financial markets. Isn't any other source virtually or definitely insider trsding?

On my point, it's true to say I don't actually know what the price was before the Labour rebellion. I just looked at the betfair graph and guessed the price hadn't moved. Need to pay more regular attention I guess.

[Archangel]

How many election cycles away are we from a major party running on a ticket for rejoining the European Union??

[Archery1969]

How many election cycles away are we from a major party running on a ticket for rejoining the European Union??

Well, if this data is true and unless lots of people have changed their minds then you will need to wait until a large number of the over 45s have snuffed it. But I guess anything is possible.

[greenmark]

How many election cycles away are we from a major party running on a ticket for rejoining the European Union??

I wonder how Starmer is going to handle this question. Every economic failure has and will be blamed on Brexit by some.
Personally, I think any party suggesting rejoining the EU is toast.
We may well get a fudged "renegotiation' of the brexit deal in 2025 or 26, but rejoining won't happen in my lifetime IMO.

[firlandsfarm]

How many election cycles away are we from a major party running on a ticket for rejoining the European Union??

Well, if this data is true and unless lots of people have changed their minds then you will need to wait until a large number of the over 45s have snuffed it. But I guess anything is possible.

Yes but they will be replaced with the next wave of over 45's General consensus seems to be that you are likely to be Left of Centre and a Remainer/Joiner when young but gradually moving across to be Right of Centre and a Leaver as you get older.

[Archery1969]

How many election cycles away are we from a major party running on a ticket for rejoining the European Union??

Well, if this data is true and unless lots of people have changed their minds then you will need to wait until a large number of the over 45s have snuffed it. But I guess anything is possible.

Yes but they will be replaced with the next wave of over 45's General consensus seems to be that you are likely to be Left of Centre and a Remainer/Joiner when young but gradually moving across to be Right of Centre and a Leaver as you get older.

I guess if they allow the over 16s to vote during a general election then its possible.

[sionascaig]

How many election cycles away are we from a major party running on a ticket for rejoining the European Union??

Well SNP (3rd largest party) are but I suspect you mean Lab or Cons... If anything that will keep the debate alive (and used to skewer labour), at least in Scotland.

QT was interesting last night when the issue came up - was in Doncaster which was a large leave vote.... Everything seemed to be blamed on Brexit & failed levelling up policies by the audience. I didn't get the impression there was much Brexit support left although that might be because the leavers were just keeping quiet.

And of course you still have Michael Heseltine leading a rejoin initiative.

[Derek27]

Terrible courtroom setup. Barristers have to question the evidence giver with his/her back to the questioner!

[Derek27]

Matt Handoncock says nobody has brought to him a better option, even with hindsight, than returning elderly people infected with Covid back to care homes to infect and kill the residents.

[firlandsfarm]

Many criticise MH's decision to return elderly patients to their care-home but like MH I've yet to hear a better option. Leave them in the hospital and turn away new patients or move them out of hospital to free up beds for new patients. Is there a third option other than sharing beds?!

[sionascaig]

Many criticise MH's decision to return elderly patients to their care-home but like MH I've yet to hear a better option. Leave them in the hospital and turn away new patients or move them out of hospital to free up beds for new patients. Is there a third option other than sharing beds?!

I think the main issue was not testing them before the move into care homes but that may have been an NHS guidance issue / failure rather than specifically MH's fault.

[firlandsfarm]

Many criticise MH's decision to return elderly patients to their care-home but like MH I've yet to hear a better option. Leave them in the hospital and turn away new patients or move them out of hospital to free up beds for new patients. Is there a third option other than sharing beds?!

I think the main issue was not testing them before the move into care homes but that may have been an NHS guidance issue / failure rather than specifically MH's fault.

If they were showing symptoms rhey should have been eligible to stay in the hospital, if not then why detain them? I said 'eligible' because again what do you do if you don't have enough beds to keep everyone in the hospital?

[greenmark]

Many criticise MH's decision to return elderly patients to their care-home but like MH I've yet to hear a better option. Leave them in the hospital and turn away new patients or move them out of hospital to free up beds for new patients. Is there a third option other than sharing beds?!

I think the main issue was not testing them before the move into care homes but that may have been an NHS guidance issue / failure rather than specifically MH's fault.

If they were showing symptoms rhey should have been eligible to stay in the hospital, if not then why detain them? I said 'eligible' because again what do you do if you don't have enough beds to keep everyone in the hospital?

Was it not the case that seemingly dischargeable NHS patients were at greater risk in a hospital than a care home?
That (with hindsight) proved to be utterly incorrect. Care homes are private enterprises. The owners don't give a shit about their clients or employees.
It seems it wasn't MH sending back into care homes from the NHS tht was the issue. The issue is care homes are run by bastards.