The "frustrated at race scheduling" thread

[andyfuller]

Since the betting shop punter is always a loser, HRI prefer him to bet on Irish racing, from which they draw income, and not on UK racing, from which they get nothing.

HRI has no reason whatsoever to help UK racing.

At last you see my point (not convinced you do tbh ) and you agree the Irish should now put Listowel back by 5 minutes which would allow Mr So It Is to be paid out from by his Kildare Bookmaker and then give him time to bet on the Irish race as opposed to opting for the Brighton race due to Listowel already being off by the time he gets his winnings.

So by putting their racing back now by 5 minutes they will gain increased Levy as more people (in Ireland and the UK) will have the opportunity to bet on Listowel.

Yes Irish racing doesn't get anything from the UK people betting on the Irish racing but they will benefit from the extra betting done by Irish people who now bet on the Listowel race who would otherwise have bet on the UK racing from which Irish racing gains no benefit.

[payuppal]

Perfectly understand what you are saying, and it's wrong.

The amount of money the betting shop punter has to lose is finite.

It doesn't increase because there are more races to bet on.

HRI want him to lose that money on races they benefit from.

Why on earth would they reschedule their races to make it easier for him to bet on UK races?

The only reason would be if Irish betting shop punters were net winners on Uk races.

See any flying pigs outside?

[andyfuller]

HRI want him to lose that money on races they benefit from.

Why on earth would they reschedule their races to make it easier for him to bet on UK races?

Re-read what I wrote and you will see that it makes it more likely he will bet on the Irish racing and less likely he will bet on the UK racing as he now has time to get his winnings from Kempton (whihc he was betting on regardless) and place the bet on Listowel with his Kempton winnings.

With the current race timings he potentially may not have his winnings from Kempton by the time Listowel is off and so place his bet on Brighton.

So the current Irish race timings are actually going to increase the likelyhood of him not betting on the Irish racing.

If you can explain to me how he is more likely to bet on Listowel with his Kempton winnings with the current 5 min gap than he is if they were to put it back 5 mins then I will agree I am wrong. Good luck

[payuppal]

You are assuming he wins at Kempton and reinvests at Listowel.

The strong likelihood is that he will lose at Kempton and will have no money to bet on Listowel.

Tha's why you are wrong.

He has X to lose each day.

Better for HRI that he bets and loses on Irish races.

Simples.

[payuppal]

And you cannot assume he would bet at Kempton regardless.

If Listowel and Kempton are the same time, the Irish punter is much more likely to bet on Listowel.

[Iron]

Gamblers aren't known for quitting when they're ahead, so it doesn't seem outlandish to assume that at least some will 'reinvest' their winnings...

Jeff

You are assuming he wins at Kempton and reinvests at Listowel.

[payuppal]

They can only reinvest from Kempton if they win.

They are much more likely to lose, a loss which won't benefit HRI.

It therefore makes no sense for HRI to change the race times.

Which is the point.

[Iron]

True, but most people bet on favourites, and a third of favourites win...

Jeff

They can only reinvest from Kempton if they win.

[mulberryhawk]

and 2/3rds lose

[Iron]

...which is why, if you're a bookie, you want punters to recycle their money as often as possible!

Jeff

and 2/3rds lose

[andyfuller]

You are assuming he wins at Kempton and reinvests at Listowel.

The strong likelihood is that he will lose at Kempton and will have no money to bet on Listowel.

Tha's why you are wrong.

And you cannot assume he would bet at Kempton regardless.

If Listowel and Kempton are the same time, the Irish punter is much more likely to bet on Listowel.

You have missed my point again.

I am by no means saying all Irish punters are betting on Kempton racing (nor are you).

What I am saying and I do not think it would take a big leap in faith that there may just be the odd Irish punter who is betting on Kempton today as well as the other 2 meetings left on.

And from that pool of Irish people there may just be the odd one who wins on their bet at Kempton. By no means all but I think we can say there may be a few.

Of those few there may be just one or two perhaps who would reinvest their winnings from Kempton at Listowel if they were given enough time to get that bet on.

By putting Listowel back by 5 mins now Muss is off you are increasing the likelyhood that these people who have won at Kempton and are betting in Ireland may bet on Listowel.

But with Listowel not being put back you are more likely to have the above Irish people place their winnings on the next available race to them which happens to be Brighton from which Irish racing gains no benefit.

For those Irish people who lose at Kempton I agree HRI get no benefit, but surely HRI are better getting the people I mention above betting on the Irish racing and not Brighton with their Kempton winnings?

As long as the benefit HRI potentially can gain by putting back Listowel out weighs the cost of doing so it seems a no brainer to put it back and pick up the extra Levy the above people would generate for HRI.

I shall not comment further on this specific discussion as I have made my point quite clearly
and I hope most people can easily understand it and see the logic and we are just going round in circles.

[payuppal]

You are indeed going round in circles.

You define the punter as definitely betting on Kempton. Without thius assumption, your argument makes even less sense.

But he is no more committed to betting there than in Ireland, and anything HRI does to make it easier for him to do so is not in their interest.

Simples.

[Iron]

Let's say just 10% of the punters bet on Kempton - either because they've won at Listowel and think they're on a roll, or because they've lost at Listowel and want to win back their money.

Would it not be in the bookmaker's interest for the races to be a few minutes apart?

Jeff

You define the punter as definitely betting on Kempton. Without thius assumption, your argument makes even less sense.

[payuppal]

No, because the amount of money the betting shop punter loses each day is more or less fixed, and the average net result of betting on a race is going to be a loss.

Bets on UK races will take away from that fixed sum, reducing the amount to bet on Irish races and reducing HRI's take.

So HRI's best course of action is to make it as difficult as possible to bet on a UK race.

Given that an Irish punter is more inclined to bet on an Irish race, it makes no sense for them to alter the times if a UK and an Irish race clash.

Which is where we came in.

[Iron]

No, because the amount of money the betting shop punter loses each day is more or less fixed.

That's a big assumption. IMHO, the more races there are per day, the more a bookie will turn over per day on average.

I'll ask my local bookie tomorrow whether he takes more bets in the middle of the summer, when there are 80 odd races per day, or on a 2 meeting day in the middle of December, but I think I know what he'll say...

Jeff