Multiple Greyhound Strategy

[mgreenough]

Great read.....many thanks for posting.

My GH results for yesterday were also appalling!

Perry Barr, Monmore and Crayford all had a fair number of high-priced outsiders win yesterday. Might be worthy of watching as a 'back all at £1 strategy' would have made good return at those tracks.

Though I generally look at the LTP ranking of the winner for my strategies.There are long term trends that my last update thread has identified and I minimise or entirely avoid loss by staking only what I've won on a given strategy / track.

viewtopic.php?t=29056 for more on this and the last year's P&L results, etc...

CS

Thanks for that, it is certainly something to look into doing. I have gone through the strategies and decided to pick the most consistent and just roll with the one, as three going at one time maybe pushing it too far. Going to amend the stakes to £2 level stakes (laying) as mentioned by Getagrip86 above. I have amended my shared file taking out the stops and staking method and will run it through on practice mode tonight to ensure I have everything set correctly, then when happy will pick up where I left off at the weekend.

[Fugazi]

Thanks for the reply, I can say this has just hit a bad patch as well, as today was abysmal, it is the first two days where I have had over 40% loss of the bank. Beginning to think putting this thread on has jinxed it

Going to go back to practice mode and review the last couple of days of logs to see where/why it has gone wrong. I don't see it as losing money though, rather more like "buying data". The more I know about the losses the better it will be in the future. Bank stands at £62.62 so at least it is double the original £30 starting bank. So that's a win at least.

My main question of your method, is why stop when you hit x profit for the day?

It is just as likely to start losing money as it is to make further profit....

I suspect all it achieves is that it reduces volume and takes longer to find out if your method works or not...

The reason being is that when you chart the PL for the day it can start of great for example going up to £70-£80 then start slowly declining into negative figures, that was quite a rare event though, but could be the reverse also with a few wins upto £10 then slow reverse into the negative for the rest of the day . Thats why I started using 9am as a start time as by then the greatest decline had occurred and it was a more smoother +/- charting was seen (as it is the last 5 hours of racing in AUS so late evening and liquidity was better). In nearly all days the systems hit their first positive PL which normally allowed me to reach the targets by 10:30am on the AUS races and by at least 5 races on the UK dogs. This allowed for the odd loss to be hit on each also. But the last two days seemed to hit 3-4 losers consecutively which almost allowed no recovery even if left for the whole day, and would of only decline further if more losers were hit.

But still not giving up on what I have so far though, just re-running them as is in practice mode to see if it just a bad run or whether tweaks need to be made.

In this case then it is the time periods you want to set your parameters, not profit / loss

It is the times of the races that are impacting profitability. Though this could also just be chance and after a while you find it is a different time period causing losses

[Fugazi]

My main question of your method, is why stop when you hit x profit for the day?

It is just as likely to start losing money as it is to make further profit....

I suspect all it achieves is that it reduces volume and takes longer to find out if your method works or not...

Nearly every pro on this site will say the same thing.

Another way to look at it is that the upside is capped, but not the downside, so you can lose $57 in a day but can only win a little bit.

This is the main reason scalping fails . Profit capped at +1 but not possible to stop loss at -1 often dont get matched in time

However not quite the same in this scenario. Think of it like roulette. 10 blacks in a row. The chance of a black on the next go is still 50/50. Doesn't matter profit is capped if it just means no further races that day. Unless he is greening up when it hits that profit level as then he is taking rubbish value on the final race of his day. Long term will cause a loss additional to the 2 percent comission from trading randomly which may take a long time to realise as its just a thin slither of bad value one race a day.

This could explain why it has taken weeks to see the method fail - a bit of good variance initially but now things are evening out and the comission is catching up and maybe some negative EV from greening up on top.

[Crazyskier]

Great read.....many thanks for posting.

My GH results for yesterday were also appalling!

Perry Barr, Monmore and Crayford all had a fair number of high-priced outsiders win yesterday. Might be worthy of watching as a 'back all at £1 strategy' would have made good return at those tracks.

