UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

[jamesedwards]

No overall majority now available to back at 11.5. I just loaded up some more.

[Derek27]

No overall majority now available to back at 11.5. I just loaded up some more.

I thought it might be value when you last posted it, at a shorter price. But I struggle to see it happening now, it's just getting from bad to worse for the Tories.

Walking home in the rain, I saw a woman have her umbrella turned inside out in the wind, and I thought, if only the wind picked up with a blast of rain/sleet while Sunak was giving his speech.

[jamesedwards]

No overall majority now available to back at 11.5. I just loaded up some more.

I thought it might be value when you last posted it, at a shorter price. But I struggle to see it happening now, it's just getting from bad to worse for the Tories.

I reckon it's closer to a 1-in-4 shot. It all depends on how much vote they lose to Reform and the surprise election has caught them on the hop.

[Naffman]

No overall majority now available to back at 11.5. I just loaded up some more.

I thought it might be value when you last posted it, at a shorter price. But I struggle to see it happening now, it's just getting from bad to worse for the Tories.

I reckon it's closer to a 1-in-4 shot. It all depends on how much vote they lose to Reform and the surprise election has caught them on the hop.

I do think the Tories are under-estimated a tad but I too don't see how Labour don't win a majority here, especially with the SNP looking so weak too.

[Archangel]

The 'How many seats will the conservatives lose market'

[Emmson]

I get a feeling the general population are still unaware of the catastrophe that is about to engulf the Tories, their % of vote is going to drop so dramatically we've never seen anything like it before with outgoing Conservative or Labour.

Historic Wipeout

[greenmark]

Abbot getting grumpy and chucking crap at Labour. I believe she is rock solid in her constituency. But attempting to undermine Labour now reeks of malicious revenge, even though she was sacked for good reason. It ain't only black people that suffer life-long racism.

[Archery1969]

Abbot getting grumpy and chucking crap at Labour. I believe she is rock solid in her constituency. But attempting to undermine Labour now reeks of malicious revenge, even though she was sacked for good reason. It ain't only black people that suffer life-long racism.

I imagine Abbot and Corbyn will be taking revenge along with a number of their supporters.

[Archery1969]

Is Labour harming itself by suspending all these left wing MPs so they can’t stand at the election ?

[greenmark]

Is Labour harming itself by suspending all these left wing MPs so they can’t stand at the election ?

Abbott has a healthy majority. Although her constituency has been expanded to include Tottenham to the north and more of hackney bordering on Islington to the south. So that could muddy the waters for her majority. But nontheless she is definitely trying to screw Labour. IMO it isn't Labour trying silence the Corbynites. It's about chucking people out that say really stupid things.
Overall majority for Labour still 1.11. Still no own goal.

[LeTiss]

Starmer clearly recognises it's his to lose, hence why he's now ridding the party of Corbyn supporters, such as Diane Abbott and Faiza Shaheen. He's also barred the woman hating, trans cultist Lloyd Russell-Moyle. Starmer knows that even though the country hates the Tories, the country also hates hard-left politics, This is exactly what Blair did in the mid 90's to rid Labour of the moronic militants that blighted Labour in the 80's

[jamesedwards]

No overall majority now available to back at 11.5. I just loaded up some more.

I thought it might be value when you last posted it, at a shorter price. But I struggle to see it happening now, it's just getting from bad to worse for the Tories.

I reckon it's closer to a 1-in-4 shot. It all depends on how much vote they lose to Reform and the surprise election has caught them on the hop.

Farage likely running for Parliament has ruined this bet.

[Euler]

Farage to make an emergency General Election announced at 4pm

[Derek27]

Farage becomes leader of Reform UK!

The reason he gave on Question Time for not being prepared to campaign to run for parliament was that he was busy hosting a TV show.

[Derek27]

YouGov projection: 194 seat Labour majority.