Today's Football
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Lynskey888
- Posts: 235
- Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2023 7:51 pm
PSG’s xG was 2.7 or 2.8-something so perhaps you can count yourself a little unfortunate.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 3958
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
The more I look at xG as a stat the more I understand a significant flaw in the concept.Lynskey888 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2024 11:02 pmPSG’s xG was 2.7 or 2.8-something so perhaps you can count yourself a little unfortunate.
A strongly favoured team that runs the match from kick off and wins 2-0 on cruise control can easily only have 1-2 xG for the whole game. But a strongly favoured team that can't get a lead will push harder and harder against a team that parks the bus, and may get 3-4 xG even if they end up drawing or winning by a late goal.
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Lynskey888
- Posts: 235
- Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2023 7:51 pm
I was trying to offer some solace to Derek. 
When a team dominate possession and can’t score, and they pound and pound against a low block, but never get in behind the defence, and all their shots are from wide, distant positions, I would expect that to result in an xG significantly lower than 3-4.
I’m not an xG disciple by any means, but in general I find it a helpful reflection of the quality of chances created in a match (the caveat being that not all xG models are created equal, I suspect.)
In that scenario, surely the dominant team will only achieve an xG of 3-4 (which is pretty high) if they create good quality opportunities?jamesedwards wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2024 11:31 pm
A strongly favoured team that can't get a lead will push harder and harder against a team that parks the bus, and may get 3-4 xG even if they end up drawing or winning by a late goal.
When a team dominate possession and can’t score, and they pound and pound against a low block, but never get in behind the defence, and all their shots are from wide, distant positions, I would expect that to result in an xG significantly lower than 3-4.
I’m not an xG disciple by any means, but in general I find it a helpful reflection of the quality of chances created in a match (the caveat being that not all xG models are created equal, I suspect.)
Tbh the more I trade the more I think that trading inplay footy is all about game sense overall, as the core skill, just like in competitive FPS games
Not sure how many could relate to that, but I have found countless similarities and game sense in both seems equally hard to quantify at first glance
Although in a nutshell it's simply the ability to process relevant variables in real time, and act accordingly with a probabilistic mindset
As fun as it would be to try and expand on that further it would go well beyond the scope of this thread
Generally I think it's not too difficult to understand bits of data after the fact etc, unlike in real time with a limited window of opportunity
Not sure how many could relate to that, but I have found countless similarities and game sense in both seems equally hard to quantify at first glance
Although in a nutshell it's simply the ability to process relevant variables in real time, and act accordingly with a probabilistic mindset
As fun as it would be to try and expand on that further it would go well beyond the scope of this thread
Generally I think it's not too difficult to understand bits of data after the fact etc, unlike in real time with a limited window of opportunity
Well it depends how you trade though. Trade like a FPS and its all guns blazing. Trade more like a turn based strategy and its more peaceful. In play sports trading is like playing competitive tennis or golf imo. Trying to execute cleanly under pressure and weighing risk up while trying to execute cleanly.
Overall game sense comes from watching too much sport or gaming too much!!
Xg is great to put a number on actual chances and its then judging whether much like the quote re Man Utd in the 90's "They always score, but sometimes they run out of time"
Overall game sense comes from watching too much sport or gaming too much!!
Xg is great to put a number on actual chances and its then judging whether much like the quote re Man Utd in the 90's "They always score, but sometimes they run out of time"
If you pick the bones out later the clues jump out and then next time you are faced with a similar pattern you are better equipped to divine the outcome.
Whether that is always possible in real time depends on lots of factors my biggest one is still mental accounting after all these years.... should automate everything for an easy life but would miss the cut and thrust and challenge of manual trading. Maybe I should take up bowls instead.
Whether that is always possible in real time depends on lots of factors my biggest one is still mental accounting after all these years.... should automate everything for an easy life but would miss the cut and thrust and challenge of manual trading. Maybe I should take up bowls instead.
This Liverpool team just aren't ruthless enough like the last one a few years ago, that's something that City and Arsenal are so I think one of them wins it
Even Sheff Utd came back into the game earlier in the week out of nowhere, I just knew it before HT, that and slow starts are really costing them
They saved the most wasteful performances against this United team three times in a row this season, absolutely embarrassing
Even Sheff Utd came back into the game earlier in the week out of nowhere, I just knew it before HT, that and slow starts are really costing them
They saved the most wasteful performances against this United team three times in a row this season, absolutely embarrassing
Utterly frustrating as a Liverpool supporter but I can still see arsenal dropping points, they have some difficult fixtures and CL to contend with.
City I don’t see dropping points, but if they do then possibly Brighton away or Chelsea sandwiched in between Real Madrid game.
Liverpool need to win every game now.
Cracking end to the season.
City I don’t see dropping points, but if they do then possibly Brighton away or Chelsea sandwiched in between Real Madrid game.
Liverpool need to win every game now.
Cracking end to the season.
Worst thing is they really tried not to be wasteful this time around and were under clear instructions to create clear cut oppos and not shoot on sight, which ended with them overplaying it completely and trying to walk it into the net like idiots
Can't see them winning all of the remaining matches, couldn't even see them getting this far without Jergen's black magic
Just watched MOTD and they’ve reiterated what you said - Liverpool overplayed it, trying to score the perfect goal.Kai wrote: ↑Sun Apr 07, 2024 6:13 pmWorst thing is they really tried not to be wasteful this time around and were under clear instructions to create clear cut oppos and not shoot on sight, which ended with them overplaying it completely and trying to walk it into the net like idiots
Can't see them winning all of the remaining matches, couldn't even see them getting this far without Jergen's black magic
Nunez and Salah had a chance each. Should have been in the back of the net or at-least challenged the keeper…. one of those games.
Draw isn’t the end of the world but GD deficit is less than ideal. Mentally, the pen was massive. Players returning from injury & a favourable fixture list - it’s still on… that could be an element of bias or wishful thinking though.
Caught some of the over reaction on the outright market but fully hedged on the top 3 for now.