Though I generally look at the LTP ranking of the winner for my strategies.There are long term trends that my last update thread has identified and I minimise or entirely avoid loss by staking only what I've won on a given strategy / track.

viewtopic.php?t=29056 for more on this and the last year's P&L results, etc...

CS

Thanks for that, it is certainly something to look into doing. I have gone through the strategies and decided to pick the most consistent and just roll with the one, as three going at one time maybe pushing it too far. Going to amend the stakes to £2 level stakes (laying) as mentioned by Getagrip86 above. I have amended my shared file taking out the stops and staking method and will run it through on practice mode tonight to ensure I have everything set correctly, then when happy will pick up where I left off at the weekend.

You do know that you can have many strategies running at the same time - just use them per race or per track with x runners, etc.

I often have 7-8 different strategies across the 120 daily dogs races, just divided up per race, so each race can have a different strategy, depending on selection criteria.

Make a strategy for the race track and no. runners, grade, etc based upon historic results, rather than making one strategy try to fit all races.

CS

[Fugazi]

Perry Barr, Monmore and Crayford all had a fair number of high-priced outsiders win yesterday. Might be worthy of watching as a 'back all at £1 strategy' would have made good return at those tracks.

Though I generally look at the LTP ranking of the winner for my strategies.There are long term trends that my last update thread has identified and I minimise or entirely avoid loss by staking only what I've won on a given strategy / track.

viewtopic.php?t=29056 for more on this and the last year's P&L results, etc...

CS

Thanks for that, it is certainly something to look into doing. I have gone through the strategies and decided to pick the most consistent and just roll with the one, as three going at one time maybe pushing it too far. Going to amend the stakes to £2 level stakes (laying) as mentioned by Getagrip86 above. I have amended my shared file taking out the stops and staking method and will run it through on practice mode tonight to ensure I have everything set correctly, then when happy will pick up where I left off at the weekend.

You do know that you can have many strategies running at the same time - just use them per race or per track with x runners, etc.

I often have 7-8 different strategies across the 120 daily dogs races, just divided up per race, so each race can have a different strategy, depending on selection criteria.

Make a strategy for the race track and no. runners, grade, etc based upon historic results, rather than making one strategy try to fit all races.

CS

How are you tracking P/L ? Ive been altering my stakes by pennies so I can tell what was what in Betfair. Can't remember what automation people are using to track properly ?

[mgreenough]

Thats another issue I came up against as the Profit/loss shared file on here is good, but if you have two or more systems on the same races then the PL is shown for all not each. I was looking at maybe modifying the shared file to accommodate different systems by assigning different shared values for each. Or maybe as craxyskier said, split them out to different races so they dont conflict.

[Wishy]

Thanks CS.....noted for future reference

[getagrip68]

Just a couple of points regarding level stakes, it's important for checking if something works or not. Going forward you can alter that in line with your edge, so not every bet needs to be level stakes if you're confident you have a greater edge in certain scenarios. Also, for laying it should be a fixed liability, rather than stake.

[Crazyskier]

Thanks for that, it is certainly something to look into doing. I have gone through the strategies and decided to pick the most consistent and just roll with the one, as three going at one time maybe pushing it too far. Going to amend the stakes to £2 level stakes (laying) as mentioned by Getagrip86 above. I have amended my shared file taking out the stops and staking method and will run it through on practice mode tonight to ensure I have everything set correctly, then when happy will pick up where I left off at the weekend.

You do know that you can have many strategies running at the same time - just use them per race or per track with x runners, etc.

I often have 7-8 different strategies across the 120 daily dogs races, just divided up per race, so each race can have a different strategy, depending on selection criteria.

Make a strategy for the race track and no. runners, grade, etc based upon historic results, rather than making one strategy try to fit all races.

CS

How are you tracking P/L ? Ive been altering my stakes by pennies so I can tell what was what in Betfair. Can't remember what automation people are using to track properly ?

I manually write down the sum gains / losses of each different strategy / track and enter into a spreadsheet every evening before bed.

Those figures then determine stake size increases / reductions. More info in the thread I linked above.

CS