Favourites

[Euler]

Very few winning favourites today!

[convoysur]

thanks to that new betangel video about the settings to lay the favourite at 10 euro max liability i got a nice lay in running earlier,,

[Euler]

15 out of the last 17 races have been won by something other than the 1st or 2nd favourite.

[Lagos]

About bloody time !


I have never see a set of results lkie it this year. Since about March with the driest spring on record favourite after favourite has been romping in. sometimes five or six on the bounce.
The last two or three weeks it has begun to turn round. Its a shame Adrian Massey has stopped doing his results page,..... i'm sure you would have made money by backing all of the favourites on here over the last six months.
Is there any other results analysis site where you could look at this?

[mpendle]

Lagos,
You would have lost 3.1% of your money to Betfair SP assuming 5% commission if you backed all industry SP favourites this turf season.
The strike rate is 31.5% compared to 31.4% last year and 31.7% in 2008 and 2009.
Only August this year would have been profitable.
In fact August over the last 4 years shows a profit to BSP. This is most likely due to the fact that the going is faster and more favourites tend to win on harder/faster ground.

Following the Betfair SP favourite, you would have lost 5.3% after commission, with a strike rate of 31.1%.

Source - Flatstats.co.uk

[Lagos]

Thanks for that. So very little difference in the ration of winning Favs.

I must say that really surprises me,does that include the Irish racng too?

[sweetybt]

I would say there has been a recent increase of horses winning who are not fancied pre race and not fancied in running.

[Lagos]

If that is right I hope it continues

[mpendle]

Thanks for that. So very little difference in the ration of winning Favs.

I must say that really surprises me,does that include the Irish racng too?

UK only.

[Euler]

Strange day yesterday, loads of favourites went in at Newton Abbot, but hardly any at the other two courses.

[andyfuller]

15 out of the last 17 races have been won by something other than the 1st or 2nd favourite.

Is this information just a point of note or do you feel that this impacts the market in that I assume you would be looking for support for the next favourite.

Can't really see what other use this information is from a trading view point unless I am missing something?

[Euler]

Just a point of note. I've been doing a lot of work in form at the moment and looking at its impact on the markets and these sorts of things are standing out more than I noticed in the past. No idea where or if this is leading anywhere but I love looking at new angles.

[andyfuller]

Good stuff - thought I might have been missing something. Might be interesting to look at what happens when a jockey or a trainer gets on a roll and the impact that has - obvious case being Frankie and his magnificent 7 - would have been fun to have been on the markets back then!

[hgodden]

Good stuff - thought I might have been missing something. Might be interesting to look at what happens when a jockey or a trainer gets on a roll and the impact that has - obvious case being Frankie and his magnificent 7 - would have been fun to have been on the markets back then!

I looked into both those things when they had multiple wins and the effect on subsequent runners that day, but in a general sense applied to all jockeys / trainers there was nothing of major note - often subsequent runners would be cut a little bit immediately (but not later) on betfair but with the poor liquidity so far from the race you can't make much.

On extreme examples like the magnificent 7 there's bound to be a much bigger and more sustained effect of course and there may well be with certain jockey's /trainers (and maybe more on a saturday) but I put quite a lot of research into that and was disappointed by the effect

[Euler]

Another curious day today. Today very few horses outside of the front two are winning. You could have made a fortune today backing the favourite or both the front two.